In a tight season where no team has a handle on premiership favouritism, small margins and factors will go a long way to determining who will emerge as the premiers.
As such, punters would be wise to bet on winning experience in 2016.
Firstly, a line should be put through all teams who fail to make the top four. Never, in the current finals system, has a team finished outside of the top four and won a preliminary final, let alone a premiership.
While only one win separates eighth and second, North Melbourne are unlikely to get the jump on the teams above them. In fact, there is still a slim chance of their complete capitulation with St Kilda snapping at their heels.
Secondly, finals experience has historically counted for a lot come the last day of the season.
Geelong stands alone as the only team to win a grand final under the current system without winning a final the season before, a feat they accomplished in 2007. Of the top four hopefuls this season, only three won in September last year: Adelaide, and 2015 grand finalists West Coast and Hawthorn.
The Geelong anomaly of 2007 could give hope to the likes of Greater Western Sydney or the Western Bulldogs who will come in as the upstarts looking to force a changing of the guard. However, the Cats were by far the best team that year, which was painfully obvious as they overcame the second-placed Port Adelaide by 20 goals on the final day of the season.
More likely to cause another ‘statistical upset’ are Geelong (again) and Sydney, as they have at least a combined team of players with premiership experience. However the ‘fresh blood’ that has rejuvenated their lists in the last year or two have a lot to learn.
As such, Hawthorn should almost be locks for a fourth consecutive premiership – unprecedented in the modern era. Even without figurehead Jarryd Roughead and recently retired Norm Smith Medallist Brian Lake, Hawthorn have 18 players from their 2015 premiership and a core that has been together for the better part of a decade.
They’ve won twelve finals in the last five years. The next best is Sydney with seven. Geelong have only won just four finals despite immediately springing to mind as a finals hardened outfit – only winning one since their premiership in 2011.
Brisbane couldn’t do it at the turn of the century despite their endless concessions but they faced a challenger far greater than any present to Hawthorn in 2016. They came up against the three-time minor premiers Port Adelaide who had finally overcome mental demons to put the Lions to the sword.
Sydney are the closest comparison to that Port Adelaide team, as they have a lot to prove. The coup of Lance Franklin in the 2013 off-season followed by finishing top in 2014 culminated in a humiliating thrashing at the hands of Franklin’s old team.
They’ll be keen to set that record straight and justify handing the key forward a nine-year contract.
Adelaide is an oddball of the top four hopefuls, exceeding expectations after losing their best player Patrick Dangerfield to free agency. They’re more finals hardened than the Bulldogs and the Giants after their near miss in 2012 and resurgence in 2015, but lack the grand final experience of Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong and West Coast (the latter of which look unlikely due to their flaky away form against fellow contenders).
Sitting two games ahead of the rest should prove enough breathing room for the Hawks to hold onto a top two spot even relatively dismal percentage. Should that happen, their ability to win should provide the edge to go all the way once again in 2016 – possibly without even leaving Melbourne.
Richard
Guest
Collingwood, St Kilda, Carlton... That is a telling stat against the CATS . .I still reckon they are no chance for the GF If those 3 teams can dish them up on the MCG, imagine what the HAWKS will do to them finals time..
Penster
Guest
The Hawks capitulations to Geelong, GWS & Swans were much earlier in the season, can't get a fix on where they're at with those clubs except the Swans, but was that an aberration or are the Swans in a form slump? I think the latter at the moment, but it's the Swans, well coached with a tough experienced list. Agree with you on Geelong, but GWS are steeled by a lot of very experienced heads who've had finals experience, including the mega presence of Stevie J who enjoys a field day against the Hawks. We talk about experience in finals, but they're not completely green, they're the team I'm most looking forward to seeing in the finals, I hope fans are treated to a Swans v GWS showdown. West Coast's defence doesn't work on the wider proportions of the MCG, the way they dot themselves around the 50m arc "the web" is so easy to pick holes in. Thought they'd have worked that out by now. Can the Doggies find form in adversity? That's straight from the Clarko songbook that Luke Beveridge knows well. Hope so. North I don't rate, Boomer's "me me me" book (nice timing Boomer) and 427 celebrations are taking up a lot of space, and they've haven't recovered from Brad Scott making a goose of himself and the club (and marking his card I reckon) in the presser about umpires consipiring against them. Also rans. Crows, haven't noticed them creep into form and up the ladder. Are they ready yet? Would be a fairytale for that club.
justinr
Guest
Note that I said three finals. Patchy football just can't win premierships these days.
Brian
Guest
Crows biggest "comfortable" win against a fellow top side was GWS which they won by 22. Their record against top 8 teams outside the Adelaide Oval is 1-4. They have a lot of similarities with West Coast 2015 (also 1-4 outside Perth against top 8 teams before the Grand Final) and if they can sneak a top 2 finish could even make the GF. As for Geelong they rely on squeezing the opposition into long kicks which works great on narrow grounds like Kardinia Park and the Adelaide Oval. However on the MCG they will struggle for foot speed and disposal efficiency. Collingwood, St Kilda, Carlton and even Fremantle showed that if you get numbers to the ball they are vulnerable. The two teams most likely to bring Hawthorn down are Sydney & GWS. Sydney v Hawthorn is so close these days both trying to impose their style. GWS at their best would beat all others Hawthorn included. Logic dictates their best probably won't happen until next year.
