After tomorrow morning’s clash with the Springboks at Loftus and next week’s meeting with the Pumas at Twickenham, Michael Cheika’s Wallabies will end the calendar year with a golden schedule.
First up the All Blacks then the Grand Slam tour plus France – it doesn’t get any bigger than that.
October 22 – All Blacks at Eden Park.
November 5 – Wales at Millennium.
November 12 – Scotland at Murrayfield.
November 19 – France at Stade de France.
November 26 – Ireland at Aviva
December 3 – England at Twickenham.
But first things first.
The Boks and Pumas games will be the last chance for the out-of-form Wallabies to lift.
Those on the edge of being dropped: skipper Stephen Moore, Allan Ala’alatoa, Dean Mumm, Rob Simmons. Nick Phipps. Bernard Foley, and Tevita Kuridrani.
Moore may yet be saved irrespective with Tatafa Polota-Nau’s broken arm, but that shouldn’t mean an automatic start for the skipper.
David Pocock, Rob Horne, and Ben McCalman are others on the injured list.
Given the Wallabies haven’t won at Eden Park since 1986, and only won one Grand Slam in 1984 when Alan Jones was coach, Cheika has the chance to set new and meaningful benchmarks.
When he took over in November 2014, Cheika had two major goals – having the Wallabies play running rugby like Randwick – Cheika was a Galloping Green – and have depth across the board.
The running rugby is close, the depth a little further away, but in sight.
Judging by the 23 Tests Cheika has selected since he’s been at the helm, only eight are automatic selections for Eden Park:
1 – Scott Sio
2 –
3 – Sekope Kepu
4 –
5 –
6 –
7 – Michael Hooper
8 –
9 – Will Genia
10 –
11 – Reece Hodge
12 –
13 – Samu Kerevi
14 – Dane Haylett-Petty
15 – Israel Folau.
The hooking position will depend on when Polota-Nau returns, but at the moment it’s between Moore, James Hanson, and the new boy on the block, Tolu Latu.
The lock positions are the most intriguing. Is Cheika unsure of his best starting pair, or has he been experimenting?
His track record in selecting locks this is as follows:
England: Simmons and Rory Arnold with James Horwill on the bench.
England: Sam Carter and Arnold – Mumm
England: Will Skelton and Simmons Adam Coleman
All Blacks: Simmons and Kane Douglas – Mumm
All Blacks: Douglas and Coleman – Mumm
Boks: Douglas and Coleman – Arnold
Pumas: Simmons and Coleman – Arnold
Tomorrow: Simmons and Coleman – Douglas
So eight locks have been used with Simmons the most selected with five run-on appearances. He’s followed by Coleman (4 run-on/1 bench), Douglas (3/1), Arnold (2/2), Carter (1/0), Skelton (1/0).Mumm (0/3), and Horwill (0/1).
Somehow I don’t think Simmons and Coleman will be the designated pair once the big six games kick in.
More like Douglas and Coleman, with Arnold on the bench.
Depending on injuries, Scott Fardy should be at six and Sean McMahon eight.
Unless Sefa Naivalu gets a run to prove himself, forcing Hodge to take Foley’s place as inside centre and goal-kicker, the backs will remain pretty constant.
Come what may on the selection table, those big six games will clearly define where Michael Cheika’s Wallabies rank in world rugby.
Robo 1
Roar Rookie
SOS – Mike Harris Where is Mike Harris these days ? The reason why Wallabies are loosing and will keep loosing is that we don’t have a sharp shooter like Steyn in the current team. We had Mike Haris during Deans time but apperantly the Aussie coach and selection thinks his not ausie enough . Pathetic . Look at all the big teams in the world gave a good kicker but the Wallabies management think we can win games with tries only . Yeah good luck with that . We could have won the series with the Lions , England and a few more games had we had Haris there . He was the best sharp shooter we had but there are to many politics in the selection of the team . Can we all urge the selectors and coach to bring Haris back if we are to win any more games .
Jacko
Guest
That is a very worrying schedule. Even the Scotland game is no gimme. 2 wins from 8 games so far for 2016. It could end up 10 losses this season
Jacko
Guest
Foley is NOT a test no 12. Do what the ABs do and give a no 12 a go at the position.
Jacko
Guest
WHAT. So if the fault lies with everybody else other than Cheika how is it that the Wallabies are now 2 wins from 8 games this season. He must really be getting everything right there. Folau scored 17 tries in his first 2 years of rugby under a different coach and has scored 2 tries in the last 2 years , mainly under Cheika. It is Cheika getting it wrong no one else
Kaz
Guest
We lost 18-10 against the Boks...
Joe Blow
Guest
I don't understand why you include Allan Ala’alatoa in the list of blokes who are close to being dropped. He has been a revolution since going the 23. He is an absolute beast and looks as though he has been playing test rugby for years. He is the future and only injury has kept him out of the side for the last couple of weeks.
