The Sydney Swans' evolution is complete, now comes a flag

A Sydney Swans premiership in 2016 would vindicate their decision to embrace their destiny as a marquee AFL club. Everything is coming together, and the Bloods will be a tricky proposition no matter who they face come September.

The AFL coaches are as close to unequivocal as you can get.

Nine of the 17 that responded to a question as to who would be the 2016 premier in this year’s AFL Coaches Association Survey said the Swans were the team to beat. The next highest scoring side was Hawthorn, on four.

Unless head coach John Longmire voted for his charges (not unlikely), that’s nine of 16 possible votes.

Sydney moved to second on the ladder on the weekend, with a first quarter obliteration of Port Adelaide helping them build to the league’s best percentage. With games against St Kilda, North Melbourne and Richmond to come, there’s a strong chance the Swans finish the year on a five-game winning streak, sitting in pole position.

That world came into view after Hawthorn’s loss to Melbourne on Saturday afternoon. It is no understatement to say that the Dees drove a stake into the heart of the Hawks’ top-two desires. Hawthorn are a clear 27 percentage points behind Geelong in fifth spot, who now sit just one win behind them. Next Friday night’s grand final rematch has become the pivot on which the Hawks’ double chance – and, probably, a realistic chance at their fourth straight flag – sits.

Simultaneously, the top four is now in a total state of flux. Where one of Adelaide, Geelong, Greater Western Sydney or Sydney looked like missing out, there’s now a clear path to them all making it.

Thought this home-and-away season was petering out to nothing? You can thank Paul Roos and his surging Demons later.

One of the beneficiaries of the surprise result on Saturday is the Swans, who are now in the box seat for a top-two spot. Indeed, they may share top billing with their cross-town rivals when the Round 23 dust settles, in what would have been a 10,000-to-1 chance to salute in early March.

That would help Sydney, sure, but it may not be required. Sydney are firmly in the frame to win this year’s premiership, and to cement their status as the AFL’s marquee club.

The evolution is complete
We’ve talked about Sydney quite a bit in recent times. It started when the vultures were circling Kurt Tippett, became a discussion about their evolution from stodgy to silky, and more recently was about how that evolution may stall in the face of a lack of pace on the list.

We talked about them in the context of the league’s new Big Three, too.

Sydney’s year has been as stellar as we’re used to seeing, although in many ways 2016 might be the most surprising season they’ve pulled together under Longmire to date.

The recruitment of Lance Franklin and Tippett, and retention of a stellar group of A-grade midfielders, left the Swans with a talent gap through the middle part of their list. They were to be the stars and scrubs (young players are scrubs for the purposes of this narrative) of 2016; a side grappling with the tricky inflection point they thrust upon themselves with their high-price acquisitions.

We just weren’t aware that many of the scrubs were already set to play like stars.

Through Round 20, five of Sydney’s players under 24 years of age have played at least 16 games this season: Tom Mitchell, Jake Lloyd, Callum Mills, George Hewett, and Isaac Heeney. All have played significant roles, in keeping with players in their prime years.

Heeney and Mills deserve particular praise, having come into the Sydney side at the first available opportunity, and holding their place thereafter. Heeney will likely end up as the best player of his Rising Star class, while it would be brave to write off Mills’ chances of taking the award this season.

They’ve been joined by Harry Cunningham (15), Zak Jones (14) and Tom Papley (12), who have also carved their own niches in this team. All told, 17 of Sydney’s 34 players used this year have been under 24, which is remarkable for a side that was the oldest in the competition in their 2012 flag year.

Speaking of 2012, Sydney’s evolution since then has been incredible, and extremely quick. Just 14 players that were on the list in their flag year remain in 2016. Carlton still have 12 players on their list from their 2012 season, while Hawthorn have 21. Fellow double-chance holders the Giants and Crows still have 19 and 21 of their 2012 players.

It is arguably the sneakiest rebuild in AFL history, and what’s more, the Swans have finished in the top four each and every year.

The more things change and all that.

Augmented identity
The Swans used to be a defence-first team, and in many ways, their current side still leans heavily on stopping the opposition. But rather than their story ending with congestion and ball ups – many, many ball ups – their midfield lets the Swans be much more potent.

Still, as the season has progressed Sydney’s defence has emerged as their cornerstone, as the unit defies expectations that it would be too slow to keep up with the pacey sets of the best sides. They’re conceding a league-leading 66.6 (let him who have understanding…) points per game, which happens to be just three points more than Essendon have scored per game. Regardless of the lens you want to view those two numbers through, they’re immense in their diminutiveness.

We shouldn’t be surprised; system trumps personnel, particularly behind the ball where only demi-gods like Alex Rance can reliably kill plays. We get fooled every year into thinking the loss of an individual is going to cruel a football team, or the injection of an individual will create a path to glory. Sydney have been one of the best defences for time immemorial, and it’s difficult to see that changing.

We’ve talked about the Swans’ system in the past. They are incredibly effective at creating dead space inside their opponents’ forward 50, by forcing teams to kick long and high or short and wide. They don’t go to a spare defender as their main strategy, but it often doesn’t matter such is the nous of their group.

