No one should bet their house against Australia winning ten swimming gold medals in Rio next month – more sensible predictions range from three to seven. But it only takes several favourites to peak, and the odd dark horse to glow incandescent under the Olympic blowtorch, and we’re up in double digits.
Specifically, this feat requires a quartet of doubles from sprinters Campbells and Cam, and backstrokers Seebohm and Larkin for us to snare the first eight golds.
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Add the supposed ‘lock’ of the women’s 4X100 freestyle relay, a plausible Mack Horton 400m freestyle gold, and a very possible 200m ‘fly to Madeline Groves, and that’s the “deca”.
But wait, there’s more. A maybe-maybe 1500m gold to Horton would take it to 11, and neither is it out of the question for rapidly ascendant teen Georgia Bohl to challenge for the 100m breaststroke.
Then if Bohl “only” gets close, how could we not be mild favourites for the medley relay? A maverick men’s 4x100m freestyle gold to deny France, anyone? Emma McKeon to shrug off the jinx of family pedigree to topple Ledecky for the 200m free? (to make it 14 golds.)
These are not predictions, of course. They are just dizzy ducks that could line up in a row of lucky days.
But then, neither would I tempt homelessness by betting my house to a brick against us winning zero gold medals. That’s right, zero. Stranger things have happened in sport. Remember New Zealand being seven up in the last America’s Cup? What were the odds they’d lose? Remember Sally Robbins in Athens? Our solitary bronze medal in Montreal? Lousy London?
And hasn’t Cam McEvoy been publicly complaining that his “feel for the water” has inconveniently deserted him of late? Didn’t Mack Horton roll his Land Rover recently?
While few who’ve actually competed in elite sport are ever surprised by crazy outcomes, commentators will continue to use cliches like choke, bottle and kahunas to denigrate or eulogise heroes raised and fallen.
And beyond this glib pathos is a creeping sense that all high profile sport has become a little circus-like. That’s circus, as in jugglers, freaks, strong men, dangerous animal acts, and the trapeze. As in ancient Rome’s bread and circuses for the masses. As in paying your money and leaving the big top dazzled and impressed, but not inspired.
That’s inspired, as in “maybe my children would love to do that.” Or “I”ll never stop wondering how she overcame the odds.”
And maybe modern sport simply is a curious new circus, not least because there may be more millionaires in the Rio Olympic Village than in any other village on earth.
We will likely be impressed, we might gasp, cheer, boo, but how often will we be inspired by Rio feats? We will also wonder whose endorsement value has gone through the roof and who’s doping. And then we might ask how many of those dopers are doing it surreptitiously, or via approved doctors’ prescriptions for ailments which should otherwise have them incapable of walking unassisted to their letterbox.
But back to our magnificent swimming team. They are of course, inevitably caught up in this new juggernaut of professional careerism. And why wouldn’t they be? Rivers of public funding over the past few decades have enabled them to pursue their dreams well past the typical teen use-by dates of past aspirants.
Most of our medal chances are in fact businessmen and women, all self-employed and marketing a product which has withstood the world’s most rigorous quality controls – their own bodies.
They also have managers to remind them what that product is worth. Most will insist they still compete for the thrill of being the best, but they have investments, drive a late model car, and have an idea of how many houses Olympic gold can buy.
Therefore, we no longer have to wonder exactly what inspires them to be so different, because the difference is no longer so great – they have a set of skills and a job like rest of us. Except that perhaps their job performance is tested a little more rigorously.
But what makes our Rio swimmers so impressive is that, collectively, they seem one of the most cheerful, clever, and humble circus acts to be leaving our shores for some time. That’s inspiring.
So good luck to them on the high wire of public expectations, come Rio.
