When the national swimming championships were held earlier this year, Australian sports fans had good reason to sit back, smile and at long last be confident that the Dolphins might get to swim away with a swag of gold medals.
Cam McEvoy, Mitch Larkin and the sisters Campbell were said to have near locks on gold medals. Throw in Emily Seebohn and Mack Horton, plus the near frightening 4×100 women’s freestyle relay and there was talk of Australia being the favourites for seven golds: The 100m men’s freestyle, the 100m women’s freestyle, 4x100m women’s freestyle relay, 100m men’s backstroke, 200m men’s backstroke and then with a bit of luck they could also sneak a gold out of the women/men’s 50m freestyle, 400m freestyle/1500m freestyle or a medley relay, or an individual women’s backstroke if Seebohm had a bit of luck go her way.
But, that was before the rest of the world had their trials and started to bank some times. Let’s have a look at where Australia still ranks in these events.
100m men’s freestyle
Cam McEvoy is still the quickest for the year by an astonishing seven tenths of a second, with Nathan Adrian leading the chase pack.
Verdict: McEvoy is still the favourite, but he’s going to have to replicate his national championship swim to make sure of it. We all remember Magnussen.
100m women’s freestyle
Well, there is literally no better way for Cate Campbell to silence any (if there was any to begin with) debate about her place as favourite in the event than by lowering a supersuit world record.
Verdict: She’d win this race swimming breaststroke. Start warming the vocal chords for our anthem.
4x100m women’s freestyle
Other regions have swum good times, and other countries have some fast swimmers. Make no mistake, the Australian women are seriously quick. Three in the top five for the world, all four in the top ten. Yeouch.
Verdict: Australia Post may as well start a print run on the stamps now.
100m men’s backstroke
Mitch Larkin has slipped to third in the ranks since the nationals, with David Plummer from the US .4 seconds ahead of him. In fact, he’s surrounded by a swathe of Americans, and knowing their history in this event…
Verdict: Will be on the podium for sure, and hopefully on the top of it if he replicates his 2015 form.
200m men’s backstroke
Larkin has seen off all the other national championships and stays on top, but Ryan Murphy all but matched his time.
Verdict: Same as the 100m.
400m men’s freestyle
Mack Horton swam an epic time in Australia to be the 3rd fastest of all time. We knew it was quick, but we knew Sun Yang had yet to swim. Well, Horton is 2 seconds ahead of Sun, who still hasn’t recaptured his 2013 form.
Verdict: Every chance to get gold, in fact this presents his best chance. While we waxed lyrically over his 1500m race (swimming a sub 14:40), Italian Gregorio Paltrinieri swam the second-fastest time in history with a 14:34 (just edging Hackett). Wow.
100m and 200m women’s backstroke
Seebohm is the joint fastest in the 100m, and behind Belinda Hocking in the 200m. She’s probably got a bit more in the tank for the 200m.
Verdict: She’s every chance for gold, and proved last year that she can perform strongly on the big stage in a solo swim.
50m women’s freestyle
Cate Campbell is still way faster than anyone else, but this race is a complete lottery most times. Bronte Campbell is fifth fastest in the world and the defending world champ.
Verdict: Australia have two legit chances, which is seriously awesome, but this could go to anyone on their day.
200m women’s butterfly
Madeline Groves swam a cracker in Adelaide, and no one has managed to beat it. Only two women are below the 2.06 time as well.
Verdict: A bonafide chance. Definitely the favourite.
Final verdict
Australia stunned most last year in Kazan with their better-than-expected haul. Their performances in the national championships proved it wasn’t a fluke. While some chances aren’t as solid as they once were (Mitch Larkin), others have subsequently found themselves in the position of race favourite.
I’m tipping that Australia will win the following: 100m men’s free, 100 women’s free, men’s 400m free, 4×100 women’s free, men’s 200m backstroke, women’s 200m backstroke, with genuine chances in the men’s 100m backstroke, women’s 50m freestyle, 200 women’s butterfly.
Six golds, with the potential for nine, plus a swag of minor medals. It’s not looked this good in both genders since Athens.
Can’t wait.
