The first Group 1 of the racing season is upon us once again. It seems like only yesterday Boban took the rails run to snatch the 2015 Memsie Stakes, and here we are again a year later.
The Memsie Stakes, held at Caulfield over 1400m under weight-for-age conditions, has been a Group 1 for three years, but the list of winners throughout the decades contains many of our greatest WFA performers. The race usually stacks up as a form reference through the spring carnival.
Half of this year’s 14 horse field are Group 1 winners, but only two of them recorded their victories in races less than 2000m, so while this edition may well be a pointer to the longer races, the winning chances here look thin.
Black Heart Bart is clearly the horse to beat, and holds a short quote accordingly.
The formguide tells us his last campaign, his first for Darren Weir, saw placings in the Newmarket, All Aged and Stradbroke, along with a Group 1 win in the Goodwood, plus the Victoria Handicap along the way.
Those runs were against genuine 1200m-1400m horses, of which there are few in this field. Black Heart Bart can take a position in the front half of the field from barrier five, and he should be too good.
The favourite’s main threats appear to come from his own stable, in the form of Palentino and Mahuta.
Palentino won the Australian Guineas in blazing style in the spring, but might have done a bit more first-up, albeit with 60kgs giving weight to some handy horses. He tackles WFA now, and will need to be good to beat Black Heart Bart.
Mahuta has been disappointing in his two runs back, and the fact he came back early in races like the Bletchingly and P.B Lawrence suggests that even the stable doesn’t think he will make the top level. The handicaps look likely to be his go, even if the talk is that he has been set for the race.
Darren Weir’s fourth runner is Melbourne Cup winner Prince of Penzance, who will be looking to clean out the cobwebs and hit the line pleasingly, much as he did in the Memsie last year.
The speed of the race comes in the shape of noted front-runners Lord of the Sky and Charmed Harmony.
Lord of the Sky is flying, and held on well after burning up The Cleaner in the P.B Lawrence. He may have put his shirking days behind him, and if Charmed Harmony doesn’t cut him up too much, he can steal the race.
Charmed Harmony has had the odd crack at Group 1 races, and while he is a consistent and hearty competitor, has proven to be a level below. He’ll give a decent account of himself though, and could sneak a place if they don’t go too hard up front.
Alpine Eagle is the interesting runner, with an Australian Guineas second on his resume, as well as being beaten less than a length behind Fawkner in the Makybe Diva Stakes last year. He’s had injury troubles since then, and has only run once. He has the ability to win a race of this calibre, but not the sharpness at this stage of his prep.
He or she looks a solid Group 2 horse trying to make a jump in grade, and will likely be coming home as fast as anything else, but giving too much of a start. He’ll win his right race this prep.
We do have a couple of Derby winners and an Oaks winner resuming too, and punters will be looking for that classic eye-catching performance from them all, to make their assessments about which of them may figure in the Cups.
Tarzino has a Rosehill Guineas and a Vic Derby to his credit, and had a real touch of class about him in his three year old season. The Mick Price stable is bullish about his prospects and expect him to run very well here.
The Kiwi’s walked away with both the Derby and the Oaks in the Sydney autumn, courtesy of Tavago and Sofia Rosa respectively. Where they fit in will be a talking point.
Tally caught fire in the autumn with a string of wins, including a couple at Group 2 level before running third in the ATC Derby. Whether he’s a genuine stayer remains to be seen, but he’s drastically over the odds here as the second most despised runner, and should be half his current quote at least.
Rising Romance will run well without winning if history is any guide. Stablemate Tashbeeh will obviously be outclassed here but returned well in the Aurie’s Star, suggesting he’ll be a major player on the country cups circuit.
The pace should be genuine with Lord of the Sky and Charmed Harmony up front, with Mahuta slotting in behind them, and Black Heart Bart and Rising Romance jostling for the run of the race. The stayers will sort themselves out back in the early stages before running home.
Selections: 1.Black Heart Bart 2.Lord of the Sky 3.Mahuta 4.Tally
Around the traps: In other races at Caulfield, Tom Melbourne looks an extremely enticing bet resuming in the Heatherlie, with few legitimate dangers. Don’t be surprised to see him kick their heads in. Highland Beat looks a bomb-proof each-way option in the McNeil.
The prospect of a heavy track at Rosehill may see a number of scratchings across the card, but some highly rated three year olds are down to clash in the Run to the Rose. El Divino has the spruik on him, with good reason based on performances and trials so far, and by Snitzel should relish any wet ground.
Rose’s Roughie: The Cockram Stakes is the last race on the Caulfield card, and it might pay to look around the four-year-olds, especially given Don’t Doubt Mamma and Thames Court have to give the field weight, and Ocean Embers will likely have to round them all up from last, which is a huge ask.
Choose showed she was up to this class in the autumn, and can drive forward from barrier three to get a lovely trail in second or third behind likely leader Shakespearean Lass, on a potentially moderate tempo. She’s enormous value at around the $14 mark.
michael steel
Guest
In response to my own ( each way ) selection in Charmed Harmony. Jockey thought it was 1000 metre race.
