It’s 1 vs 2 tonight with top spot on the line, it’s that simple. The Sydney Swans and Hawthorn Hawks will do battle in a thursday night blockbuster, extending an already fierce rivalry in the modern game. Follow all the live highlights and action from 7:20pm (AEST) on The Roar.
Three-time defending champions Hawthorn hold four points at the top of the AFL, but in what is one of the tightest top eight equations in recent memory, that lead can very quickly turn sour.
There is just one game (4 points) that separates the second-placed Swans, and the eighth-placed Kangaroos, meaning every win and loss can quite literally send any side four or five spots in any direction.
The Hawks have solidified themselves as strong premiership favourites as other sides slip over mid season road bumps, they’ve won their last seven games on the trott, with their last loss coming in Round 9 to, you guessed it, the Swans.
Sydney hold that win over the Hawks this year, winning a typically epic 14-point game over their fellow 2014 and 2012 Grand Finalists.
The Swans have turned the SCG into a fortress this year, winning six of seven games at their home ground this year, while the Hawks have lost three of their last four at the venue.
Team News
The Swans have made just the solitary change, bringing in Ben McGlynn from the NEAFL after some white hot form for the Swans reserve side. James Rose will make way for McGlynn, heading down to reserves himself for this week.
Joining Rose will be young Isaac Heeney, who has been left out for another week in favour of the more experienced McGlynn. Heeney was rested last week after a dip in form but the 20-year old was expected to return this week.
Hawks coach Alastair Clarkson has made three changes to his line up.
A hamstring injury to Liam Shiels is the only forced changed for Clarkson’s men, with the Victorian expected to miss up to a month.
In a big return, Brendan Whitecross will play his first AFL game in over a year, having recovered from back to back knee reconstructions in early 2015.
John O’Rourke and Angus Litherland have also been awarded a spot in the side at the expense of Daniel Howe and Billy Hartung, the former battling a calf niggle.
Prediction
This could very well be the game of the year outside of the finals. Two of the biggest and best sides in the comp with plenty of recent history to build from. It’s top of table AFL footy.
Hawthorn are probably the better side at the moment, with a string of big wins to their name, but if they had a kryptonite, it would be the Swans.
Sydney have stumbled here and there this season, but have a good run against the Hawks at home, and in the last couple of seasons.
I’m nearly tempted to say draw, but I think the Swans can sneak home in front of a rabid home crowd.
Swans to win by 3
Don Freo
Guest
Umpires that put their head in the sand.
DeanM
Guest
Sorry to make you feel inadequate Nikko, best you just learn to live with Sydney success having less merit due to the success been purchased by AFL HQ. 9.8 percent extra salary cap is what it equates to and the AFL try to dress it up with the name COLA. If it was truly a cost of living allowance it would be significantly less and it would be scaled around the country to reflect the cost of living. During the mining boom cost of living in Perth was on par with Sydney yet 0 COLA. It is cheaper to live in Adelaide in comparison to even Brisbane and Melbourne in that order, yet no COLA. So it is a fact to say COLA as it is not scaled is a leg up for Sydney. Now they have the academies and while the Swans is not the extreme rort like the GWS academy it still as it continues to grow could potentially give Sydney access to top 10 talent regularly regardless of their end of season ladder position. GWS and to a lesser extent Sydney's academy will defeat the purpose of the draft system. There is plenty of good things about the academies I just think the max discount should be 20 percent (no bundling picks) and reflect the input the club/AFL has made into the player. If they join the academy at 15+ the discount should be scaled less accordingly. Also they should not be able to bundle together a few picks in the 30's 40's to get a top 5,10 player.
Nikko
Guest
Tell me about the facts and how COLA worked DeanM? You had no facts. you repeated what unintelligent people know about COLA. Blah blab blah and yeah COLA. Go on tell me about Cola and how Sydney "got a leg up".
DeanM
Guest
I presented facts, you presented conspiracy theories born from jealousy.
EddyJ
Guest
But if there are close matches influenced by poor decisions by umpires, surely that is going to be an issue of discussion? And when those poor decisions by umpires tend to favour one side over another, surely that's going to be another of discussion? As I've mentioned before, umpires are not biased, but favour certain teams because of their 'aura' – it's what happens in soccer with the big teams such as Brazil, Germany, Italy. The 50:50 decisions tend to favour these teams because a referee is thinking "I'm not sure if that was a foul, but it's Germany, and they wouldn't do a foul like that – because it's Germany". There's research available about this – subconscious bias in sport. And it happens here. Stars are favoured more than unknown players. The "bigger" Melbourne teams get favoured too, just like Collingwood was during 2010 and 2011, and Geelong during 2007–2011. The laws committee said that the Jack 50-penalty was a mistake. That's not some commentator, or an idiot from the stand, it's a member of the AFL laws committee. And it just happened to be a call that brought Hawthorn back into the match. The umpires are not deliberately biased, but are influenced by things other than what happens in front of their eyes.
Don Freo
Guest
Unfairness doesn't have a patent. If it does, Hawthorn owns that patent.
