Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans: The definitive stats preview

The Queensland battle to play out on Saturday night offers plenty for all comers: Bennett’s Broncos, the Hayne x-factor for the Titans, and a true knock-out final.

Broncos versus Titans
7:55pm, Saturday 12 September, Suncorp Stadium

History is against both of these sides regardless of the result of this game. The last time a side won the title from outside the top four was in 1995 when the Bulldogs won the Premiership after finishing sixth.

However, that was the last year that the Canberra Raiders played in a preliminary final. So maybe that’s an omen? The winner of this match will meet the loser of the Melbourne-Cowboys match.

The History

Overall: This is the 21st meeting of these two clubs. It stands at 15 wins to the Broncos and five to the Titans.

The Form:Broncos come into this match having won their last five games. The Titans have only won two of their last five.

Finals:These two sides have only come up against each other in once in the finals. The Broncos beat the Titans 40-32 in the 2009 qualifying final at Robina.

The last ten:The Broncos have won eight of the last ten between the two sides, including the last four straight. The Titans last win against their neighbour was back in 2014 when they prevailed 12-8 at Skilled Stadium.

At this venue: The sides have met ten times at Suncorp Stadium since the Titans came into the competition in 2007. The Titans have only beaten the Broncos once, in their foundation season.

2016 records against top eight sides: The Broncos have won just five of their 11 games against the other finalists this season. The Titans have only won two of their 11 encounters against this seasons other finalists.

Referees: Gavin Badger has controlled these sides four times and the Broncos have won every one. Bernard Sutton has only reffed these two sides once – in 2009 – and the Titans won.

Scoring by Quarters
If we examine the Broncos average for and against for the season – broken up into quarters – against that of the Titans away, we should get a good indication of how the game may transpire.

Broncos Attack/Titans Defence

The Broncos aren’t the quickest out of the blocks at home. Their best point scoring periods are the last 20 minutes of each half, whereas the Titans worst times to concede points are in the first 20 and last 20 minute periods.

Titans Attack/Broncos defence

If there is a risk to the Broncos it is that the Titans come home with a wet sail in the last 20 minutes of matches and that is when Wayne Bennett’s boys concede the most points.

Defence

Team Stats – average per game

While this shows that the Broncos defensive stats are a large part of the reason for their finish outside the top four, they are clearly better than the Titans in every aspect.

The stats that should be of most concern to the Titans are the extra line breaks and missed tackles they concede. While the Broncos’ backline does have a patchwork look to it, they have the talent to expose these defensive deficiencies – especially the likes of Anthony Milford and Darius Boyd.

Also note that the Broncos are the least penalised side in the NRL this year and that the Titans are far more undisciplined. The Titans won’t get much from the referees and must be on their best behaviour.

Player Stats

The missed tackle culprits are your main focus here.

There are three types of missed tackles:
1. The sort that Andrew McCullogh and Ryan James do. They make so many that they fall off a few. They aren’t generally that costly.

2. The sort halves like Anthony Milford, Jonathan Thurston and Ash Taylor miss when targeted one-on-one. The value of having these playmakers far outweighs their liability. Further, most now have minders like Josh Papalii, Gavin Cooper or Alex Glenn that stop these misses turning into line breaks.

3. The sort made by a second rower or centre that is actually a defensive liability. These are the worst type. The misses by Zeb Taia and Chris McQueen are type number three.

If the Titans are to have any chance against the Broncos their second rowers must aim up in defence.

Ben Hunt’s missed tackles are almost at a Sandow level. Over three misses a game starts getting hard to justify. Greg Bird will come hunting him, as will Jarryd Hayne.

Attack

Team Stats – average per game

Not only are the Broncos defensive stats better, so are their attacking stats.

However, their forward packs lack of go forward this season is best evidenced by their 11th ranking this year for average metres gained. The Titans average more.

There is no question that Darius Boyd and Anthony Milford could fully exploit the Titans defensive frailties.

However, whether Tom Opacic and James Roberts can do the job that Jack Reed and Justin Hodges used to is questionable.

Player Stats

The playmaking potential of Brisbane is threefold with Hunt, Milford and Boyd all being very capable of running the attack.

The Titans have only Ashley Taylor and Tyrone Roberts, whose stats illustrate their a) inexperience or b) lower relative skills to their Broncos opponents. However, the Titans have a plethora of players with less than ten try and line break assists to their name in Ryan James, Greg Bird, Nathan Friend, Nathan Peats, Konrad Hurrell and David Mead. These players are no slouches.

Then there is the yet-to-erupt x-factor that is Jarryd Hayne. Before he heads off to play water polo – as Sam Thaiday so humorously suggested – he may just do a cameo of his 2014 form for Parramatta where he was the leading line breaker in the NRL.

The Danger Men
Anthony Milford is a remarkable talent in attack. While he went into a lull for a number of rounds, all signs are pointing to him getting back to his best line breaking and try assisting form any moment now. A big game from him may be enough to win it.

Corey Parker could be playing his last match and you can bet it’ll be a big one. The silver fox has more than enough skill and experience to get his side up for this game, keep them focussed and target their weaknesses with both effort and harsh words.

James Roberts has not been in great form for a while but there is no question that Jimmy Jet can tear defences apart on his day. He may well have a point to prove against his old team.

There are rumours that maybe Ashley Taylor may want to ‘go home’ to the Broncos very soon. There is no question the kid has talent. His team has been one of the season’s good news stories and his playmaking abilities are a large part of that. He might decide to demonstrate to Wayne Bennett that letting him go wasn’t such a good idea.

Ryan James might not have played State of Origin yet, but it’s only a matter of time. Not only does he play big minutes and make the Titans most tackles, he is also a line breaking and try scoring machine. He is a fair dinkum competitor and I believe may be the most influential forward on the field.

Jarryd Hayne. His comeback has not been stellar to date but he could explode at any moment. He’s learning the Titans methods and has games under his belt. If he does go off, the Broncos players better have their Mad Monday outfits ready to go!

Who is going to win and why

While there are a number of factors that show that the Titans could win this game, in reality their form coming into this game has been patchy at best. Hayne has yet to hit any great heights and they have only won two games against other finalists this year – Penrith in Round 11 and the Raiders in Round 4.

At a packed Suncorp Stadium, against a resurgent Broncos side, I just can’t see them causing the upset.

Prediction: Broncos by six