Just three matches remain before the premiers for season 2016 are decided, with the two preliminary finals this weekend to determine who will fight it out for the ultimate prize on the first Saturday of October.
For the first time since 2007, four teams that didn’t make the last four the previous year will be represented, with the Geelong Cats, Sydney Swans, GWS Giants and Western Bulldogs forming this year’s preliminary final line-up.
It’ll be up to the Cats and Bulldogs to prevent an all-Sydney grand final, which not only shapes as a dream match-up for the AFL, but also, the nightmare that Eddie McGuire has dreaded since the Giants entered the AFL in 2012.
The Cats and Giants will start favourites in this weekend’s preliminary final matches, and if they both win through as expected, then it could see Steve Johnson face off against his old club in the biggest match of the season.
All is set for what should be two blockbuster matches to decide our grand finalists for 2016. Here are the two preliminary final matches previewed in full detail:
Geelong Cats [2] versus Sydney Swans [1]
Friday, September 23
7:50pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Last finals meeting: Sydney Swans 7.14 (56) defeated Geelong Cats 7.11 (53) at the Sydney Cricket Ground, second semi-final, 2005.
This season: Sydney Swans 15.8 (98) defeated Geelong Cats 9.6 (60) at Simonds Stadium, Round 16.
A flaw in the current AFL finals system is that it is possible for teams one and two to meet before the grand final, and that’s exactly what will happen for the first time since 2013 when the best two sides of 2016 face off at the MCG this Friday night.
The Sydney Swans and Geelong Cats proved to be the two most consistent teams over the course of 23 rounds, which makes it a shame that they are facing off on the second-last Friday of September rather than the first day of October this year.
The Cats enter Friday night’s clash fresh off a fortnight’s break earned by beating Hawthorn by two points in their qualifying final, while the Swans rebounded by beating the Adelaide Crows last week after losing to GWS in their qualifying final.
The manner in which the Swans dominated the Crows from start to finish is set to worry Chris Scott’s men, who have lost three of their last four matches against the red and white by an average of 64 points.
This includes their solitary meeting this year in which the Swans led from start to finish to win by 38 points in what was co-captain Kieren Jack’s 200th game. It came despite the best efforts of Brownlow Medal favourite Patrick Dangerfield, who gathered 18 of his 33 disposals for the Cats in the first quarter.
While the Cats go in on the back of a longer break, the Swans will do so on the back of a six-day break and with doubts hovering over the availability of Kurt Tippett, Jarrad McVeigh and Gary Rohan.
Tippett is set to return after breaking his jaw in the qualifying final loss to the Giants while McVeigh and Rohan will be given until the last minute to prove their fitness. Rising Star winner Callum Mills (hamstring) is no certainty to return.
For the Cats, Lachie Henderson is in line to return after undergoing knee surgery, but who he replaces will be a huge question throughout the week.
This Friday’s clash will be the first between the Cats and Swans in a final since the famous 2005 semi-final in which Nick Davis kicked four final quarter goals, including the match winner with seconds left, to give the Swans a three-point win.
The heartbreaking loss endured by the Cats would spur them on to one of the club’s most consistent periods between 2007 and 2014, in which they won three flags, finished runner-up in 2008 and only once finished outside the top four.
And after missing out on the finals for the first time since 2006 last year, Chris Scott’s men have rocketed back up the ladder and are well poised to win their first premiership since 2011.
They do have somewhat of a hoodoo to overcome, though – they have never beaten the Swans in a final and this will be their first meeting at the MCG since 1934.
Expect the longer break to do wonders for the Cats here.
For the winner: a berth in the grand final.
For the loser: season over.
Prediction: Geelong Cats by 20 points.
GWS Giants [4] versus Western Bulldogs [7]
Saturday, September 24
5:15pm
Spotless Stadium
Last finals meeting: N/A
This season: GWS Giants 15.8 (98) defeated Western Bulldogs 10.13 (73) at Spotless Stadium, Round 9.
Regardless of the outcome of the first preliminary final, there is set to be a fairytale grand finalist this year, whether it’d be the GWS Giants or the Western Bulldogs, two of the most exciting teams fans have watched over the course of the season.
The AFL probably knew that this day would come ever since the Giants entered the AFL in 2012, and after years of struggle, the fifth-year club is now just four quarters away from the biggest match in their short history.
