Last week saw the first chink in my tipping armour in some time. Several upsets made for a difficult round, but more importantly, results from Round 22 have set up a juicy finals race.
Round 23 offers plenty of crucial contests in the quest for the top eight.
Last week’s tips – 4-8, running tip total – 108-160
Dogs vs Manly
These two teams meet with contrasting results in their last matches. The Dogs held off a tenacious Knights outfit, while Manly went down to the Eels in controversial circumstances.
There is motivation aplenty for the Dogs, a win here will go a long way to securing a top-four finish come season’s end.
For Manly, a win means that perhaps their season isn’t over just yet – a loss and the 2017 plan begins early.
The Sea Eagles will be boosted by the return of Jamie Lyon at five-eighth, but the Dogs won’t let this one slip.
Tip: Dogs 13+
Broncos vs Eels
Brisbane have been abysmal for nearly three months, with just three wins in their past 10. Give that Souths and the Dragons accounted for two of these victories, that lets you know exactly how they are travelling.
Parra have had their own well-documented struggles, which have recently begun affecting on-field performance. Regardless, they were last-up winners against Manly.
But missing their forward leader in the form of Beau Scott and having to travel to Suncorp Stadium will make this match just that little bit harder.
Tip: Broncos 1-12
Wests Tigers vs Titans
This one is runner up for match of the round, and is one of the most crucial contests remaining in the season, as the winner will receive a massive boost to their finals ambitions.
The Tigers hold a 2-1 record at Campbeltown Stadium this season, and while the Gold Coast beat the Tigers in Round 3, the last match between the teams at this venue favoured the joint venture.
The key clash will be James Tedesco against Jarryd Hayne. Although Hayne is a brilliant player, it felt like his inclusion last week was disruptive for the Titans as a whole – it could be some time before he clicks.
Tip: Tigers 1-12
Warriors vs Souths
The Warriors will be cheering they get to play Souths at this point in the season. Just holding onto a finals position, they will take on a Rabbitohs side attempting to avoid their tenth consecutive loss.
Mt Smart Stadium has reaped plenty of dividends for the Warriors this season – expect more of the same in this clash.
Tip: Warriors 13+
Dragons vs Sharks
The Dragons have less firepower than any other team in the competition. Based purely on match-day performances, the Red V are the worst team in the competition.
Little brother Cronulla is the polar opposite. Their exciting brand of football has them placed in a two-way battle for the minor premiership.
This could be a slaughter if the Dragons don’t aim up.
Tip: Sharks 13+
Knights vs Panthers
The Knights have been steadily improving throughout 2016, despite their club record 14th consecutive loss last week against the Bulldogs.
While they won’t win this match, they have the opportunity to win the hearts of their fans at Hunter Stadium. They could give the Panthers a fright in this one.
Nathan Cleary is the talisman for the Panthers. If his forwards offer him a decent amount of space, he will cause havoc.
Tip: Panthers 13+
Roosters vs Cowboys
I won’t be surprised if the Roosters come away with an upset victory, they have been incredibly competitive over their last two months – particularly at home.
That said, the Cowboys are reeling after their upset loss to the Tigers, and looking to make amends. Johnathan Thurston, in particular, had a rough afternoon but you can expect him to bounce back in a big way.
Tip: Cowboys 1-12
Raiders vs Storm
The match of the round will occur on Monday night.
The Raiders have established themselves as the most potent attacking team in 2016. Both left centre Jarrod Crocker and right winger Jordan Rapana have racked up 15 tries this season, meaning they are a threat across the park.
Combatting this is the Storm’s miserly defence, which has conceded the least points in 2016.
Form-wise, both teams have won six on the trot, but the Raiders have made a bigger statement in the recent run of victories.
I may regret this, but at a cold GIO Stadium in Canberra on a Monday night, I smell an upset.
Tip: Raiders 1-12
James Preston
Roar Guru
Haha figured you'd jump on Ken. Credit where it's due that was a much better performance. Still can't see them making the finals - I will be tipping the Roosters this week to be honest.
Ken
Guest
That was a half-decent match-day from the Dragons.... sorry couldn't resist. I won't use the retrospective argument but look at what you've used for evidence. They only beat Newcastle, Souths & the Roosters - but that only works as a denigration because you consider those teams worse than the Dragons. They also beat the Raiders, Titans & Panthers by the way at near enough to full-strength, none easy-beats. You praise Newcastle for running the Dogs close, but the Dragons came within a few points of the same team just a fortnight ago while without Dugan and a couple of forwards. They followed it up with a close loss to the Broncos despite still missing Dugan and the best of the forward pack (Thompson, Frizell & Ah Mau + the season-ended Creagh & Masoe). Also, the Broncos last week got most of their forward pack back, and are clearly moving back to contender status.
Joe
Roar Rookie
I like the Titans to beat the Tigers. I also think the Knights game will be close and a possible upset. I have been waay wrong backing the Knights before though. Storm v Raiders is match of the round, based on current form it should be the Raiders easily and playing at home in the cold. Storm have a habit of lifting for big games though so this will be a real test for them.
James Preston
Roar Guru
@jamesb - check out my reply to Ken for why I think that.
James Preston
Roar Guru
@Ken - That comment is referring to the football they play when on the field. They are truly awful. The Broncos are not a premiership contender, at least based on recent form. As mentioned in the article they are 3 from their last 10, Dragons and Souths accounting for two of those victories. Two of the Dragons eight season victories also came against incredibly affected origin sides - Cowboys missing 6 players, Storm missing Cronk, Smith and for that match also Munster and Green. No way would they have won otherwise. That's four points gifted. So of the remaining six winning matches 1 was against Souths, the other against wooden spooners Newcastle and a third was against the Roosters when they were without Pearce, Cordner, JWH and more. So whilst Newcastle are obviously dreadful and are the worst by a mile, I'd like you to take a look at the roster they possess and tell me of ANY coach that would not have that squad finish last. At the end of the day the Knights have shown improvement throughout the season and have thrown a serious challenge to both the Dogs and Storm in recent weeks. In terms of how the are playing their football, the Knights are superior to the Dragons at present and I won't be surprised if the Dragons loose to Newcastle in round 26.
jamesb
Guest
" Based purely on match-day performances, the Red V are the worst team in the competition." They are not the worst. The most boring, yes.
Birdy
Guest
Raiders V Storm on a monday night. That says it all. Sunday 3pm = packed house and every tv in the rl world tuned in. Other than that agree with your predictions. Go the Tigers.
up in the north
Roar Rookie
The Dogs have serious issues based on last nights showing. A Falcon try ffs!!!
Ken
Guest
'Based purely on match-day performances, the Red V are the worst team in the competition.' Slight hyperbole perhaps? On match-days they've won 8 and lost 12. Hardly good reading, but the last two games were lost to premiership contenders by just a few points so they are at least competitive. Meanwhile, on match-days, the Rabbits and Roosters have won half as many games while Newcastle has only had 1 successful match-day in 20 attempts.