There’s no doubt the 2016 National Rugby Championship shapes as the best yet. This weekend marks an important point in the season with only three rounds to follow.
While teams in the top four will be looking to consolidate their places, those currently outside the top four really can’t afford another loss, and that’s going to be difficult for Melbourne and Brisbane City when they face off this weekend. The loser would be up against it from here on, you would imagine, to qualify for the semi-finals.
For Western Sydney and Queensland Country – both winless after three rounds – another loss this weekend would essentially see their season over. Even if they won every game remaining, I can’t see how three wins will be enough to qualify.
At the other end of the scale, the unbeaten Sydney Rays and NSW Country face off in the first game of the weekend and it promises to be a belter. I don’t think anyone was expecting two unbeaten NSW teams going into Round 4, but the competition is all the better for it.
SATURDAY: Sydney Rays v NSW Country Eagles; Pittwater Rugby Park, Sydney, 1:00pm AEST
There’s no other way to put it, it’s a bracket-fest for the Rays, who will welcome back Jack Dempsey from suspension, but haven’t quite nailed down several positions.
Winger Richard Woolf is definitely out, with an elbow injury he picked up last weekend likely to end his NRC campaign, while his counterpart from the other flank, Harry Jones is out with a niggly quad. Con Foley must get through the Return to Play protocols, too.
The clash between 2017 Waratahs teammates Damien Fitzpatrick and Tolu Latu will be a cracker, but the Eagles will be without Andrew Kellaway from another week. Prop Sam Needs comes into tighthead for Tom Robertson in the only Country change, with Robertson in line to be Wallabies debutant number eight in 2016.
SYDNEY (1-15): Rory O’Connor/Ezra Luxton, Damien Fitzpatrick, Lawrance Hunting, Connor Vest, Nick Palmer, Jack Dempsey, Will Miller, Michael Wells, Matt Lucas ©, Angus Sinclair, Johnathan Malo/Josh Turner, Irae Simone, Con Foley, Josh Turner/Seb Wileman, Cameron Clark.
Bench: James Hilterbrand, Rory O’Connor/Ezra Luxton, Mitch Lewis, Adrian Hall/Michael Smith, James Brown, Dewet Roos, Sam Lane, Seb Wileman/Josh Turner/Dennis Pili-Gaitau.
NSW COUNTRY: Paddy Ryan ©, Tolu Latu, Sam Needs, Ned Hanigan, Tim Buchanan, Sam Figg, Rowan Perry, Sam Ward, Jake Gordon, Andrew Deegan, Alex Newsome, Kyle Godwin/Tom Hill, David Horwitz, Reece Robinson, Angus Roberts.
Bench: Jed Gillespie, Folau Fa’ainga, Cameron Betham, Ryan McCauley, Mark Baldwin, Sam Croke, Tayler Adams, Tom Hill/Kyle Godwin, Tom Cusack (one to be omitted)
Melbourne Rising v Brisbane City; Harlequin Oval, Melbourne, 3pm AEST
No returning Wallabies for the Rising, but skipper Nic Stirzaker and winger Ah-Mu Tuimalealiifano are both back after being late withdrawals last week. Jordy Reid switches to the blindside, with Melbourne Unicorns opensider Ikapote Tupai earning a first Rising start. Former Rebel Lloyd Johansson makes his first Rising start for 2016, too, in the centres alongside Tom English.
City coach Rod Seib has made a handful of changes to the side that suffered a late-game fade out against Canberra last Sunday. With Leroy Houston on his way back to ‘the Rec’ on a medical cover lean deal with former Premiership club Bath, Criff Tupou – brother of a certain cult hero prop – gets his first NRC start at blindside, with Isi Naisarani shifting to no.8. Toby White, the man who scored the first ever try on the NRC, is back at outside centre, pushing Chris Kuridrani out to the right wing.
MELBOURNE: Cruze Ah Nau, Pat Leafa, Tim Metcher, Sam Jeffries, Alex Toolis, Jordy Reid, Ikapote Tupai, Harley Fox, Nic Stirzaker, Ben Meehan, Ah-Mu Tuimalealiifano, Lloyd Johansson, Tom English, Jonah Placid, Jack Debreczeni.
Bench: Siliva, Tom Moloney, Tyrel Lomax, Steve Cummins, Rob Leota, Mick Snowden, Sione Tuipulotu, Isaiah Leota.
BRISBANE CITY: Pettowa Paraka, Andrew Ready, Sam Talakai (c), Luke Beauchamp, Lukhan Tui, Criff Tupou, Michael Gunn, Isi Naisarani, Nick Frisby, Jake McIntyre, Alex Gibbon, Patrick James, Toby White, Chris Kuridrani, Brad Lacey.