The Giants will enter this match on the back of a fortnight’s break, which they earned by beating the cross-town rivals the Sydney Swans by 36 points in the qualifying final at ANZ Stadium.
Playing in their first finals match, the Giants showed no signs of nerves against a side which was contesting its 18th finals series in the past 21 years.
Though they will be without veteran Steve Johnson (suspended), Leon Cameron’s men will start favourites to beat the Western Bulldogs, who will be on the road for the third time in their last four matches.
The Bulldogs continued their finals charge by defeating Hawthorn by 23 points at the MCG last Friday night, ending their quest for four straight premierships and keeping that record safely in the hands of Collingwood (1927-30).
The win was inspired by the heroics of third-year player Marcus Bontempelli, who despite turning 21 in November has already demonstrated good leadership skills. He became the youngest player in VFL/AFL history to captain a winning side when the Bulldogs defeated West Coast by eight points in round eleven.
Acting captain Easton Wood has also led from the front since Robert Murphy’s season-ending knee injury in Round 3, which threatened to derail the club’s 2016 just a year after the club had made the finals.
History will be against the Western Bulldogs here, with the club having not reached the grand final since 1961 nor won a premiership since 1954. Additionally, the club suffered a hat-trick of preliminary final defeats between 2008 and 2010.
However, according to some, reaching the final four is just reward for the tough years the club had endured between then and when Luke Beveridge was appointed coach prior to the start of the 2015 season.
He took over at a time in which they were near or at rock bottom, the club having missed the finals for a fourth consecutive season and having had its CEO and captain walk out in the months following the 2014 season.
Now, the 46-year-old has not only led his club to two consecutive September campaigns, but also to the penultimate weekend of the season for the first time in six years.
But while the Bulldogs will be out to continue their fairytale charge to an unlikely grand final, it’s the Giants who will start the favourites as they bid to become the quickest expansion club in history to win the flag.
For the winner: a well-deserved berth in the grand final.
For the loser: season over.
Prediction: GWS Giants by 25 points.
me too
Guest
Four of my 18 teams are still in it!
me too
Guest
It's hardly a flaw in the final system if team one or two meet because one of them lost their first final. it doesn't happen in other sports because the loser would be out. Given the AFL's uneven fixture the ladder (especially this year) is not necessarily indicative of the best best - that's what finals are for - to sort the wheat from the chaff. And GWS showed rather emphatically that they are better than Sydney - smashing them at a neutral ground. So all good and fair - the two best teams thus far are on opposing sides of the finals draw.
EddyJ
Guest
Why the angry tone? Calm down a bit. My point is that it's a fine line. Geelong barely beat Richmond, Sydney barely beat Carlton Sydney narrowly lost to Hawthorn, Geelong narrowly defeated Hawthorn (a game decided by a kick on the siren surely can go either way). Sydney won 7 of 8, Geelong have won 8 of 8. You have to take into account that Geelong's last loss was against Sydney, otherwise why bother having any analysis at all? The two teams are close to even on form and statistics, and will depend on how Sydney manages the six-day turnaround, and how Geelong manages playing one match in four weeks. I don't know the answer to this, but we'll find out on Friday night.
Shane
Guest
There have been no recent matches between Sydney and Geelong. The last match they played was almost half a season ago and the Cats haven't lost since, despite encountering Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn. The Swans, in the same period, lost to Hawthorn, barely beat Carlton and North Melbourne, and lost to GWS. Hardly credible to rate their form line half a season ago better than the recent form lines of both teams.
Bman
Guest
Thinking Mitchell will go straight to dangerfield this time round and if he can curb his influence like last time the rest of the swans mids should do enough to roll geelong. Western bulldogs have won their way this far outnumbering the other team and spreading from the contest when they take possession. Unfortunately they come up against the team that does this better and who also has more talent at each end of the ground. Should be a very exciting game to watch but i think that GWS will get up. So then who wins out of GWS v Sydney? Who knows. Hard to go past GWS after comprehensively beating them 2 weeks ago.
Penster
Guest
Sydney will put on a show and finish Geelong's season. 1 match in 3 weeks is terrible finals prep and the Swans are too classy. GWS have had the extra break also but can't see the Doggies getting much further, but it'll be an epic battle at the odd little pear shaped Spotless Stadium. Swans to destroy anyone and everyone on grand final day by 6 goals. To note: of the finals games so far, I've correctly tipped 1 out of 6.