Bondy
Guest
If you dont back horses up on the speed at Caufield today you wont be making money, I'm laying most back markers today ...
Adam
Guest
Hi Camo and Gents The best time of year upon us again ! Agree with most BHB will be hard to beat like Mahuta for second and Tarazino and Sofia Rosa to fight out third and fourth In Sydney the Run to the Rose is a cracker ,wish it was a good 4 track. Anybody got any thoughts on the race ?
Razzar
Guest
Surprised you can't find a placing for Mahutta Ryan. He pulled up lame last start as fav, now 3rd up much fitter than most here. Weir has set him for this race. He will sit 3rd in running. I'd say Black heart Bart will be stretching sinuses he never thought he had to run down lord of the sky or Mahutta. He may prove me wrong, but for mine 6/4 is rock bottom odds for a horse that now returns to melb after a tour of oz, but the stronger contenders are here in this city, or Sydney. Your speed map is spot on, but for Black heart to win, he cannot afford to be, too off them as they straighten. It's only a 320 metre straight. He can win, but Weir has stated, the run will do him good. If 3s are offered, I"ll at least save on him & It's truly a great race to set up the Spring.
andrew
Guest
CAUL 1 – tactics and tempo dictate the outcome here, as is often the case with small field at caul over 1400m, with many unkowns given 3yo at various stages of prep. No firm view. Small bet on perfectly safe 2 – another race with tactics and tempo critical. But mapping it a bit more predictable. Prince of Brooklyn just lobs in the perfect controlling spot. Can make the 7 work just as hard as he want to soften it up final furlong, but not too hard to its detriment. Oliver should relish this task. Don’t mind backing the early season 4yo down in weights in these type of races, esp with race fitness and on home track at a distance it won over last time. Hi world and he’s our rokii, there is a spot for them outside lead on pace if they want to roll forward, but doubt they will do so first up for a spring prep, and even if they do, oliver still controls where they lob in the run. hi world more likely to push forward. Has competed in higher grade races much of his career and had a bad run with barriers and runs in transit recently. He goes in the early quad. 3 – my sister lil one of the better ew bets of the day for me and was happy to oblige with the $10 on offer thurs. after 2 races likely to be leader dominated, no doubt the ‘leader track’ cry will echo around, and this race will generate more tempo for sure. Lil just need a bit of luck trying to slot in midfield with some cover from the tricky draw, and this is my main negative against her. but as highest rated horse on limit weight, she is simply too classy for many of these down the bottom also with 54kgs, she comes in here at peak fitness, unlike say a couple above her in the weights who will need it longer. Happy to risk she’s clean and vib rouge who are older mares who just are not winning. Antelucan the main danger, similar theory of early season 4yo in moderate race as per race 2. But sister lil’s last 4 runs over 1400m have been its last start effort (a repeat of which would win this in my view), 4th to akzedeallia and tuscan sling beaten half a length (beating a few rivals), 2nd to real love and 5th beaten 2.5l to black heart bart. A repeat of any of those 4 runs wins this with any luck. Sister lil ew. saver antelucan. Majestic lass goes in the early quad. 4 – plenty of scr here, so glad I waited. But still a tough race. will be having a small play ew on spirit or larger who is sure to be decent odds given trainer/jockey combo. Well supported to win first up in same BM78 grade as this. some of his form from last prep is very, very good for a race like this. he did beat camdus last prep in race fast cash won from magicus (that’s good form for this), and ran 2nd to duke of Brunswick (giving it 2kgs). camdus $3.80 and spirit or larger $18 seems wrong to me. Others for early quad are bon aurum, justice league, camdus, mahattan blues, chase the horizon. 5 – under the louvre should be winning. Not a horse I religiously tip. You need to time your run. I got a bit lucky in the Stradbroke. Ive certainly done well betting against him. im quite torn. As the weight scale really means he should just win. but he’s not a horse you jump into at short price. Still, his first up run last prep was very very good at same track/trip with same weight. But……in that race most of his rivals had light weights, it was a true hcp. Here, its only 2-3kgs he is conceding. I think that is enough to see him get over the line. and, he should be quite forward, as there is not a lot for him in the back half of the spring. He cant run a mile. And cant beat chataqua at WFA. So its really races up to the Vic Health Cup that are suitable for him. and with a winter campaign in QLD, he should be pretty forward. Im a fan of the 4yo’s in 3, 4 and 6, but they are just too close at the weights for mine, really stepping out of restricted company for the first time, against a seasoned G1 campaigner. The plan is to be alive in the early and take it one out. And then possibly have a few reverse exactas with 3, 4 and 6 to beat it. if im out of the early quad, I guess im going to have to back under the louvre to win then. im sure he will drfit on the day, the bookies have done well taking him on, and will do so again. 