Bench: Matt Mafi, Markus Vanzati, Feao Fotuaika, Jeremiah Lynch, Tuaina Tualima, Moses Sorovi, Mitch Felsman, Brendan Mitchell.
SUNDAY: Uni of Canberra Vikings v Western Sydney Rams; Viking Park, Canberra, 1pm AEST
Bunkering down for their maiden Horan-Little Shield defence, the Vikings have recalled the cavalry, with Jarrad Butler, Joe Powell, and Nick Jooste all coming back into the starting side. Robbie Coleman – who admitted to me this week that he thinks he’s wasted the last three years of his career – stays at 10, and Jooste will start at fullback. 2016 John I Dent Cup leading try-scorer Jamie Kotz comes onto the bench for Henry Speight.
There’s still no Hugh Roach for the Rams, and I suspect his continued absence is more precautionary than anything else now. And furthermore, if the Rams happen to drop another this weekend, I doubt we’ll see Roach at all in 2016. But Roach’s absence allows a surprise NRC debut for Wallaby and Western Force veteran Nathan Charles returning from injury.
Though he’s been listed as a Perth Spirit player for the past couple of seasons, he’s never actually played an NRC game. Fijian 7s star Vatemo Ravouvou will be better for last week’s run.
CANBERRA: Sione Taula, Robbie Abel, Leslie Leulua’iali’i-Makin, Blake Enever, Sam Carter, Tom Staniforth, Dean Oakman-Hunt, Jarrad Butler (c), Joe Powell, Robbie Coleman, Lausii Taliauli, Jordan Jackson-Hope, Andrew Smith, Andrew Robinson, Nick Jooste.
Bench: Connal McInerney, Faalelei Sione, Ray Dobson, OJ Noa, Darcy Swain, Brent Hamlin, Jake Rakic, Jamie Kotz.
WESTERN SYDNEY: Matt Gibbon, Brandon Paenga-Amosa, David Lolohea, Filimone Tufui, Vaitoa Senio Toleafoa, Rhys Allen, Tupou Sopoaga, Tyrone Viiga, Scott Gale, Paul Asquith (c), Luke Smart, Mau David Minute, Apolosi Latunipulu, Albert Nikoro, Vatemo Ravouvou.
Bench: Nathan Charles, Harrison Lloyd, Jack Payne, Thomas Alexander, Jodan Tuapou, Waldo Wessels, Mitchell Walton, Rob Buaserau.
Perth Spirit v Queensland Country; UWA Sports Park, Perth, 3pm AEST
Perth are in the top four. That might surprise some people, because it doesn’t really feel like they’ve done anything yet in 2016. But they get a chance to consolidate this weekend, and will welcome back Wallabies no.8 Ben McCalman, and well as Western Force regulars Ross Haylett-Petty, Ian Prior, and Marcel Brache for their second home game of the season.
Queensland Country will have a new captain this week, with opensider Conor Mitchell taking the armband while scrumhalf and regular skipper James Tuttle drops back to the bench. Port Douglas product Issak Fines-Leleiwasa gets a first start in the no.9. Phil Potgeiter comes into the second row for Rob Simmons, one of seven changes made by Toutai Kefu. Still no Brad Thorn though, and again, if Country drop a fourth straight game, you have to wonder if there would be any point in Thorn returning.
PERTH: Laione Mulikihaamea, Harry Scoble, Shambeckler Vui, Kieran Stringer, Onehunga Havili, Ross Haylett-Petty, Kane Koteka, Ben McCalman, Ryan Louwrens, Jono Lance (c), Eric Vasukicakau, Bill Meakes, Ammon Matuauto, Marcel Brache, Luke Morahan.
Bench: Tom Sheminant, Mees Erasmus, Jermaine Ainsley, Russell Burges, Hadleigh May, Ian Prior, Ben Tapuai, AJ Alatimu.
QUEENSLAND COUNTRY: Sef Fa’agase Alex Casey, Kirwan Sanday, Izack Rodda, Phil Potgieter, Ted Postal, Conor Mitchell (c), Angus Scott-Young, Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, Mitch Third, Liam McNamara, Duncan Paia’aua, Izaia Perese, Tyrone Lefau, Tom Banks.
Bench: Feleti Kaitu’u, Ben Daley, Taniela Tupou, Maclean Jones, Jack Cornelsen, James Tuttle, Mack Mason, Tom Pincus.
