The second Victorian Group 1 of the season will be run this week, with the Makybe Diva Stakes taking centre stage.
It is the only Group 1 weight-for-age 1600-metre race in Victoria for the year, held at Flemington, with the long straight giving every horse their chance.
Black Heart Bart is the red-hot favourite, as well he might be after his demolition job in the Memsie Stakes, where he claimed the first Group 1 of the season with authority. Eight of the 13 runners here come from that lead-up race. (Click to Tweet)
Despite Black Heart Bart’s quality and versatility, he has never won beyond 1400m, so that is a little knock he must overcome. His record at 1500m and over is 9: 0-2-2, while his record at 1400m and below is 23: 13-7-0. If he is ever going to secure that 1600m victory, it must be now, in the form of his life against a field he has handled.
Rising Romance was a fine second in the Memsie, the fourth time she has run a placing at Group 1 WFA in Australia without winning one. She’s a good mare and usually keeps her opposition honest.
Palentino, off the back of a building Memsie run, will have his admirer’s third-up at the Flemington mile, the same circumstances which saw him win the Australian Guineas in the autumn. This has been his target race according to the Weir camp, but he has to be good enough to beat his stablemate Black Heart Bart.
Alpine Eagle is still the x-factor horse, running an even race first-up, and might be ready to take the next step now. His two runs at this track and distance have seen him be beaten a combined one length in the Australian Guineas and last year’s Makybe Diva Stakes.
Where he gets to from Barrier 10 is the awkward question that will be answered in the early stages, and he will need the speed to be on in order to run over the top of them. If he gets a genuine tempo, it can be his day.
Tarzino hit the line pleasingly from last in the Memsie, and will relish his preferred track and more ground, but will the mile still be too short? He’s got the quality to contend.
He or She is usually found wanting in this class of race, but his second-up record gives him some claims, as does the fact the Flemington mile should suit him down to the ground. He can get going once he winds up, and is capable of a boilover.
Sofia Rosa was in a similar boat to Tarzino, albeit with less flair, and she looks like she’ll need another. Prince of Penzance did enough, and will need the run again.
Happy Trails and Our Ivanhowe hit the race first-up, which was a winning formula for Fawkner last year.
Happy Trails hasn’t resumed over 1600m before, and it should suit him, but he usually needs a couple of runs. Our Ivanhowe is expected to go to another level and prove himself a high-level WFA horse this campaign, if we listen to Lee Freedman. He could well be in the reckoning if things go his way. Any cut out of the ground should help him.
Entirely Platinum usually proves a tough nut to crack in this sort of race when in form, and his first-up run in the PB Lawrence Stakes suggests he might be back. A month between runs is his query, but if he’s fit enough, the race may be run to suit and he could hold on for a place.
Jacquinot Bay will give his usual good account, and be somewhere thereabouts with luck. He is going well for something easier next time he drops in grade.
Ayres Rock is 150-1, and his main role is to play pace-maker. He’s not the worst horse in Australia.
Selections
1. Alpine Eagle 2. Black Heart Bart 3. Rising Romance 4. Entirely Platinum
Around the traps
Thames Court looks a great each-way bet in the Let’s Elope at Flemington. She can accelerate from a position in the first four in running and will take catching. Santa Ana Lane will be picking up a race or two this prep. He returned well and will take beating in the Bobbie Lewis, although it looks a hot race.
Up in Sydney, you can read my Golden Rose preview here. On the same card, Dixie Blossoms simply must be stuck with the Sheraco Stakes, after just failing to get the prize in the Toy Show Quality first-up. Her biggest danger might actually be a $17 chance in Cana, coming up from Melbourne for Team Hawkes.
Rose’s roughie
Selenia hit the line well first-up at big odds in the Quezette Stakes, which is turning into a strong form race, and she jumps at a similar price in Race 2 at Flemington.
She is tough and honest, and has won down the straight. If Barrier 15 is no spoil, she should be somewhere around the mark in what looks an even field.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Great stuff gents & good luck to all.
