Saturday Sure Things: Caulfield and Rosehill preview

G’day Roarers! Group l racing in Australia takes place at Caulfield this Saturday with a double header, headlined by the Underwood Stakes (1800m).

The Group 1 Underwood is where Melbournians will get their first taste of Sydney’s Winx/Hartnell form via Lucia Valentina, who is second pick in betting behind Black Heart Bart.

Personally, I think that is wrong. Lucia Valentina should be a clear favourite.

The Queen Elizabeth winner resumed in the Warwick Stakes (1400m) and was doing her best work late when fourth to Winx, with Hartnell in second.

That is the best form reference for any horse in Australia at the moment, so how she was $4.40 all-in betting left me a bit confused. I happily took it, because I think she could well challenge Black Heart Bart for the favourite tag, and he is the horse I am keen to take on here given he is a huge risk at 1800m.

The dry track nonsense with Lucia Valentina is just that – nonsense. Yes she is lengths better with give in the track, but keep in mind she did beat a crack field in the Turnbull on a rock hard Flemington track before, an with better luck, she arguably wins the Caulfield Cup.

The negative is the trial last week, which was sluggish, but I’ll bank on her class.

The big improver is Tavago. He resumed in the Dato Tan Chin Nam and was the horse who copped just about the worst of the interference caused by Awesome Rock. Lost all momentum, but his last 75m and through the line was very good.

He is a live Caulfield Cup chance and he gets the patient hands of Nick Hall aboard. Expect him to get back and produce a ripping Caulfield Cup trial.

The horse that reaches his D-Day is Tarzino. Pulled hard and was in the worst ground last time out in the Makybe Diva, but it was still a pretty weak finish and wasn’t the prep run of a Caulfield Cup winner. This run will tell us if he is a boy or a man.

Blinkers are off, so hopefully that gets him to relax. If he does, he’ll go close. If not, put the pen through him.

But for me I am all over Lucia Valentina, ahead of Tavago, Tarzino and Our Ivanhowe.

The other major on the program is the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m).

I was originally keen on Under The Louvre but as I write this preview, he has come out.

That leaves me with Counterattack on top. He has been a horse that has always been high class but has failed on Grand Final Day and hasn’t ticked the Group l box.

A horror ride from Bowman got him beat first up in the Theo Marks behind stablemate Mackintosh, which followed a couple of outstanding trials. Williams jumps back on, draws well, well weighted, and if he is ever going to win a major, this is his chance.

I think a threat is Tivaci. He resumed in the Bobbie Lewis (1200m) at Flemington and though he was in the fast lane, he worked to the line very strongly behind brilliant winner Faatinah.

Second up last time in he beat home Palentino, and that horse of course beat the best Victoria has to offer in Black Heart Bart, so the form reads well. Draws a lovely gate for Pat Moloney, and I can see him getting a suck run just off the speed.

The knockout horse at a price is Telopea. I thought her run in the Lets Elope (1400m) at Flemington was huge given she was three and four wide throughout in a slowly run race. Had too much to do, so to be only beaten 1.4L was very good. Looked to trial very well at Casterton, going through the motions under a hold. Tumbles down in weight now and she draws to get three wide cover and blend into the race at the right.

Again, I am very keen to take on Xtravagant. I’ve said since his first trial at the start of the Spring that he just didn’t seem himself. Ran accordingly in the Bobbie Lewis, and then the trial on Monday…what was that? I know they want to save the petrol for this, but surely you’d let him cruise to the post rather than pull him right up.

If you look at his NZ form, it does read very poorly. He might look the part, but he is yet to prove it down under.

Going with Counterattack, ahead of Tivaci, Telopea and Bon Aurum.

In the Preludes for the Caulfield and Thousand Guineas, I am quite keen to see how Evacuation measures up to the big boys. The first up win was electric and he has a stack of upside. With the fillies, I am all over Sebring Dream. She wasn’t hard to miss in the Atlantic Jewel (1200m) and she looks a real up and comer.

The race I’ll look at on the Rosehill card is the feature, the Golden Pendant (1400m), where I am buttering up on Denmagic.

Her effort first up in the Sheraco (1200m) was huge, getting back and wide in the run and producing a blistering sectional to only go down narrowly and probably wins in another stride. Again draws awkwardly but she should take good improvement off that and the smaller field will ensure she is closer in the run.

This race is generally won by the class runner, and that bill here fits First Seal. She was a bit hot and cold in the Autumn, just struggling to match it with Winx later in the prep. Been given a good break and the trials/workouts have been impressive. Draws to get the run of the race and she is just so well weighted given her rating. She flies fresh and loves racing at Rosehill. Ticks the boxes.

Nobody would begrudge you if you were still having nightmares after Dixie Blossoms and what occurred in the Sheraco. She had no luck at all in the straight when appearing to have a stack left in the tank. The other negative for her that day was that she was 1200m back from 1300m, which isn’t her go because she does look an out and out miler, so 1400m is perfect and she does draw to be out of trouble this time.

But for me it’s Denmagic, to beat First Seal, Dixie Blossoms and Heavens Above.

Here are my other tips for the other feature races at Rosehill:

Queens Cup: Allergic
Reginald Allen: Smart Amelia
Stan Fox Stakes: Divine Prophet
Gloaming Stakes: Swear
Shannon Stakes: Entirely Platinum

The trial runners fired last weekend once again with Takedown winning the Shorts (1100m) at a price, as well as Chase The Horizon winning the opener at Caulfield. There are more to follow this Friday/Saturday. Here they are down below:

Nordic Empire – Moonee Valley R5
Prompt Response – Moonee Valley R6
What A Hoot – Swan Hill R8
Super Cash – Caulfield R1
Sea Lord – Caulfield R9

Good luck and happy punting!