Punter
Guest
Not saying she will win, she is up against some quality but watch for big improvements from her & see her pushing the bigger names in the 200 free
commonwombat
Guest
This is how I see AUS prospects on an event by event basis: Men 50free: strong medal possibility but not certainty. some chance of Gold 100free: likely medal, Gold favourite 200free: 2 X conceivable medal possibilities, event is a lottery 400free: strong medal potential, Gold possibility although question over capacity to deliver at World level 1500free: as per 400free albeit lower Gold possibility 100back: likely medal, strong Gold possibility IF he tidies it up technically from Trials 200back:likely medal, narrow Gold favourite 100brs: medal highly unlikely, will do well to final 200brs: no competitor 100fly: negligible medal chance, unlikely to final 200fly: as per 100fly 200IM: possibly no competitor 400IM: medal highly unlikely, final = ceiling 4x100: conceivable medal possibility, Gold outside chance IF all fire on the night (very iffy) 4x200: conceivable minor medal chance, Gold would most likely require full planetary alignment 4x200: likely medal Women 50free: Likely medal, strong Gold favourite. v outside chance of 2nd medal 100free: Even stronger Gold favourite than 50free, strong possibility of 2nd medal 200free: Conceivable minor medal chance 400free: Conceivable minor medal chance 800free: Strong minor medal chance 100back: Likely medal, narrow Gold favourite. Outside chance of 2nd medal 200back: Likely medal, marginal Gold favourite, some chance of 2nd medal but event resembles a lottery 100brs: Very outside minor medal chance, final likely ceiling. 200brs: Outside minor medal chance 100fly: Conceivable minor medal chance 200fly: Have fastest time for year but competitors poor international performance scales this down to outside chance 200IM: Medal highly unlikely, final ceiling 400IM: Negligible medal chance 4x100: Would require illness/injury to both C1/C2 or a break not to win Gold 4x200: Conceivable minor medal chance but poor depth prevents a probable/likely grade 4xMED: Likely medal and narrow Gold favourite Worst case scenario = 2 Gold (W4X100,C1 100free). Conservative = 4 Gold (add C1 50free, McEvoy 100free) Next tier: Larkin 200back, Seebohm 100back Would think Jaco would be disappointed with less than 5-6 Gold. If they ended up with 7 or better, he'll probably be doing the "Happy Dance" around the pool deck. Should they hit double figure Gold, he's likely to be leading the parade at next year's Rio Carneval !! LOL
Nick
Roar Guru
Under normal circumstances I'd agree with you on McKeon, but no one will beat Ledecky.
Punter
Guest
The 2015 world championship team that did not qualify for final had no McEvoy, not rated No 1 in the world by a long way, no James Roberts, who while is no 15, is very close to time to some of the French guys, no Magussen, who is now also ranked no 22nd with improvements due to shoulder surgery. The only swimmer in that relay was a 16 year Chalmers, who is now about a second faster. On times of the top 4 Aussies, they match up quite well with the French & US team. The other one I like is Emma McKeon in the 200 Free, she has speed & now working on more endurance.
Nick
Roar Guru
I'm going to call this early and say we are zero chance to win the 4x100m mens freestyle. Recent form is not promising, in that the last Olympics was a shambles, the 2015 world championships effort was so poor there was automatic qualifying spot. The Australians only rank number one because they had to suffer the indignity of putting in a time at the national championships...the other countries haven't swum their best 4 in a race this year. I'd be wagering on the French or the US for this. The French have three swimmers in the top 10 (actually top 7). Good analysis on the rest though.
jameswm
Roar Guru
Brucey, seems like you missed the Men's 4 x 100 free. We'd have to be a good chance in that too. I think it's a bit like this STRONG FAVOURITES 1. Womens 50 free 2. women's 100 free 3. women's 4 x 100 free 4. Mens 100 free GOOD CHANCE TO WIN (currently ranked 1) 1. Women's 4 x 100 medley 2. Men’s 400m free, 3. men’s 200m backstroke 4. women's 200 back 5. Mens 4 x 100 free SHOULD PODIUM, GOLD POSSIBLE 1. men’s 100m backstroke 2. Womens 100 back 3. Mens 50 free 4. Mens 1500 free 5. Womens 800 free (but gold not possible) 6. Womens 200 fly I expect about 5 golds, but 10 wouldn't surprise me. And others are medal contenders. If we win something like 7 golds, 4 silver and 5 bronze, it's back to the glory days I reckon.
Punter
Guest
Good analysis Spruce. This is a very strong Australian team, we have some superstars like McEvoy, Campbell sisters, Seebohm, potential superstars Larkin, Horton & very strong back up. The women side, we have potential medalist in every freestyle event, including gold. Huge chances of 2 medals each in both women's backstroke. Good medal chances in the women's butterfly events with finalists almost certainties Outside medal chances, but strong finalists in women breastroke The women IMs getting to the finals will be achievement. Relay, all women's relays a big medal chance with 4x100 near certainly. The men's side, likewise have potential to medal in every event. Larkin favourite for medal in both men's backstroke. A finalists in breastroke, butterfly & IMs for men would be huge. Relays, big chance in all 3 relays.