Could the AFL’s top four be settled? Hawthorn, GWS, Sydney and Geelong occupy the prized spots with five matches to play, and they may just be able to ward off any challenge.
With Adelaide losing to the Cats, the Crows have dropped to sixth – equal on 48 points with the Giants, Swans and Cats but behind on percentage.
West Coast are in fifth, while the Western Bulldogs are also on 48 points but are further behind on percentage.
Hawthorn are safe with a two-game advantage over the pack.
Now, you may think with such congestion, it’s silly to suggest the top four is locked.
But here’s the kicker: the teams currently in the four don’t have any games against each other or the next most dangerous side (Adelaide) in the run home.
There are danger games, of course. Hawthorn and GWS do face West Coast. Geelong will go up against the Western Bulldogs. Three of them play North Melbourne.
However, in each case, the top four side will almost certainly start favourite – perhaps heavy favourite.
The double chances could be sorted.
As for this week’s rankings, there was no change at the top despite Adelaide’s loss.
I was ready to type the words “Meet your new leader” but alas, the Crows had enough credits in the bank from their form leading into the round to maintain top spot in the rankings.
Remember these rankings look further back than just the last week or two, though those matches are given extra importance.
Rest assured, Hawthorn’s case for being on top continues to grow.
No change // Ladder: 6th (12W, 5L)
After the game, Don Pike brought up inside 50s and it’s an interesting point. Every time Adelaide have had fewer than 50 inside 50s, they’ve lost. Only once – in Round 1 – have they been beaten with more than 50. Their best football coincided with a run of games with 60 inside 50s or more. Getting supply to their gun forwards is key.
No change // Ladder: 1st (14W, 3L)
Sam Mitchell was in fine form in his 300th game with 38 disposals as the Hawks again recorded a strong win, this time against Richmond. It feels like the Hawks have hit a switch and are making a very serious run at four flags in a row.
No change // Ladder: 3rd (12W, 5L)
The Swans’ home form looked ominous earlier in the season. Less so now. Since winning their first six at the SCG by an average of 51 points – a run that included worthy opponents like GWS, West Coast and North Melbourne – they’ve now fallen to the Western Bulldogs (by four) and Hawthorn (by five) and survived a threat from Carlton to win by six.
+3 // Ladder: 4th (12W, 5L)
The Cats showed a return to form against Adelaide. Tom Hawkins may have also broken out of a rough patch by kicking four goals.
-1 // Ladder: 2nd (12W, 5L)
The Giants will be hoping there’s not much in Shane Mumford’s knee injury, though apparently the man himself was ready to run back out in the final minutes. Good interstate win against Port Adelaide.
-1 // Ladder: 5th (12W, 5L)
That’s the second week in a row where the Eagles narrowly put away a weaker side. They’re winning, sure, but they’re not playing convincing footy. It may fly against Collingwood and Fremantle in the next fortnight, but GWS, Hawthorn and Adelaide in the final three rounds will most definitely punish it.
+1 // Ladder: 10th (8W, 9L)
The Power have played in six games decided by four goals or less. They’ve won zero. Against GWS, their skills late weren’t up to the task of winning the match. That may well be their season.
-2 // Ladder: 7th (12W, 5L)
Another week where the Bulldogs would like to hit the rewind button and take back some devastating injuries. This time, the seasons of Mitch Wallis and Jack Redpath were ended. Unfortunately, this is the story of the Bulldogs’ year. The bright side is looking at how well they’ve performed in spite of it all.
+1 // Ladder: 8th (11W, 6L)
The Roos needed a win and they delivered against Collingwood, but it’s on again this week with St Kilda coming up. If they win that, the eight should be settled.
-1 // Ladder: 12th (7W, 10L)
The Pies were blitzed 6.5 to 2.2 in the first quarter and fell further behind in the second. Not quite the stuff of a side truly believing in the possibility of playing finals.
+1 // Ladder: 9th (9W, 8L)
The Saints have had some head-scratchers this year but the last fortnight has been positive. Jack Steven continued a good season with 39 disposals in the win over the Western Bulldogs.
-1 // Ladder: 11th (7W, 10L)
You couldn’t ask for much more against West Coast. On the stats front, it’s hard to believe the Demons lost. The ball was in their forward half for 63 per cent of the match.