Punter
Guest
Great summary Commonwombat, so great to see Australia competitive in so many events. Australia very strong in men & women freestyle. I do like the M4X100 better then you though, think they are big chance.
commonwombat
Guest
My "paw in the water" on an event by event basis. My gradings are on scale: Favourites - self explanatory; Likely medal - highly probably; Conceivable - realistic chance without being a secure bet, Outside - self explanatory, unlikely but within the realms of possibility MEN 50free: McEvoy conceivable medal chance 100free: McEvoy likely medal, strong Gold chance 200free: TFH outside medal chance, McEvoy better over shorter trip 400free: Horton conceivable medal chance, Gold possible however Kazan still leaves me wary 1500free: as per 400free albeit dimmer Gold chance 100back: Larkin likely medal, Gold conceivable IF he tidies up technically from Trials 200back: as per 100back but with Larkin v narrow Gold favourite 100brs: extremely unlikely. Packard would do well to final 200brs: no competitor 100fly: categorical NO 200fly: as per 100fly 200IM: probably no competitor 400IM: extremely unlikely, TFH ceiling is final 4x100: conceivable medal chance, could collect Gold IF planets are all in alignment & EVERYBODY fires (similar odds for either occuring) 4x200: conceivable minor medal chance but has same issue as 4x100 of erratic performers 4xMED: likely minor medal on the grounds of having strong bookends but poor middle legs preclude anything more WOMEN 50free: C1 clear favourite. C2 outside chance of minor medal due to injury/illness plagued year 100free: C1 clear favourite. C2 likely minor medal 200free: McKeon conceivable minor medal chance. 400free: Ashwood very conceivable minor medal chance but one of a ruck at around the same time fighting for bronze 800free: as per 400free albeit silver is also in play 100back: Seebohm narrow Gold favourite. Wilson outside minor medal chance 200back: Seebohm ext narrow Gold favourite. Hocking minor medal chance 100brs: Bohl v outside minor medal chance, will req good PB 200brs: McKeown conceivable minor medal chance 100fly: McKeon conceivable minor medal chance albeit req good PB 200fly: Groves outside medal chance, her v poor international record counts against her 200IM: medal highly unlikely. Coutts topside = final 400IM: extremely unlikely 4x100: v strong Gold favourites, would require a break or both C1/C2 injury or illness to lose 4x200: conceivable bronze medal chance but fall away terribly after McK & Barratt 4xMED: ext narrow Gold favourites, will depend on whether Bohl & McKeon have good meets. In essence this relay will go to whichever of AUS or USA women's teams has "the momentum"/stronger meet. I see 4 legitimately strong/secure bets for Gold (W4X100, C1 50/100, McEvoy 100). Both Seebohm & Larkin could repeat their Kazan doubles but I'm leaning towards them both batting 1 from 2 which gets us to 6 Gold. From thereon, it gets a little more "eqiivocal". W4MED has a very real chance but this event is very evenly poised between USA & AUS & the team with the "momentum" is likely to win. Horton is "plausible" but has question marks, ditto M4X100. Methinks that if they end up with more than 7 golds, Jaco Verhaeren is likely to be doing the happy dance around the pool deck. If they managed 10 or more, then he's likely to be leading the parade in next year's Rio Carneval !! Total medals, I can see a conceivable 14. Top side, I'm struggling to push it beyond 18-19 as whatever outsiders that may "get up" are likely to be traded-off by the expected ones that failed to deliver.
ted kemp
Guest
Nice rundown, Brad. I saw most of the US trials. I watched Phelps at the World's a few years back in BC, watched him in these trials and he'll be a threat in Rio. An amazing career. You had a pretty good one, too - Aussie champ in the 2, four, eight free and the 100 and 200 backstroke - not bad. Ledecky, Missy, Seebohm, the sisters - it's gonna be an alligator pool.
jameswm
Roar Guru
McEvoy has lots his feel for the water? If he struggles, there goes 3 potential golds, and one supposed lock.
Punter
Guest
Australia is competitive in every freestyle events, both men & women, plus the backstrokes. They are also competitive in all the relays as well as Women's Breastrokes & Butterflys. They will struggle in both men & womens IMs & men's breast & fly.