Let’s be honest, it wasn’t the finest evening for Australia in the pool on Day 3.
Our two big medal hopes in the men’s and women’s 100m backstroke walked away empty-handed, despite pre-Games hype having them pencilled in to get on the podium at the minimum. Mitch Larkin fought to the very end but was edged off the podium, while Emily Seebohm was never in the hunt and faded to finish seventh.
She will have her critics (with some justification) sharpening their pencils and accusing her of not being able to deliver on the big stage.
Credit to her though, where in London she bawled her eyes out, yesterday she simply put up the hand and said she tried her best but was just not fast enough to win.
The middling results in semi-finals yesterday coupled with predicted non-podium chances indicate that tonight will not be a gold night for Australia either.
A lot of you yesterday were pretty quick to throw arms up in the air and say the team have fallen off the wagon, and there is an inability to perform, there must be some internal trouble etc.
However, Australia are actually still on track to win seven golds in the pool (I predicted six). There is a lot to be encouraged by. I myself wrote an article in July talking about Australia’s best medal chances and we are still on track.
For those who were disappointed by the men’s 4x100m freestyle, look no further than my comments in that article. We were never in the hunt, so don’t include that in any argument for Australia under performing. We did exceptionally well to get bronze.
We’ve won the 4x100m women’s freestyle and the 400m men’s freestyle.
The other five where Australia is expected to win are
The 100m men’s freestyle, The 100m women’s freestyle, The 200m men’s backstroke, the 50m women’s freestyle and the 200m women’s butterfly.
On form both before and during the games there is absolutely no reason why we can’t still be the favourites for these events. Cameron McEvoy is still in electric form (all but matching Nathan Adrian in the relay, and having to do it in dirty water). The women’s relay demonstrated exactly why one of the Campbell sisters are going to win (they swam the fastest legs of all competitors in the second, third or fourth legs) the 100m and 50m.
We all knew Mitch Larkin is a better 200m than he is 100m backstroker, while Madeline Groves is still the woman to beat in the 200m.
Seven golds would be an astonishingly good performance. Let’s not forget that we are still in the hunt in the 1500m and that Seebohm may turn things around in the 200m backstroke as well. What has been definitely disappointing is that Australia in non-gold chances are failing to at least get a minor medal. It’s either gold or bust. But hey, I’d rather see the anthem played seven times, instead of no gold and 14 minor medals!
Cheer up, the glory days are going to come once more!
Glenn Mitchell
Expert
Spruce, I never said you did belittle her. I was referring to your comment that others will be sharpening their pencils and accuse her of nor delivering on the big stage. My response was aimed at them Spruce and not you.
Greg
Guest
Could not be furter from the truth. Australia has performed ineptly at 4 successive olympic swim meets compared with their potential. This seems to be cultural, mental and also because Australia simply expects form from months and months before hand to carry forward (ie our trials are held way too far in advance). The US performs best, not only because they have extrordinary talent and depth (not to mentioned 10 times the population) but because their selection is based on recent form and recent racing only 6 weeks from the olympics. Australia must change our selection process and trial dates to mirror the US. Emulate the best if you want to be the best. Good luck for the remainder of the meet to Team Australia and I should say that no doubts their talent, committment and effort. It is planning and mental aptitude that cause the disappointing results.
matth
Guest
Well predicted, although it seems he didn't fix his start. 7th to first in the second fifty. Whew!
matth
Guest
Well you were both wrong with Chalmers coming through. There was no choking by him today or by Maddi Groves in the 200 Fly with a big PB for silver.
matth
Guest
Well history says a gold and two silvers today, so that's the end of your day 3 predictions. And the individual silver was a PB, and the relay was against the greatest female swimmer seen since Shane Gould, so no choking either. Oh well, I'm sure you'll find something else to be negative about.
spruce moose
Guest
Glenn, I refute any accusation that I have belittled her. Her world championship medals are excellent, but as she has said many times since that day, individual success at the Olympics is what she craves most. She has underperformed to her, national and global expectations twice now in Olympic finals. She was the gold medal favourite in London, she was the gold medal favourite here. That is not meant to be read in an accusatory or belittling tone, that is a simply a statement of fact. 7th in an Olympic final where you are the fastest in the world and reigning world champion + swimming a second outside your PB is under performance. Sure, no one expects you to set a new PB every race, but to be a full second outside is underperformance.
Glenn Mitchell
Expert
I think it is very harsh to say that Seebohm showed she was unable "to deliver on the big stage". Winning two individual World Championship gold medals, two World Championship relay gold, and two Olympic relay gold would indicate that she is very much a big event performer. She should not be belittled for failing to medal at Rio. At times, we are too ready to jump on athletes who do not perform as we expect they should every time they compete.
spruce moose
Guest
Middle of the night drug tests do wonders for a good night's sleep!