Unfashionably, Sydney employ a number of players in their back half who are defenders first. Dane Rampe is the only defensive half player to rank inside the top ten for metres gained for the side, in contrast to many other teams who have three or four players in the back half.

It extends beyond the ilk of Heath Grundy, Nick Smith, Rampe and the emergent Aliir Aliir (who has kept Ted Richards out of their side since the midway point of the season). Their group of half backs are young, and have been trusted with the responsibility of running this line despite it emerging as the key battleground in 2016. Mills looks like a natural, Jones is growing, and Lloyd has continued to build on the impressive start to his career.

Sydney’s midfield work rate is second to none, too. The back half of the ground is often a numbers game, and Sydney’s midfielders run hard to ensure their back six have support. It speaks to a team that understands the importance of team when it comes to stopping the opposition from scoring.

How effective are they? Well, 66.6 points per game against is incredibly low, but some numbers that lie beneath the surface are even more indicative.

The 2016 Swans are content to turn the pace of their games up to 11. They are second in the league for inside 50 entries, at 57.1, but unlike recent years, they also concede 50-plus entries per game (51.6 in the year to date). Most other sides around the top of the ladder are much more miserly when it comes to territory: Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs all let their opponents in less than 50 times a game.

It’s Sydney’s elite performance inside defensive 50 that is holding their opponents to such low scores. The Swans concede a score on just 38 per cent of opposition entries, clearly the lowest mark in the league, and a full 20 per cent below the average.

Beyond the arc, the Swans are just as crushingly effective; their opponents have scored just 72 points per 50 minutes of possession, almost three goals less than the AFL average (89 per 50 minutes) and a kind of comical 46 points less than the hapless Brisbane Lions.

In short, beating them relies on beating their defence first. And they have been beaten this way in 2016: the Swans have lost every time they’ve conceded 100 points or more, which is not uncommon (there have only been four games in which a top eight side has conceded 100 points and won, from 20 instances). But it does illustrate how important stopping power is to their prospects in September.

Untapped potential
Stopping is important, but having the capability to score with ease is arguably the more pertinent factor in winning individual games – that’s what becomes critical in knock-out finals. Fortunately for the Swans, they have this base covered.

Sydney are the league’s seventh-best scoring side in 2016 on my Offensive Efficiency Rating scheme, but once the top two are taken out (Adelaide and GWS, who have ratings of Holy Crap and God Damn, respectively), the gap between third and the Swans is half a goal. At +7.4, they have an above-average scoring aptitude, which is amplified by their miserly defence.

That’s despite their offensive abilities being hindered, in a record-keeping sense at least, by their unfortunate timing. The Swans have played five games that have been affected by rain this year – three of them significantly so – which are likely to understate their true potential. Indeed, if those five games are excluded from Sydney’s report card, they shoot up to third in the league, with an OER that gets them ever so close to the magic 100 points per game mark (99.8).

It makes sense: they have the most potent single offensive force in the game patrolling their forward half, and have a midfield which is known for its ability to share the load. A cursory look at their goal kicking spread paints this picture perfectly. Franklin sits on 61, while seven players that have played in at least 11 games have booted 0.9 goals a game or more (five of them having kicked more than one).

Franklin is the focal point, and rightly so. He is an instant candidate for a double team, and I’ve shown on a few occasions how his mere presence can bend the opposition’s defensive preferences. Buddy’s ability to hit the square from 60 metres out is the definition of a comparative advantage for the Swans, and one that becomes lethal on their home deck.

His running mate, Tippett, remains on Sydney’s long-term injury list, slated to return in Round 23. Despite playing as the team’s primary ruckman this season, Tippett was on track for a 30-goal season, and will likely end the year with close to ten contested possession wins per game. He would have been an intriguing choice as a forward pocket in the All Australian team.

Youngster Heeney is also an important cog, and forms a uniquely challenging three-headed hydra in Sydney’s forward 50. Heeney, the smaller of the three, might be the best mark, Franklin plays like a small forward, and Tippett is freaking huge. Deal with them, and the likes of Tom Papley, Ben McGlyn and Gary Rohan get off the chain. If all three heads are fit and firing, which seems likely, the Swans will be a constant 100-point threat.

Flag favourites
The glory of this season is that there hasn’t been a genuine flag favourite all year. Sure, the Hawks started the season at the shortest price, but that is out pre-season respect and a fear that until their brains are splattered all over the ‘G, they’re not really dead.

This week, the current top four have moved to equal favouritism. Of this group, I’d argue the Swans and Giants are the best placed, given their respective home-ground advantages and potential to win the day across the ground. The less said about GWS now the better, because I feel they’re going to be the AFL’s biggest finals story – I said my piece in May, and there’ll be more to say in the weeks ahead.

Big brother might be the pick of the litter this year, though. The Swans have embraced their status as a marquee club in recent years, foisting upon themselves a substantial overhaul of their playing group which has arguably put them in a better position than they were in 2012.

Every year, there’s a club where everything seems to fall into place in the run to September. Last year it was West Coast, and this year, it looks like it’s the Sydney Swans.

A third flag in just over a decade, after a period in the football abyss, would cement their newfound status as a league heavyweight; the marquee club of the competition.