Fox Sports will broadcast both 3pm games each Saturday and Sunday (Ch.502), and the 1pm live streamed games can be viewed via www.FoxSports.com.au, via the Fox Sports mobile app, or via Apple TV or Telstra TV through the FOX SPORTS NOW app.
To access the streams, you’ll need a Fox Sports online account, which is not the same as your Foxtel pay-tv account.
If you have a Fox Sports (TV) subscription, or a digital subscription to any of the News Limited mastheads, you could be eligible for a free FOX SPORTS Digital Subscription that gives you full access to the NRC live streams. Head to www.Fox Sports.com.au/fox-sports-subscription to find out more, create your online account, and then you’re away.
If you created an account last season to access the streams, then you’re already good to go.
Last week: Paddy 3; Brett, and The Crowd 2; daylight, and then Geoff a long way further behind with donuts…
Geoff
“The only saving grace with low fan interest in the NRC is that my 0/4 last week might sneak under the radar. To be fair, three of the games were close and the one that wasn’t, everybody got wrong. So there!
“I’ve decided to adopt Michael Cheika’s tactics, post the Sydney thrashing; i.e. draw a line in the sand, go the niggle just to get a bit of respect back on the scoreboard, doesn’t matter if it’s not pretty, and think about moving forward again only after that’s done.
“With that in mind, it’s all home teams this week, Sydney Rays, Melbourne Rising, UC Vikings and Perth Spirit.”
Paddy
“I’m going to not use the Geoff Parkes approach with anything from now on. Considering his ‘success’ last week – something never achieved on Roar tipping before – I think it’s best to avoid everything Parkes-related.
“All that said, I think he’s pretty spot on this week. Sydney Rays are going to be a close thing, but should still win.
“I’m going Brisbane City over a strong Melbourne Rising side, while the Vikings and Spirit get my nods this week. Gee this competition is close though…”
Brett
Wow, none right in a full round… I don’t even think I’ve managed that, and I know a thing or two about crap tipping. And judging by last week’s results, I’m now feeling nervous about how relatively easy this week’s tips came about.
I like that my esteemed colleagues have stuck with the Rays, because that makes me more comfortable about sticking with NSW Country. I just don’t think we’ve really seen the Rays properly tested against better opposition in their three wins, whereas the Eagles have beaten both last season’s Finalists. Both sides are averaging five tries a game though, so it’s going to be entertaining either way.
In the other games, Melbourne just look that little bit sharper to me, Canberra shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping the Shield for another week, and while I was always favouring Perth at home, the inclusion of McCalman and co only strengthens that favouritism.
The summary
The Crowd tips..
…the same as Brett again. Through the Sydney Rays-NSW Country pick has swayed back and forward the whole time, and with the final margin just a handful of responses. Final results were:
52.5% NSW Country Eagles
61.6% Melbourne Rising
71.7% Canberra Vikings
68.0% Perth Spirit
Brett McKay
Expert
It absolutely is Train. And simple economics probably dictates that the smaller grounds will remain for the time being..
Beezlebub
Guest
Hindsight on a Sunday morning, Argentina never showed up & a shadow ot their former selves in NZL no idea what happened. The Yarpies played a lot better than the did with the WB's and after two wins I still think we have no idea if this is a genuine improvement or playing mediocre teams helps?
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
That's the catch 22, isn't it Brett? Until the NRC can essentially afford to lose money on ground rental, it won't attract large enough crowds to cover ground rental. I think the Rising averaged over 2000 fans per game in 2014, but that dropped when they took games away from AAMI Park in 2015.
Brett McKay
Expert
Haha, you're a crack up, CS. You've just blown your argument apart. You can no longer ask questions about promotion of the NRC. You've just proved that decisions about attending a game of rugby or not are more than just about awareness and promotion. Sometimes, people just decide not to go. Sometimes they have other engagements. Sometimes, despite absolutely loving the game, they let factors like the venue and getting to that venue dictate. So you've been going on about a lack of promotion of the NRC this whole time - and there can always be more, no-one says otherwise - but you've just proved that all the NRC promotion in the world wouldn't have made a lick of difference for you. So why are the crowds so small? Because like you've just done today, sometimes people who are fully aware there's a game on just decide not to go. That's life, and that's a perfectly reasonable decision to make. More promotion wouldn't have changed your mind today, and I'd guessing you weren't alone in making the decision you have. And you can hardly blame the crowds on the amount of promotion any more, can you.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
And you've answered your own question... The club grounds. I went to every Brisbane City match I could last year. Parking at Ballymore was more than adequate for crowds below 5000. Today I did not go to the Rising game for the same reason as you. I didn't want to travel to Ashwood, streets away then walk to the field. If the game was at Lakeside Stadium or AAMI Park I would have. The club grounds generally are not serviced well enough by public transport or adequate parking and roads for large events. As a result it's a deterrent.
concerned supporter
Guest
@Brett, I am certainly not having a go at you or your articles or efforts. You are one of the very few doing a decent job in promoting the NRC. Are you familiar with Saturday Sydney Traffic? Bondi to Pittwater & back,it would be a nightmare.