6 – no firm view. Looking forward to watching the race. blue tycoon and hardham the 2 im most keen on. 7 – this is DK weir benefit. His 3 main chances in a box quin and tri a reasonable way to play the race. I find it hard to split the trio. The worst of the trio is the fittest, the best the least fit, the other 2nd up. this makes things really even. But, I just come back to how good the stable is at targeting horses and I note bart is on a cox plate campaign, so he might be underdone, as weir horses often are first up. the difficult thing to counter balance this with is, the fact bart maps for a perfect run, sitting 5th or so, given all the speed is the inside barriers. Bart deserves to be fave, all 4 runs for team weir are superb. he was taking on specialist sprinters in those races, that is not the case here. Gut feel is mahuta hits the front at 200m, bart grabs him late, palentino runs on for 3rd. 8 – so much here depends on how fit tom Melbourne is. his best wins have been in strong run races that turn into stamina test. That wont be the case here, unless he makes the tempo. This is a risky tactic first up in august ahead of long prep. but, he needs to get winning to get rating up, so perhaps he is wound up and ready to go. Market flucs will be crucial here. Arab down fits the bill of 1st run 2nd prep for an import, and he showed he is easily up to this class last prep if he can strike a dry track, so sensible by o’shea to have him down in melb, he is def the value. Provocative next best for sure, dry track form is very good. second bullet goes in the quad with some residual fitness. 9 – don’t doubt mamma and ocean embers stand out for me here. Mamma has the class on her side and has a ripping turn of foot and suspect she will only run 1200-1400m races this prep and is just so well weighted with only 2kgs to bottom. I find it hard to side with any of the off-season winter mares (you know the ones im talking about) to beat here. Ocean embers brings the race fitness and her winning form at caul has to respected, along with the fact her 2nd to viadorra read well with that horse running 2nd to heathely last sat…..but mamma did towel up viadorra last autumn over in ADL getting 2.5kgs from it, and ocean embers was beat fair and square by viadorra 2 runs back. Mamma on top for me. Saver with ocean embers. Lotta love next best, prefer her fresh over 1200m when shen can sit back and ping. SYD 1 cant tip against birds of Tokyo on the heavy track beating several key rivals and intertwined form lines last time 2 – extensible did it easy time beating a decent one in labdien and can win again 6 – sir bachhus promising type who can progress to group race getting in light in hcp and can be winning 1st up as a 4yo. 9- chetwood promising horse won on heaby first up. has 60.5kgs, but only concedes 3kgs or so to most rivals. BRIS 4 – prompt return former smart 2yo down in vic, found its old form first up last time, not much harder here. 7 – pienkaa got beat my smart one first up who has since won again. Has the speed to make use of inside draw and secure top run around Doomben. 8- mahican is former smart moody and Gerald ryan horse, who was def up to sat grade. Weird weight scale here, but it def suits him. will be long odds, but probably shouldn’t be. ADL – not much with some small fields, hurdles, first starters 5 – snake charmer worth a bet on the record of ultratune horses that get shifted to stokes in what is a moderate race, wouldn’t need to be any champion to win it, and comes of trial win. 6 – miss gunpowder should do it easy in ADL, before coming to Vic to win group races. Very short though. and finnegen rides from outside draw so will be ‘hunted’. Clearly best horse, bet price dependent. 7- my sancturary seems a moral on its last run, and perfectly placed by weir, in a very moderate BM75 race, yulong baby franked form running well in open hcp against good seasoned horses last sat. that was its first go at 2000m. really made yulong work to beat it. looks a moral.
michael steel
Guest
Charmed Harmony is a great each way bet or place bet. From barrier 3 will lead and loves the track. 5 runs back was second to Black Hear Bart here in a handicap. The Straddie form is usually good whether you second or last. ( As I've no doubt said before winning the race is like a curse)
Ryan
Guest
Every which way I analyse this race it just keeps coming back to BHB. Purely from a speed map perspective it seems ideal. Agree with your view on the speed map, and think its vital for this race. LOTS and Charmed Harmony surely rolling along in front. If LOTS doesn't jump with them he could really struggle. Either way you would think they would be sitting 1/2 for the first 1000. BHB should have enough early speed to sit 4-6th along with Rising Romance on the fence (assuming they use the gate and don't settle back like last fresh run) and I imagine from the draw Mahuta sits handy as well, possibly with Palentino close by. I'm backing the front 2 wont last in this, and some of the resuming horses with good runs with catch them late. I cant see anything finishing over the top of BHB if that's how it turns out. Should peel off the heels of the front 2 coming around the corner and be far too strong for the other resuming horses. I'm with you on Mahuta, willing to lay the horse until proven this campaign. Think the only really big danger is Palentino, and the market tends to agrees. First Four 1 - Black Heart Bart 2 - Palentino 3 - Rising Romance 4 - Tarzino As always should be a fascinating Spring!
Cameron Rose
Expert
This isn't genuine WFA race Bondy, given what most of these horses have done their winning over. There isn't a single G1 WFA winner in the field.
Tim
Guest
Ran 2nd in the straddie carrying 58kgs over 1400. He should be fine against this field.
Bondy
Guest
BHBarts been winning handicapped Grp 1's can he win a Grp 1 at WFAge ? ...