Avatar
Roar Guru
The Western Bulldogs have never played a preliminary final interstate. This Saturday's match against the Giants will be their first prelim final outside Victoria. Also, this will be their third trip to Sydney this year alone.
Dave
Guest
As a Cats fan, I'm much happier coming into the game knowing the Swans have beaten the Cats recently. The biggest knock on the Cats has been their habit of taking teams lightly. The fact that the'y been handsomely beaten by Sydney in 3 of the last 4 matches tells me the Cats will come into this game full of intensity, and if the second tier of players come to play, they're a good chance of winning on Friday night.
EddyJ
Guest
And guess which team Geelong played when they last lost a match.
EddyJ
Guest
I think that's why it will come done to how the Sydney manage the six-day break, and Geelong manage just playing one game a month. We also have to look at recent matches between Sydney and Geelong, not that good for Geelong.
Shane
Guest
Which one of the last four did they lose, and who were their opponents when they won? Geelong have won eight of their last eight, and have more recovery time and you are still tipping Sydney?
Shane
Guest
These sound like feel good opinions, it feels good to downplay the Cats. The facts are that Geelong's season long stats are comparable to Sydney's. And at crunch time, the extra recovery time is a certain factor. Write off Geelong, it won't affect gameday.
EddyJ
Guest
I'm not so sure about Geelong. One game in four weeks means that they're well rested, but perhaps out of their routines? You can only play against the teams determined by the fixuture – but they finished off the home and away season with soft matches. Essendon, Brisbane, Melbourne, and just got over the line against Richmond. Excellent match against Hawthorn though, but whenever a game is decided by a kick on the siren, the winner has to be considered lucky. The Bartel issue is interesting. Playing him when he's not in great form will affect them on the field, but forcing him out of team into a likely retirement, might affect the team off the field, in the same way North was gutted by the announcement that Harvey, Petrie and Del Santo weren't going to continue. And it showed in the match against GWS. If Sydney play they way they did against Adelaide, they'll crush Geelong – but, six-day break, injuries... it's hard to know what will happen. Geelong have never defeated Sydney/SM in a final, and even through their last MCG meeting in a final was in 1934, it's funny how statistics can end up enduring and influencing current events. GWS should win against Western Bulldogs, but if the Bulldogs win, taking the Grand Final could be a bridge too far. However, we said that about them against West Coast, and then Hawthorn, and look what happened. My favourite match-up for the Grand Final would be Sydney v Western Bulldogs.
mattyb
Guest
Sydney should get over Geelong comfortably and the dogs to remain undefeated in interstate Prelims.
Sydneygirl
Guest
Suspect Giants will beat Bulldogs, by probably not much. And of course I'm hoping Sydney beats Geelong.
XI
Roar Guru
Well thanks! It's always nice to be thought of as incredible. ;)
Glenn
Guest
Agreed and I think most people would as well. All of the dscussion that points to a Geelong win is based on Sydney having a shorter break and some injuries to players that aren't critical to their ability to win. If Geelong had played last weekend I suspect that a majority of tipsters would be giving Geelong very little chance. Sydney played a perfect lead in to this game last week and all of the critical players are firing. You don't hear the Swans complaining about a 6 day break for any other reason than they have 1 day less to assess whether the injured players will be available and that is because a 6 day break is more than adequate for fit players to get themselves up for a game with the required energy to run it out. Geelong won't hit this game with the intensity of the Swans and if the Swans get out to a quarter time lead like they did over the Crows and the Cats last time, it is game over - they won't relinquish that lead.
Dave
Guest
Ha. Two teams? Congrats, you've just lost all credibility as an AFL fan.
XI
Roar Guru
Despite the fact that my two teams are still in it, I don't really mind who wins from here. I just hope that the matches are tough and fair and that the GF is more interesting that the last three we've had.
MG
Roar Rookie
Swans have won three of the last four with an average of 64 and this year at Kardinia by 38 but you're tipping the Cats to win. I suspect Tippett will play although he's not been in great form since coming back from injury. McVeigh will probably be replaced by Zac Jones who has been out injured but played well in the NEAFL Grand Final. Rohan is hard to replace but possiblities are Towers or Cunningham who have played AFL this year. Towers is prone to errors but played well in finals last year. Cunningham has not been in good form in the second half of the year. Despite the injuries I think most Swans fans are optimistic about this one probably more so than last weekend.