+1 // Ladder: 14th (6W, 11L)
A competitive effort by the Blues against the Swans, though they fell six points short. Four players had 30 or more touches: Kade Simpson, Patrick Cripps, Bryce Gibbs and Sam Docherty. Ed Curnow went close and also kicked a couple.
-1 // Ladder: 13th (7W, 10L)
Another week, another debate over the value of a Dustin Martin performance. This time, it was a bit shrewd of Damien Hardwick to mention it after a 70-point loss. Attention, consider yourself deflected.
+1 // Ladder: 15th (6W, 11L)
The talls had a big say against Fremantle, with Sam Day and Tom Lynch kicking four along with Peter Wright’s three. In what could’ve been an ugly afternoon, the Suns had a good win.
-1 // Ladder: 16th (3W, 14L)
Freo went into half time ahead but dropped away thereafter, as was the case a week earlier against Geelong.
No change // Ladder: 17th (2W, 15L)
The Lions lost the inside 50 count and had fewer scoring shots but good kicking is good football and the final margin (37 points) was convincing. Good to see leaders come to the fore. Tom Rockliff, Daniel Rich and Dayne Zorko all played well.
No change // Ladder: 18th (1W, 16L)
The wooden spoon is now almost certainly going to the Bombers. Where was the Daniel Rich tag against Brisbane? It might have stopped some of the Lions’ drive (Rich had nine rebound 50s and seven inside 50s).
JohnDee
Guest
You have to go back to 2006 to find a team that has come from outside the top 2 in the percentage rankings to win the flag (WCE had the third highest in that year) so that's once in ten years that a team outside of the top 2 has won it. Still, not a big sample size, but the point still stands. It's rare for a team that doesn't have an outstanding percentage to win the flag, and the Hawks % is (currently) not in that upper echelon.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
It's a very small sample size, but you've stretched it a bit there to say it's top 2 percentage or bust. Essentially in most of those years the higher percentage hasn't mattered in determining the premiership, with the team with the lower percentage trumping
JohnDee
Guest
Jack - Look at who has won the GF for the past 5 seasons and their accompanying percentage ranking for the year: 2015 - Hawks (158% - 1st) - Fremantle finished a game clear on top, 5th best %. Hawks 3rd on the ladder at end of season. 2014 - Hawks (140% - 2nd) - Sydney finished on top, equal wins with Hawthorn though with a slightly better % (142%). 2013 - Hawks (135% - 1st) - Hawks also finished 1 game clear on top of the ladder. 2012 - Sydney (140% - 2nd) - Hawks finished on top with the highest % (158%). Sydney 3rd on the ladder at end of season 2011 - Geelong (157% - 2nd) - Cats finished 2nd on the ladder, behind Collingwood who also had the highest percentage (167%) My point? If short term history has anything to say about it, once a team is in the top 4 W/L isn't all too important; however if you're percentage isn't top 2 in the league, you're not winning the premiership. Hawks currently have the 6th best percentage in the league, so they'll be going against the trend should they make it 4 in a row this year.
Jack
Guest
Anon, Percentage matters not when you are two games clear atop the table with Blues Demons Roos Pies games to come...HAHAHA
anon
Guest
Yet the Hawks are 4th for attack, 6th for defence, 6th for percentage. Over a decent sample size too. They might have gone up another gear after good wins 3 weeks running, but the fact remains that they have only stumbled across the line against top 8 teams (except flat track bully West Coast).
Lroy
Guest
Ha ha ha ... I know and Im not even a Hawks fan...Eagles fall over the line at home... Crows get thumped.. Swans nearly get upset by the Blues but apparently they are all going ok.. the Hawks dismember a side which had credentials (pretentions??) of being a top side and it means they are badly out of form.. Oh well... if its any consolation 99% of footy fans would be happy to have the problems that the Hawks have ;-)
fair suck of the sav
Guest
Crows games against Essendon and Brisbane become important now in terms of percentage. if they increase their percentage by 4-5% while winning they are every chance to move back into the Top 4.