JoM
Guest
I think Chalmers has a good chance of beating both of them. Out of the swims I have seen so far, including the relay, he has looked fantastic. If he could just get off to a quicker start and a touch quicker down the first 50 then they won't get near him towards the end of his second lap with him coming through the way he does. McEvoy seems a little bit flat to me, even in interviews he has done, don't know if he is tired.
JoM
Guest
He lost by 1/100th. You really can't get much closer than that.
spruce moose
Guest
All the more interesting then that you are painting another swimmer as a guarantee!? Your move Mr Kasparov.
Republican
Guest
Is there any merit in making Swimming integral to the public school sporting Curriculum?
Republican
Guest
.....point taken Brendon. It does point to either choking or peaking too early, which seems all too common in respect of our Swimmers.
Brendon
Guest
Wasn't Magnussen supposed to be a guarantee in London?
Brendon
Guest
[quote]The mens relay won by the US as expected today – look who finished ahead of us, GB and Japan. The status and pedigree of swimming is on the slide in this nation I assure you, chocking or otherwise.[/quote] You're talking about the 4x200m freestyle. I'm talking about the 4x100m freestyle. We were never going to be anymore competitive in the 4x200m free than we were. Look at the PB's of the 4 swimmers in the 100m free and compare that to the Americans and French. Ours is much much quicker. As I said if all our 4 swimmers swam to their best ability we would win but we know that the 2 James's from London would underperform ... again. Sure, swimming is on the slide in Australia. All sports except Aussie rules and rugby leage are. But that still doesn't explain why Australian swimmers fail to do PB's in finals. As I pointed out if Larkin equalled his PB in the 100m backstroke he would have got silver and Seebohm would have easily got gold.
Republican
Guest
The US are peaking I reckon while I really feel that the Australian team is lacking confidence, as the meet progresses.
spruce moose
Guest
Adrian swam 46.97 and McEvoy 47.00 in the 4x100m. Adrian had the clearer run, while McEvoy didn't. Under no circumstances could I accept Adrian to be a guarantee.
Republican
Guest
The mens relay won by the US as expected today - look who finished ahead of us, GB and Japan. The status and pedigree of swimming is on the slide in this nation I assure you, chocking or otherwise.
Brendon
Guest
Maybe. But humans are conditioned by their past and I've seen too many Australian swimmers underperform to have much confidence.
Brendon
Guest
Republican, the build up is partly due to performances at world championships and times at the trials. I'll give you an example. Mitch Larkin swam 52.40 in the 100m backstrone at Kezan 2015 World Champs to win. He did 52.43 in the final in Rio. If he had swum 52.40 he would have tied for 3rd. Murphy won the mens 100m backstroke with a time of 51.97 which is amazing and I don't think Larkin is capable of that. Emily Seebohm's story is even worse. She did 58.26 in the 100m backstroke in Kezan which would have easily beaten Hosszu's time of 58.45. Seebohm's Olympic record in the 100m backstroke of 58.23 was not broken in Rio. As for the mens 4x100 James Roberts came last in the leadoff leg with a time of 48.88. Thats half a second slower than his trials time. Roberts has also swim under 48 seconds for the 100m free. Then there was Magnussen's leg where he swam a terrible 48.11. All 3 swimmers in legs 2-4 in the US team swam under 48 seconds. Magnussen is capable of a lot better than 48.11 swimming 3rd leg. Sure, he wasn't back to his best at the trials but that was 4 months ago. He should have been close to his best. Theres another reason the hype and build-up makes for unrealistic expectations. A lot of the American swimmers do not prepare or focus on the World Champs like they do the Olympics. A good example is Nathan Adrian. In the 2013 and 2015 World Champs Nathan Adrian could only manage 1 bronze. Last year in Kezan he was tied last in the 100m free final yet hes looking good to beat McEvoy and defend his 100m free title from London. David Plummer didn't even qualify for the 100m backstroke final in Kezan. Another is that the US swimmers hold their trials closer to the Olympics and we don't truly know the form of the US swimmers until the finals of the Olympics. Who knew some guy called Ryan Murphy would come along and swim sub 52 in the final in Rio? Swimming Australia does need to do a better job at managing expectations. They need PR to downplay things and not let commentators make bold statements. But put medals aside. The real problem is of swimmers not even coming close to their PB's in Olympic finals. Larkin's PB for the 100m free is 52.11. Just equalling that would have given him silver. Seebohm's PB in 100m backstroke would have easily given her gold. Roberts PB in the 100m free would have easily given Australia the lead. I don't know what Magnussen's best splits are for non-leadoff in a 4x100m relay but I'm sure along with Roberts doing a PB it would have given Australia gold.