It’s incredible what a few weeks can unravel in football, particularly when the purists have decisively penciled in who will win the flag but are later stumped when the favourites fall by the wayside in the last few rounds, throwing open a myriad of other scenarios.
Hawthorn, three-time champions over the past years and strongly tipped to make it a ‘Fourthorn’, have tumbled from top spot to fourth on percentage with a shock loss to last year’s losing grand finalist West Coast.
Suddenly they are appearing to show chinks in their amour, or are they just fencing before making that decisive final thrust?
Time will tell if the opposition have worked out strategies to nullify the mighty Hawks but one thing that is for sure is that they are no pushovers when challenged.
The Sydney Swans have in the past been the biggest underachievers in terms of looking like flag favourites then falling away when the pressure of finals is applied to them. They have thus far looked like a team capable of taking that big final step this season, howeer their record this year suggests that anyone can upset them on a bad day.
With a scenario such as this it becomes a journalist’s nightmare to decisively predict who will win this year’s flag. Therefore, I will hedge my bets and say one of the first half a dozen have an equal chance to take away the game’s biggest prize.
The Swans have soared above the Hawks and Crows to top spot with a round to play out for the minor Premiership. Those following have performed exceptionally well to stake a claim for not just the home-and-away bragging rights but a shot at a prize fiercely guarded by the rampant Hawks over the past three years.
The next three are Geelong, rapidly rising outsiders Greater Western Sydney and last year’s disappointing grand finalists West Coast Eagles. The Eagles are having another crack at going all the way.
All three of them have the potential to go all the way but lack the key element of consistency.
If things work to plan, Sydney and Hawthorn could be in the fight for their lives if they cross paths with Greater Western Sydney and Adelaide. The latter are two teams that have flown under the radar but now appear poised to spoil the party for the fancied teams.
Greater Western Sydney thrashed the Swans in their last encounter and the Hawks had a lucky escape against the Crows before winning by three points at the MCG. These two could well create the upheaval to the Hawks and Swans before the grand final throwing the competition open to anyone.
This season has been most entertaining mainly for its unpredictability as teams outside the eight constantly challenged the top sides, sometimes providing the upsets. The main contributors for it have been the fast improving Greater Western Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, St Kilda and Carlton.
RooBoy16
Guest
Hope you're right. But a PF for North looks a long way off at this stage. Having said that, so much has gone wrong for North that they're finally due for some good luck. Would do wonders for the team if they can overcome Adelaide. Finals is all about momentum really. I've always maintained that if you get to week 2 in the finals then it's game on.
Raimond
Roar Guru
The collapse of Richmond & Fremantle -- and the Cats revival -- have created unexpected problems for the other teams in the top 8. The Giants in particular have had a hopelessly lopsided draw, playing the the cream (mostly) of the competition in the first 12 rounds and then a string of 7 games against cellar-dwellers. No wonder non-Victorian fans get paranoid when administrators manage to create a tougher draw for a team that had won 20 games in its entire history than the team that had won the past 3 flags.
Mike
Guest
Spot on! As was the case with North the last two years. Finished outside top 4 both years, did the hard work and travel to get to the prelims and then were spent. Not this year. A week off for all to freshen up and then game on!
Lroy
Guest
Exactly, the schedule on the sides outside the top 4 is usually brutal, playing interstate with 5-6 day breaks... top couple of sides were able to rest their best players in the lead-up to the finals while everyone else had to play hard just to make it.. generally they were worn out and had just fallen over the line to make up the numbers... Not so this year!! ;-)
Mike
Guest
The week off before the finals is detrimental to the top 4 teams, in my opinion. With no clear "stand out" side over the 23 rounds, this could be the first time we see a team win the flag from outside top 4. Will be an interesting finals series...