Reservoir Animal
Guest
I'm not sure that the Hawthorn-Geelong game was in the slaughter category, it was close for much of the day. Having said that, I think Geelong are Hawthorn's biggest threat because unlike some top-8 sides (particularly Sydney, North Melbourne and West Coast) they won't get a mental fright when they see the brown and gold and they have the ability to blow oppositions away in a quarter (which is very important against a side that only has to stay in the game to win it). GWS have played some mighty good football this year, but youth of their type simply doesn't win premierships no matter how many times people think it will. Crows are definitely a September threat but I want to watch a bit more of them before deciding just how big a threat.
Penster
Guest
The Crows and GWS at this stage based on they've comfortably defeated other top sides, which the Hawks have not shown us convincingly this year (still recoiling at the slaughter handed out by GWS & Geelong), and the Swans when they get their form back on track. West Coast in Perth will be a litmus test.
anon
Guest
That's a good point. They under performed in 2006 and Thompson's head was on the chopping block.
mattyb
Guest
If Hawthorn find their finals gear they will win the flag for sure. If they keep scratching around like they are they will probably still win. Their fans will gloat and gloat and take over the position of Carlton as a despised team for opposition supporters now that Carlton have taken over from St. Kilda as the laughing stock of the league. Sydney don't seem to be playing very well but they sometimes play ok against Hawthorn and may be a chance. Adelaide could also be a slight chance. GWS are to young,the Dogs to young and to injured,Geelongs list is to thin and they are to flackey. Hawthorn also own Geelong,I couldn't care about statistics because Geelong have no problem beating Hawthorn in nothing games but as soon as something is on the line Hawthorn win every time and it's been happening my entire life. North aren't good enough and the Eaglas are ok but it's just not their year.
Jack
Guest
You only need one excellent quarter to finish off a team...HAWTHORN has done that in 3 recent Grand Finals..
Mango Jack
Guest
They've played the last 4 actually, which reinforces your point, I guess.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
The Bullies have run aground up Cripple Creek. WC have a difficult draw. The Saints are truly on an impossible mission 2 games behind and about 20% points. And that's not taking into account what may befall the would be top 4. North will make it comfortably.
JohnDee
Guest
Also forgetting that the Geelong team in 2007 made a prelim in 2005 & 2004. Obviously not exactly the same team, but the core was similar, and they had big game experience coming into 2007. 2006 was just a bad year.
Reservoir Animal
Guest
Who are you convinced by?
Penster
Guest
Calculating the ladder from a snapshot of the last 8 rounds (which includes a bye), the ladder looks like this. Only change in the 8 is Saints for North, who on this model drop to 14th spot. Hawks are on top and appear to be hitting their stride but who have they played? Melbourne, Essendon, North on the slide, Gold Coast, Port (good solid win), Swans (off the pace at the moment) and Richmond, who look like they hate the game, the club and each other. I remain unconvinced by the Hawks at this point, but there's enough finals specialists in the team to make a serious dent in September. Hawks W:8, L:0, 157.6% Crows W:7, L:1, 144.1% West Coast W:6, L:2, 136.3 Bulldogs W:6, L:2, 103.6% St Kilda W:6, L:2, 100.4% GWS W:5, L:3, 124.4% Swans W:5, L:3, 121.2% Geelong W:5, L:3 113.8%
Aransan
Guest
Although it would certainly be hard for a team out of the top 4 to win a premiership I believe it will happen at some stage. Under the previous McIntyre Final Eight System in 1997 the Crows finished 4th but had to win all 4 finals to take the premiership and that is all that is required under the present system for a side finishing 5-8.
andyl12
Guest
If other top sides keep playing four average (or worse) quarters of football like some of them did on the weekend, why wouldn't Hawthorn hold up against that?
paulywalnuts
Guest
I'm in two minds about Hawthorn. From the start of the year I haven't like their chances, they haven't been overly impressive but here they are two games clear. And their narrow winning margin and low percentage may be that of a team that's just playing to a level- surely it must be difficult to remain motivated for the week in- week out grind of home and away football after having played in the last 3 GFs. Getting the job done. Have they got another gear to go into come September? For the first time, I'm beginning to suspect yes. And let's face it, with the state of the comp this year they may not have to be as good as previous years to still win it.
Roger of Sydney
Guest
Hawthorn always seem to do enough which is what makes them so good. There are 5 teams that can knock them off but who will. IF GWS faces the Swans in the finals the winner may be the one that goes on to win the GF.
anon
Guest
"Geelong stands alone as the only team to win a grand final under the current system without winning a final the season before, a feat they accomplished in 2007. Of the top four hopefuls this season, only three won in September last year: Adelaide, and 2015 grand finalists West Coast and Hawthorn." The reason it's so rare for a team to win a premiership without winning a final the year before is that teams generally improve incrementally. They might go 8th, to 5th, to 2nd. GWS hasn't done that. They have improved exponentially and jumped straight into the top 4. If you finish 3rd to 5th you're almost assured of winning at least one final.
justinr
Guest
Hawthorn are a chance, but their habit this season has been to produce one excellent quarter of football and three fairly average ones. This is highly unlikely to hold up for three finals.