andrew
Guest
Geel 7 – with jono over in bali and unable to get on, today represents the perfect time to back a horse we both share a following of in tigidig tigidig. Each way of course. In fact, this could be a good weekend to get some tips from jono given he cant get on, noting one of his fave in ‘the thug’ got up at sand on wed. 1 – lucques has been supported in the betting all runs this prep, and run well each time, but now he strike the right winnable race for him now fully fit and up to his preferred staying trip. He is a winner this track/trip over summer in same grade and put together some good form last prep in the 2400-2500m races in what I would say were races with more depth than this. happy to work around refectory and black tomahawk in what was a pretty weak race at MV last time and also Try Four onto a drier track and stronger race with his mixed jumping/flat form. 4 – ew bet bon aurum here who ran well 1st up in a weaker race with big weight. Step up to 1400m is suitable winning twice that trip (inc this meeting last year) last spring in listed/group races. Williams good record in 1400m race at FLem, esp from wide draws, no issue if he has to side wide, as tempo does not look strong, far better to be creeping into race with clear air in your own rhythm than being dictated to. 1400m races at Flem rarely suit those bailed up on inside looking for runs, very much a momentum circuit, as 1400m races are often the most tactical. 6 – ew santa ana lane who has it all over under the louvre at the weights from their 1st up clash. This is just a tick over run for the lourvre (was entered into trials also) and the possibly don’t want to win to avoid more weight in G1 Vic Health Cup. Santa on the other hand could do with a win to get its rating up. can track through with the monster who will lead and basically tag it into the race and be able to get a good run. horse who has always been highly touted and shown good ability, this is race for him for get that good group win, that could see him become a factor in the 1400/1600m hcps over spring. Like the fact he has had a run back, with many of these 1st up. tough ask winning first up down flem over 1200m for mine. 8 – plenty of exposed and intertwined form to work with here. 2 key races at the cockram and the catch a fire race from MV. Im with French emotion and as confident as you can be in a capacity field of mares where its likely be to be 2 lengths between 8 of them over the line and best ride/run probably diff between winning and running a good 6th. No luck first up, in a pretty ordinary ride, somehow ending up 3 pairs back the fence from a wide draw, and then just never getting clear air to build momentum. Big weight swing on catch a fire and confident it can turn tables on it. this form can easily lined up into the cockram where there wasn’t a lot between thames court, don’t doubt mamma (not sure gate 1 helps her), and Telopea. French emoition sat 3 wide no cover and easily accounted for Telopea giving it weight last prep, so very confident French emotion lines up comparably, if not favourably, with the cockram formlines. And of course all the 4yo mares have clashed several times including last spring and in the autumn. Suppose you need to place more weigh to the autumn form where badawiyaa won easily, this track/trip when also first up, and won here in spring also (beating thames court), she is a logical and deserved fave, even with the 59kgs. 9 – most of these are 1st up or 2nd up and this is a transit race for them. Pilote d-essai was super 1st up, but underwhelming 2nd up, some may drop off, but I think he is worth 1 more chance. It’s a race he simply has to win. and should be at his peak to do so, and with the fitness accrued from the 2nd up run when the race didn’t pan out well, but still average final 100m, should put him in good stead for this. big weight swing on royal repute whose ability to use a claim is now lapsed. It’s D day, but I think he will get the job done, and reckon he might get risked a bit in the market and end up with $3.50 or so. ADL 7 – silvera won well on debut at Mildura franking its good trial form to group class big memory winning easily, with big margins, and quicker time than older horses. shapes a possible derby prospect and keen to follow him through the grades. Taking a leap of faith here with all of them up to mile for 1st time, so somewhat speculative, but happy to play. SYD 8 – torn beween two fresh up snowden runners I have high opinions of in nancy and ravi. Slight leaning ravi, but will prob take a split and back them both, and def having a small quin BRIS 6 – Pienka was tipped last time and won and stays in the same grade but goes up 1.5kgs and has wider draw, but still exceptionally well weighted under this unorthodox weight scale, and think she can win again given both her runs this prep have been very good. she is probably only 1 or 2 more wins from racing herself out of QLD and Golan sending her down to Syd or Melb for some group/listed races in the coming months. KILMORE 7 – powerdworks is ready to win. prob silly of me to jump on a bit early in its prep being a slow fitness build of weir which is typical for him, but from good draw with yendall on and 4th up and staying at a nice distance for it, she can (needs to) break through for a win this prep. SUN 6 – manga rossa good class sat grade mare, who goes well fresh. In fact, both its fresh runs have been this track/trip for a win and a nose 2nd . this is a tougher race than those, but her form last prep was good early (mossing around, lahqa), before tapering off – in higher grade races. Mallyon knows the horse well and think she can resume with another strong showing swooping home from back half of field on the big track at sale. 7 – orient line has put in 2 very good runs from back of field at sand so far this prep, from wide draws each time. now 3rd up and out in distance, think then can go forward here and no reason to suggest he wont hold that current form and looks a winnable race given we are talking a horse who is a sat grade winner at flem and run 2nd to the (then flying) lord aspen at flem over the carnival too, in a BM78. Best: no clear standout this week, like with voodoo lad last week. plenty selected are in the $6-$8 range, and not confident enough to ‘declare’ polite essai. Pushed for something id say lucque and santa ana lane to both place as a multi at around $6 is a good play.
Cameron Rose
Expert
A little bit of a D-day for Palentino. Must run top three I think. He can still mature though, it's not the end of the world if he isn't right in the finish. May be a handicap horse for the time being. Go Toorak / Emirates with him. Catch A Fire is a nice mare, and after Merriest last week, we should all be jumping on board with you!
Razzar
Guest
Looks a D Day to me Cam, re Palentino. Time for this 4yo now to show what he's got, or is he an also-ran? I think he will rise to it, but tomorrow's the day. He doesn't have to win; but he needs to close off race impressively. I'll take the tri with 'Bart' to show I've faith. The Lets Elope is a typical mares race that's so prickly. But I love Mares races with big fields. At least there's some value once you drill down. That said, my way to flesh out my Chioce is to find a last start winner. Over time Mares often back up winning more often than the Males. Only one in this field, Catch a Fire. Nice win from long run in fresh. She contested against the Males two starts back. That's a plus for mine as many of these Mares have rarely raced against the boys. She has drawn well, and should sit handy to midfield, & rates an $8 chance for mine. Good luck punters.