I wrote a couple of years ago in the spring of 2014 that John O’Shea was struggling as head trainer for Godolphin.
I had my suspicions for a little while after that due to a run of good results, but after this season, I will stand firm in my statement. John O’Shea is struggling.
Many arguments were made that I’d gone early in my assessment back in 2014; changing training methods for horses can often result in needing a preparation or two to show true results, and O’Shea needed time to settle in as well.
Those arguments no longer hold water.
He does sit second in the Sydney premiership behind Chris Waller, but given the quality of animal at his disposal and the power he has behind him, you would like to think he’d be further clear of Team Snowden.
Godolphin are all about success, and in spades. Since he took over from Peter Snowden, the stable hasn’t gone forwards, instead falling back.
I might have been a bit premature in saying that then due to the fact he only had the stable for a couple of months. But the clock is ticking. O’Shea has had the reigns for nearing two years now and Godolphin aren’t the feared giant they were. While prizemoney has ticked over, success at Group level hasn’t been as forthcoming and that was very evident in the autumn.
Exosphere was the talked up horse. I myself thought he looked to have come back in brilliant order and thought this could be the horse to put O’Shea on the world map. But the horse failed badly in two runs. In hindsight, the colt got too much praise for a racing resume that didn’t warrant his many plaudits.
O’Shea has only won a handful of Group l races, all of those away from the racing capital of Australia, Melbourne.
The Melbourne monkey on his back has grown to King Kong size. Winning a major spring Group 1 in Victoria must be a priority in the new season.
The problem is O’Shea doesn’t appear to have the arsenal to do so, and can’t seem to gain significant improvement from his best runners. When Snowden was training, you’d almost need a second hand to count the number of horses that could fill that position.
O’Shea can’t be doubted as a quality trainer in his own right; his record speaks for itself. But he and Godolphin aren’t the powerhouse team they perhaps should be. The gap between he and Waller won’t be turned around overnight but he can’t afford Team Snowden to close in on the royal blue silks. He knows he’ll need to take a Group 1 out in Victoria to feel comfortable as the face of the rich Godolphin stable.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
O'Shea is definitely not beyond criticism, but the Godolphin operation is unique. It is very buerocratic, and often the trainer doesn't make the decision about which horse to aim for which race. He is a casualty of Wallers dominance, but did far better in G1 races this season the other high profile trainers like Ms Waterhouse
kv joef
Roar Guru
"... I’m not doubting him ... " --- then i'm confused? What are your comments about? a belief that a trainer can wave a magic wand and turn a pig's ear into a silk-purse. Hawkes didn't train for the Godolphin but that aside i repeat, you can't magically manufacture G1 horses. "... Given the stable of bluebloods and imports he has ..." I'd be surprised if the stable isn't extremely happy with JOS's results with their Euro-imports. Allowing for the mark they arrived with ... to win several $mill with them was outstanding. Below are Godolphins world-wide stats for G1 races. 2015 ... https://www.godolphin.com/runners-and-results/?pageIndex=0&formtype=winners&horseId=0&trainerId=0&venueId=0&groupId=G210&countryId=&month=0&year=2015&desc=true 2016 ... https://www.godolphin.com/runners-and-results/?pageIndex=0&formtype=winners&horseId=0&trainerId=0&venueId=0&groupId=G210&countryId=&month=0&year=2016&desc=true# Seems JOS was the their leading G1 trainer in 2015 and is only 1 behind Charlie Appleby this year. Godolphin's elite racing stock world-wide have had a couple of quite years. that's racing :) . "...wouldn’t consider Holler and Ascot a success..." My comment about Holler-to-ascot was more about Godolphin publicly signifying JOS's inclusion as an intregal part of their international racing family. Only guessing but i think Holler was to be the travelling companion of Exopshere to Ascot. Godolphin likes travelling their horses in pairs (or more) for long trips. A strategy now adopted by many international travelling stables. I personally think Holler wasn't suited to the Ascot 1200m and maybe the original plan was the King's Stand or to make sure of the pace in the GJubilee but i don't know. Bottomline, Holler's mark, at the Golden Jubilee level was borderline although he ran extremely well returning a high of 117ukOR which equates to around 112au, a PBR i think. "... Group l tally alongside the trainers ..." --- Do your own math ... http://www.horseracinginfo.com.au/group-races-results.php --- also forgot to mention other favs of mine - Mick Price, Robert Smerdon, Murray Baker, Ciaron Maher, Kris Lees and there are quite a few others, who given an emerging horse won't miss a beat raising that animal to their highest level.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
I'm not doubting him as a very good trainer. I'm only saying he is struggling in regards to producing top class gallopers, something Hawkes and Snowden had no trouble doing year in year out. And I wouldn't consider Holler and Ascot a success. Yes he won the Group l, but outside that, apart from a Group l placing, he didn't do a great deal, nothing at all to warrant a Royal Ascot trip and his run justified that. Given the stable of bluebloods and imports he has, you would hope to think Godolphin would like more majors rather than what they produced this season. If he is indeed level in the Group l tally alongside the trainers you've mentioned, then I would consider his year a failure in terms of Group l races.
kv joef
Roar Guru
you're just having a laugh aren't you adam? i criticised your first article as rubbish and your current 'logic' is not any better. This current season shows 4 trainers with more than a 1000 starters ... JOS headed the StrikeRate% (16%) with Weir, Waller, Hayes-Dabernig the others. Godolphin's earnings rank 3rd with $15m - paid a few bills there. Godolphin's Australian G1 year was average by some standards (?) and as mentioned, with only 3 G1s and plenty of placegetters might by some outlier standards masquade as a failure (?). For the Big Blue is was just an off-year. Ordinary luck on the track where ever you turn. but you know a stable is doing things right although luck is on a down swing when your 2nds outnumber your winners. Just for the record, JOS's first and second pacegetters account for 33% of ALL Golophin runners ... for recreational punters that is a stat your exotics can bank on. JOS's Godolphin results have been outstanding and Godolphin was quite happy to ship a horse like Holler, to Ascot under his name is recognition of his winning ways. Pete Snowden watched his stable decimated to the Blue's overseas operations Exosphere was a grave disappointment. so much unreleased talent. hard to argue with the stud decision made as if his talent was to be realised then he had to be de-knackered. But I do agree that boofhead might be one that got away from JOS ... but not for the reasons you might suppose ... reckon that won't happen to the next one. All stables suffer ebbs and flows regardless of size. Just as an aside --- how many individual G1 winners did Team Hawkes, Team Snowden, Hayes-Dabernig, the FBI, Waterhouse train this year? I suppose they will be next in the cross-hairs. Actually I'm not sure but i think JOS's 3 puts him equal 3rd on the G1 list with a couple of others. You can't manufacture G1 horses. But if you thought you had a G1 galloper you would want him with an elite trainer; someone just like JOS. PS "... racing capital of Australia, Melbourne ..." ... look like you are loading all bases with another novel piece of wisdom adam?