Round 23 was full of upsets, with four outsiders (in terms of the betting market) getting up. It seems the pressure to perform or perish in the lead-up to the finals is affecting plenty of teams.
Last week’s tips – 4/8, running total – 112/168
Broncos vs Bulldogs
This one shapes as a tantalising contest between two top-eight certainties.
The Broncos have finally found some form, on the back of a brilliant attacking display from Anthony Milford against the Eels. Suncorp Stadium brings out the best in the Brisbane team, and they will enjoy home advantage again.
The Dogs got out of jail against Manly in Round 23, but nonetheless, recorded their third consecutive victory. The return of Greg Eastwood will boost them but The Cauldron has claimed plenty of scalps in 2016.
Tip: Broncos 1-12
Panthers vs Tigers
One of the most crucial clashes remaining in 2016, this will have a huge bearing on who plays finals football.
A win to the Panthers will all but guarantee them a finals berth, and they have named the same side that hammered Newcastle.
The Tigers are missing their key player, James Tedesco. While Mitchell Moses has been in outstanding form, the final ten minutes of the joint venture’s clash with the Titans was screaming out for some added attacking brilliance – brilliance that was unfortunately sidelined with a broken jaw.
The Panthers should end the Tigers season in this fixture.
Tip: Panthers 1-12
Knights vs Titans
After showing continual improvement for several weeks, the Knights capitulated against the Panthers, suffering a 42-6 defeat.
On the positive side, they have named their strongest line up of 2016.
The Titans will be buoyed from their golden-point victory over the Tigers. Jarryd Hayne’s transition is far from complete, with the makeshift five-eighth making a number of errors, mixed in with several freakish plays. That said, once this team truly clicks with Hayne in the 17, they will challenge anyone.
Tip: Titans 13+
Manly vs Storm
A heartbreaking loss in equally distressing circumstances officially ended Manly’s 2016 finals bid last week.
With nothing to play for they might well take a note from the Dragons’ last-up win against the Sharks and simply throw the ball around and hope for the best.
Melbourne continue to cling to the minor premiership by a solitary point and are smarting from their loss to the Raiders – ending a six match-winning streak. Dual motivation will ensure they pluck the Sea Eagles’ feathers in this one.
Tip: Storm 13+
Cowboys vs Warriors
The Cowboys are officially struggling, recording three consecutive defeats. A return to 1300 Smiles Stadium should give them something to smile about – they are a completely different prospect on home turf, and take on a side that has similar problems with travelling.
The Warriors lived up to their tag of the competition’s most frustrating team last weekend. With a finals spot on the line, taking on a Souths team languishing near the bottom of the ladder on the back of ten losses, every Tom, Dick and Hary expected a win for New Zealand.
But given the Warriors’ track record of losing ‘guaranteed’ matches, it almost seems silly we didn’t see the loss coming.
The Cowboys to jump-start their season and end the Warriors’ in one motion.
Tip: Cowboys 13+
Raiders vs Eels
Though they aren’t quite premiership favourites yet, the Raiders’ price is shortening by the minute.
This is the best team in the NRL. Every player pulls their weight and plays for the bloke beside him. Canberra are a pleasure to watch and I hope to see them take the field on grand final day, of which their win against the Storm suggests they are more than capable.
The poor old Eels have given it their all in 2016 and it is a real credit to coach Brad Arthur. For a long time now they have had nothing to play form, but they continue to turn up.
Unfortunately, over the last few weeks player absentees and the mountain of off-field drama has finally caught up.
Tip: Raiders 13+
Roosters vs Dragons
In last week’s column, I remarked that it would not surprise me to see the Roosters prevail over the Cowboys. Sure enough, the Chooks did the job – and in emphatic fashion.
This is a good footy team with a host of promising youngsters. The decision to purchase Luke Keary is one I won’t understand if it jeopardises the development of Connor Watson.
Meanwhile, the Dragons played their best game of 2016 to bring down the Sharks. While they are a mathematical chance of making the top eight, it is unlikely – results must fall their way in other matches, and they also need to win their remaining three fixtures.
They will fall at the first hurdle against the Roosters.
Tip: Roosters 1-12
Souths vs Sharks
Souths were another of the surprise victors in Round 23, getting the cash against the Warriors.
Breaking a ten-match losing streak will help improve morale, but unfortunately not much else for the Redfern club.
The Sharks will be out to make a statement, as two losses and a draw in their past three fixtures doesn’t make for good reading heading into the finals. The minor premiership is still within their grasp, but it is imperative they win here.
The Sharks have simply too much to play for in this fixture.
Tip: Sharks 13+
James Preston
Roar Guru
@Joe - Souths unfortunately went better than coming close mate! Ruined my round of tipping. I need a candlelight vigil.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Manly and Eels to come close or cause an upset. Roosters 13+ and Rabbits to go close.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Agree with you about the Storm and Raiders games. Tough game on Monday with short turnaround could mean one of these two teams slip up. Manly playing at home need to give their fans something for the season and what better way against their old enemy who is sitting at the top of the table. They did this last year when they were running last and beat the first placed Storm. Eels have a couple back especially Beau Scott whose defense was missed last week and Radradra means strike out wide. Raiders if they don't turn up with the same intensity might find themselves on the losing side.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Should be a cracker,hope your smiling at full time DOW.....I'm with you TB,hope the Broncs are in the bin! :)
The Barry
Roar Guru
enjoy mate ! Hope the dogs are having a party at fulltime !
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
Can't wait. First game for me a Lang Park. Got sideline tickets. Total cost : $92 with all the fees. Rip off, but may not get many more chances to go, so taking the opportunity. Hopefully the Dogs win in style.
Richard Maybury
Guest
This could well be another round of upsets as the pressure of playing in September produces unexpected results. I think that the Eels might beat the Raiders, the Manly v Storm will be a classic tussle and be won either way by just 2 points. I think the sharks bubble has well and truly burst while Souths will start playing out of their skins.
planko
Guest
You have to be on the dogs this week. They need to lift. Last tackle options will be the key. They need to start getting these right. Once the dogs get these right they will win most games.
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
Yep, and really it's a game the Dogs need to get up for. We need to be building form so when the semi's start we have that intensity to overwhelm teams.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Not as appetising a set of fixtures this week as last week but given recent results it will be just as intriguing a round of footy. How will the Sharks, Storm and Cowboys bounce back? Who will nab the spots in the 8? But I'm really looking forward to the Bulldogs v Broncos game. This is a massive test for the Dogs. We beat up a tired, out of form Broncos six weeks or so ago. Dogs keep winning and staying in the top 4 but not really convincing anyone. A win here will lock up a top 4 spot. The Broncs will be wanting to show they are back to being genuine premiership contenders. This should be a semi final intensity game.