Peppsy
Roar Guru
Hawthorn have arguably performed best of all teams in their losses, with only 1 loss that wasn't down to accuracy. No other team has managed that.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Cheers for the comments guys. Think people are forgetting that prior to the past fortnight, which has been impressive, the Saints allowed Essendon to get within two goals. The week before that they lost to Gold Coast (!) by 40. You've got to weigh up their good and their bad.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Simple Rick -- both the Dogs and Power lost by similar amounts (15/19) but the Dogs were playing a lesser opponent while Port were playing a pretty respected opponent (in the four on the ladder, fifth in these rankings). The Dogs subsequently took more of a hit to their ranking, enough to fall below Port. Both teams went backwards, but one team more than the other, hence the (admittedly lucky) +1.
anon
Guest
These power rankings make me scratch my head more and more every week. 1. GWS - I said last week if GWS have a convincing win then they're back in pole position. And they did that. Won convincingly in tough conditions. Total domination after half time. Best percentage in the league. Beaten all the contenders except Adelaide (and that was away). 2. Hawthorn - Tough not to put them in first given their big win, but until they put a hurting on a top 8 team other than West Coast, then I'm not convinced. 6th best percentage, 4th for points for, 6th for points against. Needed direct umpire interference to stumble over the line against Adelaide and Sydney. Got lucky to beat the Bulldogs, stumbled over the line against Saints and North, beaten by Geelong and uncompetitive against GWS. 3. Adelaide - I have thought their midfield is suspect and won't stand up in finals. They were supposed to lose this game though. Geelong is tough to beat in Geelong. 4. Sydney - Looking tired. They're entitled to one close win over a bad side. I'll have to wait to see if this is a trend or a phase of the season. 5. Geelong - You don't know what Geelong is going to turn up, and they'll need to play their A-game 3 weeks in a row in the finals which is unlikely. 6. West Coast - 6, 7 and 8 are cooked, but West Coast is the best of a bad bunch. Can't even call themselves flat track bullies any longer. 7. Western Bulldogs - Already had them written off because of their lack of scoring, exhausting style, and injuries. Put a fork in them. 8. North Melbourne - You could make a case for putting them 7th, but either way, they're total pretenders.
Brian
Guest
Eagles still have GWS and Adelaide away as well Hawthorn at home. Winning all their five is highly dubious. Remember Adelaide toweled up the 2015 Eages around this time last year. My best prediction is Hawks 18 wins Crows 17 Cats 17 GWS 16 Swans 16 Dogs 16 Eagles 15 North Thu N (AO) Adelaide v Geelong Fri N (MCG) Hawthorn v GWS Sat N (SCG) Sydney v North Sun A (MCG) WB v WCE
Jack
Guest
Agree , I reckon the Swans wont make the Top 4 now... Hawks Crows GWS West Coast Cats Swans Dogs Roos
Sammy
Guest
Agreed. I see Adelaide finishing top 4 based on their run home- only play freo away from Adelaide Oval and should they get their game going over the next 2 weeks, percentage boosters await against essendon at home then brisbane at home. The West Coast game in the last round may be the one they need to win to ensure top 4..which may also resign West Coast to bottom half of the top 8.
Perry Bridge
Guest
Best win for the week? Geelong at home over Adelaide? North at home but away against Collingwood? GWS away against Port? The almosts were Melb and Carl, both unlucky. For North - as simple as can be - win this week and they make the finals for sure (as the % buffer to StKilda is insurance enough even were North to then lose their last 4). Just curious now about who gets the cleanest run in for the last month of H&A matches - which team hits September running on top of the ground and what impact the week off will have. North still to have the greatest say on the ordering of the top 4 and final 8. If the Roos get on a bit of a roll and win a few then between Hawks (less so), Syd, Doggies and GWS the impact of a loss can be huge.
Perry Bridge
Guest
Given also during the season their performance against Hawthorn in Launceston (very unlucky) and their comeback against North a few weeks later - they are a side on the rise and far from an easy beat. North this week and Swans in a couple of weeks will have to be near to their best to get the points.
LachyP
Guest
St Kilda have won 7 of their last 9 with two off colour performances interstate and 2 wins over top 8 sides.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Power rangers of the week; GWS Geel Saints North Brizzie
Dan
Guest
I just feel like in the last few games that i have seen him play he seems to go missing in general play. For all the talent he obviously has I'd like to see him influence the general play a little more.
Pete
Guest
Hawthorn should be number 1 now. Adelaides away record is not so good. Not sure they should have been number 1 anyway but certainly not after being taken apart by the Cats.