State of Origin Game 2: Why Queensland will win

There’s very little doubt Queensland are going to lock away the 2016 State of Origin trophy this evening.

They’re a better team now than when the series started, and NSW are not.

Sadly, the preparation for the Blues hasn’t been ideal, while Queensland have known about their one omission for some time, and arguably are replacing Nate Myles with a superior player at the moment in Jacob Lillyman.

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» State of Origin key questions: Queensland edition

Losing Josh Morris, whether they want to admit it or not, is a blow for New South Wales. Dylan Walker copped a lot of flak after his non-performance in Game 1, some of it deserved and some of it not. But whether he can do the same job on Greg Inglis really is up for debate; you have to think that Morris holds a psychological edge over Inglis.

At this point, it’s Origin 1, Dylan Walker 0. Good luck containing one of the most damaging weapons in Origin history on his own paddock as he looks to respond to his critics.

And to that point, the equation is simple.

The Maroons will be better in Game 2 than they were in Game 1, and that will be enough. They were lucky to win in Sydney, with a few calls going their way (but they also had a few go against them) and in the end the Blues ran out of ideas and out of gas, with the trio of Cameron Smith, Johnathan Thurston and Cooper Cronk strangling the game.

Darius Boyd was exceptional in Game 1, and has been in wonderful form for the Broncos.

For those nervous about whether the former ball plonker could evolve from riding Inglis’ coattails and diving over the line, you’ll get another slice of your answer tonight.

With GI settling down in his career, there’s no better time for Queensland that Boyd should stand up. Put simply, he is the third-most important player for Queensland right now, after Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston.

He will be the hinge on which they build their attack.

Justin O’Neill was the focus with ball in hand for the Maroons in Game 1. You’d suggest that will change tonight, with more first men being played to test NSW’s decision making in defence. We will also see the ball actually given to Greg Inglis on the left.

That’s got to be good news for Corey Oates, who will be stinging for his first opportunity to stick the ball over the stripe.

On top of that, Myles being replaced improves Queensland. He’s been a great Origin player, and may continue to be, but right now he’s not got the metres in him he once did.

Add the crowd’s noise, a sold-out Suncorp Stadium baying for the blood of the enemy, spurring on the Queensland forwards through the middle and in defence, you have a recipe for a powerful display from the Queenslanders.

The Blues will be much worse off for being in Brisbane.

Last year, Game 3 was supposed to be an absolute nailbiter. Heading to Suncorp, people wondered whether NSW could truly upset the Origin status quo. Instead it was 52-6. Status quo reinforced.

During their decade-long dominance of the trophy, the Maroons have made a habit of taking series to Game 3. Is it all just an NRL conspiracy? No, but merely a reflection that nothing can be taken for granted in Origin, but that great teams will win more than they lose. And that’s what Queeensland did. Every time the series was in the balance, and they needed a big play from a key player, they got it. Nine out of ten is no accident.

But this is not one of those times where the series is in the balance. NSW had every chance to win Game 1, but they didn’t.

With Justin Hodges gone, Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston at their peaks but soon to be gone, and Corey Parker announcing his retirement, this really is approaching the end of an era for the Maroons.

Queensland will want to make sure that it continues, and New South Wales simply don’t have the firepower to stop them.

Sorry NSW fans, but this is game, set and match.