Penster
Guest
I'm merely responding to rubbish claims about umpires favouring sides. It's a hard job, they get booed incessantly (but it's only "bullying" when players are booed apparently) and whenever teams get beaten by small margins they turn to blame the umpires, which is patently unfair.
paulywalnuts
Guest
ROFL, "almost killed". You do realise Wingard wasn't injured, don't you? There's a few levels to get through from "unhurt" to "dead".
Mark
Guest
But the Hodge tackle before that was very dangerous so it evened out.
EddyJ
Guest
Hawthorn were clearly the better team in 2014 and 2015, they played their best football on the day of the Grand Final, and that's all that matters – totally smashed Sydney and then West Coast. But, received some very favourable decisions in 2015 Preliminary Final against Fremantle. Not saying it won the game for them, because Fremantle made some very poor decisions in that game. Umpires don't make a team win by 27 points. Last night against Sydney, had some very favourable decisions. Umpiring bias is sub-conscious, not deliberate, but my goodness, Hawthorn do tend to get the benefit of the doubt. I guess it all evens out eventually, but seems like it's uneven for more teams than others. And does anybody really believe that Luke Hodge didn't get a favourable decision when he almost killed that Port Adelaide player by forcing him into the goalpost? Can't have "Hodgie" idle in the stands for two long. Any other player would have been rubbed out for months (except if it was Sam Mitchell). Even the laws committee said the Jack 50-metre penalty was incorrect. Hawthorn are obviously a very good team, but not sure why the umpires and the judiciary believe they need that 'little bit extra' to make it a sure thing.
Damo
Guest
Take away the massive leg ups the Hawks get from the umpires and the judiciary and see how they go. They would not have won 3 in a row as most people know.
Damo
Guest
Geez Penster. For someome who follows a team who has one the last 3 premierships you Hawthorn fans are mighty defensive. If your so good why do you care what others think?
EddyJ
Guest
Just have a read of this will you? Not my words, but from the AFL Laws Committee. I thought when it happened that it wasn't a 50-metre penalty. But doesn't matter, too late now. Your glorious Hawks are on top of the ladder, instead of Sydney, who will now go to seventh. Read it and enjoy!: “Penalty against Sydney Swans' Kieren Jack was a mistake, says AFL lawmaker. A member of the AFL's laws of the game committee has conceded umpires made a mistake in handing a costly 50-metre penalty against Sydney captain Kieren Jack on Thursday night.” http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-2016-afl-laws-of-the-game-committee-member-says-umpires-erred-in-50metre-penalty-against-sydney-swans-captain-kieren-jack-20160715-gq6kla.html
me too
Guest
The greatest clutch team got up over a poor clutch team. Burgoyne and Rioli stood up when needed, and there's the game. And what a game. The Hawks keep getting written off by those who hope a prediction will somehow make it so. These guys just keep doing it and are on the verge of becoming indisputably the greatest team of all time. For Sydney they can take heart that they matched them almost all the way and have many weeks still left to improve that extra bit. Saw nothing to suggest these two won't meet up on the last day of the season. Perhaps only an away prelim against the Crows could deny the Swans? Looking forward to the finals.
Penster
Guest
Don you consistently out yourself as someone with no real understanding of the game, a rabid, grassy knolled conspiracy theorist, that's what I like about you.The Hawks were fixtured according to their ladder finish last year. Not their fault Freo are tanking and WCE have developed travel sickness.
Penster
Guest
No Eddy, the Hawks didn't smash the Swans, and it took a woeful performance from them to lose narrowly a match that they should, on paper, have won comfortably. For sure the Hawks are not the team they were a couple of years ago, they've been diminishing for 2 years now. West Coast "should" have won in 2015, Sydney "should" have won in 2014. And given you've complained about no one commenting on other "million dollar" forward lines - how come punters jump on narrow wins by the Hawks, but not narrow wins by other teams? There's been 14 of them this season.
EddyJ
Guest
My goodness, this rubbish about the Swans’ million dollar forward line. Guess what? Every AFL team has got a million-dollar forward line. What about Western Bulldogs million-dollar forward line? No-one ever complains about Tom Boyd's contract, that is worth more per season than Franklin’s. So, Sydney's performance was so woeful, that they only lost by 5 points? Sure, their second quarter was abysmal, but a better team (like the Hawthorn of 2012–2015) would have smashed the Swans. But they didn't.
Terry
Guest
Swans are Horrendous ball users even on the postage stamp SCG ... Shocking foot skills.. On the big MCG they will struggle big time .. .They could drop out of the four permanently if they are not careful ...
Terry
Guest
Burgoyne with the 3 MVP votes and your`re spot on Connor...
Perry Bridge
Guest
Umpiring is a distraction normally - there will be bad umpiring calls and the Hawks seem to have an intimidation factor about them - after all they are tough so they don't play for free kicks!! However for the Swans delivery inside 50 let them down over and over. Certainly Tippett was missed and even Heeney. The Swans had their chances. btw astounded Chris Donlon missed Sam Mitchell's dropping the ball - but, some players get more leeway than others it seems and Mitchell is universally respected.