The 2016 US open returns to the fearsome Oakmont Country Club for its 116th edition. Oakmont’s lightning fast undulating greens and extensive bunkering make it arguably the toughest test in US golf.
Don’t expect the winning scores of 15 and 20 under you see routinely on the PGA tour, this will be golf at its most brutal with players battling to make par on every hole. Let’s sift through the favourites, the second tier chances and a couple of smokeys and see if we can find a winner.
Aussie Watch: Seven Aussies will tee it up – Jason Day, Adam Scott, Mark Leishman, Geoff Ogilvy, Cameron Smith, Steven Bowditch, and Aron Price.
The Big 3
Jason Day: World No.1 and playing with insatiable hunger, but does he want it too badly? Peerless short game this year, his chipping possibly the best in the world, putting not far behind. Waywardness off the tee a concern as was highlighted in the final round of the Memorial. Has already won three times this year, can he add another major trophy to the cabinet?
Prediction: He has the short game necessary to tame Oakmont’s devilish greens. Expect him to use iron off the tee to keep it in play like he did at the Players Championship. Will be right among it on the back nine Sunday, massive chance to be Australia’s third champion.
Jordan Spieth: Has he overcome the disaster that was the 12th at Augusta which saw his green jacket dreams shattered? Has had a mixed year but is coming off a very impressive win in his home state of Texas where his putter returned to the ridiculous form of 2015. Of the Big Three his ball striking can be the most wayward from the tee but makes up for it by being a phenomenal scrambler.
Prediction: The man with the magic putter is probably the favourite given the greens at Oakmont. The wildcard is his nerve being tested for the first time in a major since The Masters, will it hold up? If the putter of 2015 shows up, everyone is in trouble. The man to beat.
Rory McIlroy: Had an emotional and clutch win at his home open and followed it up with a very encouraging T4 at the Memorial. When he is on his iron play is exemplary allowing him to hit a lot of greens in regulation and have a multitude of birdie chances. His shaky putter undermines his iron game as he doesn’t convert his chances.
Prediction: Will be a frustrating week for Rory, his ball striking will be first class but his putter will let him down on the fast greens. Very safe bet for top ten but can’t see a win.
Some of the Second Tier Guys (too many to name them all)
Dustin Johnson: The nearly man of the last few majors with some heartbreaking defeats in particular at last year’s US Open where he three putted the last green to lose by a shot. Has the best combination of power and accuracy with the driver on tour. Let down by his wedge play and putter on the big stage.
Prediction: Like Rory, in the top ten but won’t hole enough putts. Another near miss for DJ.
Adam Scott: Often the forgotten man when it comes to majors lost in the discussion of the Big Three. Brings a lot to the table this year after two wins on tough golf courses earlier in the season. This will be the sternest test of his non broomstick putter.
Prediction: Don’t think the putter will hold up, could be a tough week for Scotty. Top 20.
Matt Kuchar: The form man on tour, six top tens in his last eight starts. Has a very streaky putter, when it is on he is perennially in contention.
Prediction: Can ride a hot putter into contention and could emerge from the best player not to win a major club.
Bubba Watson: The hardest player to get a read on Good Bubba could win, Bad Bubba could miss the cut by ten shots.
Prediction: Flip a coin – I tend to think we will see more of Bad Bubba then good Bubba.
Danny Willett: Masters Champion has a game built for continued contention in majors in the future.
Prediction: Around the mark but won’t win it.
Rickie Fowler: Had a phenomenal run in the majors in 2014 but hasn’t been able to back it up.
Prediction: Not his year, interest will surround what type of pants he wears.
Phil Mickelson: Has lefty won his last major? Missed the cut last time it was at Oakmont.
Prediciton: Battle to make the cut, may win best placed left hander.
Four smokeys I like to contend on the weekend
Brandt Snedeker, Branden Grace, Shane Lowry, and Zach Johnson
Predicted Winner: Jason Day.
Really going out on a limb picking the world No.1 however he has the short game to tame the fearsome greens and the resilience to grind out a win in tough conditions. He believes it’s his time and so do I.
Who do you think will win? Who’s your under the radar smokey? Who did I leave out?
Brendo
Guest
No it wasn't. He hasn't played at Oakmont before. His first second was at Congresional, then again at Merion.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
gee, the US Open sets up well for Day. Five starts in the event for 2nd, 59th, 2nd, 4th and 9th (with the vertigo issues). That first 2nd was at this course
Ryan Day
Roar Guru
Justin Rose was the one I regret not writing about, won the 2013 US open on a really tough track. Agree with your Spieth assessment his scrambling bails him out a lot, not sure you can scramble for four days at Oakmont too mentally and physically draining.
Lancey5times
Guest
I'm picking Rory on the back of recent form. I think he's due. J Day will certainly be in the mix as may a guy like Justin Rose. The combination of length, accuracy and effective short game will go a long way. I think any guy with a glaring weakness will struggle. Of your roughies I like Grace. He is quality and like Rose has no glaring gap in his game. I have serious doubts on Speith at the moment and around this track. I think his ball striking will get him in trouble a little too often.
Ryan Day
Roar Guru
Thanks for the comment mate. Always enjoy the US open more strategic and grinding golf rather than the target golf birdie fest that the PGA tour can be sometimes. Bill Haas is a good under the radar pick very unassuming and consistent player. Should be a great four days of golf.
Brendo
Guest
It's about time there was a decent Golf article on this site - the stuff that comes from the 'Experts' side leaves a lot to be desired. Great to see the US Open back at Oakmont, such a tough, yet beautiful course. I'd be surprised if the winner is better than par at this place. Similar to Merion a few years ago. I agree with your assessment, you can't go past Day at this point. Spieth could ride his putter into contention as well. I'd like to see Kuch get a major, or Phil grab the only one that has escaped him. More often than not, it's often someone who gets hot for the week that brings it home. Someone like Zach Johnson, Jimmy Walker, Bill Haas. Guys who are regulars, but have a chance to fly under the radar a bit.