Working Class Rugger
Guest
Another reason why this should be a humdinger. Seriously, if you're within Cooee of Pittwater Rugby Park and are reading htis, get you butt on down. Round up as many of your friends and family as you can and enjoy a great afternoon of Rugby.
Brett McKay
Expert
What more can I say? The answer is clearly awareness and promotion, as it has always been, and you are told every time you ask the same question. Seriously, what are you expecting me to say? You tell me this: you know there's a huge game on in Sydney today, and I have strong suspicions that your club has a skin in one of the participating teams. So are you going?
concerned supporter
Guest
@ Brett, I do watch and enjoy some NRC. You have not answered why the attendances are so small.
Brett McKay
Expert
That's a ridiculous comparison and you know it..
Brett McKay
Expert
Genuinely BREAKING NEWS: Scott Fardy is a late inclusion on the bench for the Sydney Rays in this afternoon's blockbuster at Pittwater. If you were umming and ahhing about going, there's your confirmation right there!!
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
No the AFL has also relied on media promotion which they didn't pay for. Considering the close to 100,000 registered players in Sydney I doubt they needed to reach any new fans to get that attendance for a semi final. The swans were getting 70,000 to games at ANZ a decade ago.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Well in fairness Salvinprobably still would have left because of his age when he did, but a huge factor was the writing on the wall. When he left he was the Brumbies 3rd choice open side behind Faing'a and Hooper.
concerned supporter
Guest
@Brett & TWAS,NRC Promotion & Marketing, If what you say is true why are the crowds at NRC games not announced and are embarrassingly small. Do you think that if the AFL had relied mainly on social media promotion that the crowd last week v Swans would have been 60,000?
Fact Cheika
Guest
Hi Train! Julian Salvi and Blair Connor are very different reference points. Julian Salvi didn't leave because he couldn't get a full time contract. He has over 63 caps for the Brumbies and would most likely still be playing in Austraila if he wanted to. He left because he was never going to get a look in for the Wallabies, realised that and thought he'd prefer to see the world (and be paid more). Blair Connor only had 7 super rugby caps and was very much a fringe Reds squad player.
Brett McKay
Expert
I don't know about 'comfortably' C334, but your reasoning is very similar to mine for picking NSW Country. Country's wins have been against the best teams in the comp, and the Rays' have been against bottom or mid-table teams. The Rays' defence is the stingiest in the comp to date, but you're right, it will get a huge test from here on. Country to me, have a little bit more quality across the park, and I don't think we can underestimate the loss of Woolf and Jones for the Rays this week..
Celtic334
Guest
I'm not sure if I'm the only one who thinks country will comfortably win this. I'm expecting the Rays to just slide into the finals, so far they have beaten the Rams, qld country, who will both prob come last and 2nd last and Perth at home, who by super standards have never travelled well. Country on the other hand have beaten Canberra, Melbourne and Brisbane city. Prob the 3 most successful teams in this competition to date. It's possible that they will lose this, Brisbane city, Canberra and Melbourne.
Celtic334
Guest
Lol train I'm starting to think you are a direct clone of me with that description.
Celtic334
Guest
Agreed, I'm expecting him to kick on next season. The blind wallabies supporter I am is harboring thoughts of a Coleman, staniforth, tui 4,5,6 come the next World Cup. Haha. Prob way too much optimism. On another note i have to single out Sam carter for some praise. I'll put my hand up for bracketing him as soft and only offering value at set piece time, but he looks like he's developing/expanding what he's got to offer on the field. Hopefully he can keep this up.
Brett McKay
Expert
Yeah, I have to admit all this coming together in the last day or two has really rammed it all home for me, too. I knew about the M10C contracts in NZ were worth between $18K-$60K (even if that's NZD), and I mentioned a month ago that that's why Ben Matwijow (now contracted to the Force), Guy Millar, and Matt Phillip (both uncontracted but NRC regulars last season) have forgone the NRC. You might've notice ex-Brumbies scrumhalf Michael Dowsett playing alongside Miallr and Philip for Southland last night. Even if we could get an average package of $30K to non-SR contracted NRC players, that would make a huge difference to playing stocks around the country, both up and down the pyramid...