The penultimate stage in the Alps sees the riders head back into France for Stage 19 of the 2016 Tour de France.
Four difficult classified climbs will greet the riders on their 146 kilometre route from Albertville to Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc.
I say four difficult climbs, however the riders will start the stage climbing the non classified climb of the Col de Tamie, which is 5.5 kilometres and averages out at 6.5 per cent. On any normal day this would easily be a category two climb, but today, it goes unrecognised.
This climb is completed at the 8.5 kilometres mark, and for the next 25 kilometres they will be descending into the valley before heading through the early intermediate sprint point in the town of Doussard. Following this only a few kilometres later is the start of the first classified climb of the day.
The first category climb of the Col de la Forclaz de Montmin averages out at just under 7 per cent for 10 kilometres, with steep sections of above 15 per cent. If the break has not already distinguished itself on the first climb of the day, then it should on the slopes of this climb. At the summit of the climb, the riders will have 103 kilometres to go on the stage.
It is then another fairly long descent of around 20 kilometres before the riders set themselves up for the second category climb of the Col de la Forclaz de Quiege, which is similar in length and gradient to that of the unclassified Col de Tamie at the start of the stage. It is then a short but technical descent before the riders hit the hardest climb on the stages route.
At 12.5 kilometres at an average gradient of just above 8.1 percent, the hors category climb of the Montee de Bisanne is the both the steepest and the longest of the stage, and could offer the first real launching pad for an attack from either the breakaway, or the general classification favourites. Lets be frank though, l doubt we will see any movement from the main contenders in the race, if the first 18 stages of the race are anything to go by.
However, the final half of the climb is around 9 per cent, so we could most definetly see the first selections of the stage being made.
From the top of the climb at 50 kilometres to go, to 10 kilometres to go at the start of the final climb, the road generally descends, however, there is a uncategorised climb halfway down the climb which will once again soften the riders before the final climb to the finish.
The climb to the mountain top finish in Saint Gervais Mont Blanc is a 10 kilometres climb at 8 per cent, with steep sections over 15 per cent.
There are three parts to the climb, with the first 3 kilometres featuring an average gradient of above 10 per cent. However, from 7 kilometres to go, the road flattens out into a false flat before heading up slightly steeper slopes of around 5 per cent before the 4 kilometre to go point. From there on in, the average gradient is 9 per cent.
This is the perfect climb for Team Sky to control the pace and bring back any attackers which try there hand on the early slopes.
If Sky have the numbers, they can hang out the early attackers to dry, before taking them back on the flatter section, where the riders will get a slight advantage from sitting in the wheels.
Sky therefore will only fail if they come into the final climb with only one or two riders left to support Froome; something which has not happened so far this Tour.
Even though Rafal Majka has a 83 point lead, there is still the possibility mathematically that Thomas De Gendt can take the King of the Mountains jersey, however, l doubt that will happen. That probably won’t stop Majka from looking for the stage win he has been so desperately close to getting throughout the race
Other riders to watch out for today: Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar), Fabio Aru (Astana), Roman Kreuziger (Tinkoff), Romain Bardet (AG2R La Mondiale), Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo), Richie Porte (BMC), Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha), Daniel Martin (Etixx-Quickstep), Louis Meintjes (Lampre) and Adam Yates (Orica BikeExchange).
Geoff Parkes
Expert
None of the chasing GC contenders have a chance of beating Froome if they wait for the HC or final climb and Sky are all together. If they actually believe they can beat him and, as you say James, have the guts to try, then their only chance is to go straight from the flag fall - full gas up the first climb and don't look back. They probably don't have a show doing this either, but gee it would make the stage far more interesting to watch!
jameswm
Roar Guru
Will Richie have the guts to make a break on the HC climb? I doubt it, based on the Tour so far. Ideally he could get a rider or two (like TJ) in a break, so they are there to help when the yellow group catches up. He'll probably have a crack on the final category 1 climb, but the flat bit in the middle of it worries me. It gives his rivals a chance to catch their breath, and turns it into a half climb. Hard to make up much time on that. if only the bike held up early on. He's the 2nd best GC rider there without any real doubt.