Kaz
Guest
So the only team that plays/played running rugby is/was Randwick? Where do the Galloping Greens stand in terms of Test rugby?
mikeylives
Guest
"Hooper to me is a bench player." - In what universe? Hooper is not a traditional 7?... How many dominant turnover merchant 7s have you seen in tests this year. Has Pocock been setting the world alight with his turnover prowess? Refs have been harsh, penalising 2nd and 3rd man in for hands in the ruck and not supporting weight. Hooper is ALWAYS the one applying kick-chase pressure and harrasing the 10-12 on first phase. He is frequently the first backline tackler in multiphase play. He's also a pest at slowing down and "dirtying" opposition ball. These are all 7 roles. With ball in hand - he is quick, can link and make breaks. He NEVER gives up. To fault him, he lacks the size to make yards in tight and does not take lineouts, although these aren't "traditional" 7 roles. Opposition can reduce his impact by multiple players targeting him in rucks and holding onto him after the ball has been cleared. What does he need to do to 'earn' his starting place?
What!
Guest
Foley is there to balance the backline. Thats the only reason hes there so I dont understand why you would make the argument that hes there for any other reason. I like the idea of Hodge at 12, Kerevi at 13 and Folau at 14. With Beale at 15 that would be perfect. Without Beale its a solid backline but a little lacking in experience and ball playing skills. You all seem to act as if its obvious and Cheika doesnt understand but its pretty obvious that the fault lies with you guys who cant understand the difficulty in selections that Cheika faces now.
What!
Guest
McKenzie got sacked from the Tahs and from Stade. He quit the Wallabies after what can only be described as a horrible era in which the team underperformed and the unity within the team and its staff fell apart. So the only time McKenzie has succeeded as a head coach was at the Reds and I have no doubt whatsoever that the Reds are your team. Each to there own but if you are picking a dream coaching team you usually pick coaches near the top of the game, not just former coaches of your club that you like for that reason alone.
Rebellion
Guest
I agree that backline with Naivalu at 11 would be the most potent. I'd love to see Folau get a go at 13 but I worry about his defence there against the top sides. My fantasy coaching staff would be Ewan MacKenzie as Head Coach, Laurie Fischer Forwards Coach, Jim Carmichael Attack coach and Eddie Jones as selector/talent scout.
Kashmir Pete
Roar Guru
Agree, even Blind Freddy can see this!
Noodles
Guest
David is great at stating the obvious. Cheika like all recent WB coaches has faced a lack of depth. Right now foley is only test standard 12, at least until hodge gets some experience. Maybe the grand slam will offer that opportunity. We really only have four props and one of them is brand new. So it's a bit silly to be bagging any of them. We don't have many all round hookers and Moore is one. We have three rising locks and two with good past form but not great form right now (in Simmons and Douglas). We have no 8. We have a great 7 injured but have let the next great 7 go overseas. Hooper to me is a bench player. We have one great 9. It is very odd than none of the younger brigade are being trialled. Phipps is out of form HP looks like a fullback although Folau is great at negating the kick recovery game. We are short of wings. Fardy may be out of form but I fail to see how Mumm gets a run. In short I feel sorry for the coach as e is forced to juggle a great deal.
Ozinsa
Guest
What makes you think AA is ripe to be dropped? He's not playing today due to injury but before that his impact off the bench was exactly what we used to get from Sio. He's a keeper and if form were the only criteria for selection then Kepu would be the most likely TH in the spotlight. Phipps and Mumm are predictable targets despite recent good form and no obvious replacements (although I'd live with Fardy over Mumm). Slagging those two off will make you popular here though David. Add Foley and there's an army of anti-NSW drones who will drive clicks over 100. Cheika is ready to give a debut to a tenth Wallaby today and he still gets beaten up for being too stuck on his Tah favourites. The narrative remains but the story simply doesn't stack up any more. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Mike the Oz
Guest
You're too much, David. Alan Alaalatoa facing the axe. New guy, youth, gaining experience, doing quite well but not a waratah. But if that same rule was applied to your guy Kellaway, if he gets a chance and isnt the automatic complete package, youll be screaming for Cheika to show some faith in youth. The last article of yours I will read. It's all click bait. Zzzzzz
Timbo (L)
Guest
I think Cheik is the only person in Australia that can't see this.
Timbo (L)
Guest
David, I understand that the list is accurate from Cheika's perspective but Cheika doesn't make much sense to me Sio keeps getting monstered by experienced props and has so many yellow cards he can play Uno with them.. Hooper is the source of the back row imbalance, he needs to be able do all the #7 duties or get out of the way for one that can. Folau is out of Form and not a full service fullback. Call me paranoid but t feels like some guys are in the team just because they are high profile and good for selling Merchandise and Foxtel subscriptions. I like your analysis of the Hooker and Lock positions. I think Coleman has cemented his spot in the side now, you could add him to the list. I also think it is a good idea to rest your big men. Coleman, Simmons, Arnold and Douglas rotating through the side would keep them all sharp but allow for a longer recovery between games. These big guys are shouldering a lot of the burden in the forwards, Coleman's face bears tribute to this.
Steve T
Guest
I like that backline.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
I'd keep Hodge on the wing for the moment, a Kerevi / Izzy Centre pairing outside Cooper would be great to see although it doesn't appear it's going to happen. Come on Wallas, have a good crack tonight.
Michael
Roar Rookie
Douglas and Coleman is a weaker line out combo, that probably requires Mumm at number 6 to compensate, given we are still playing two number 7s in Hooper and McMahon. I'd rather see Simmons and Coleman with Fardy at 6. No doubt Cooper will be 10. I think everyone in the country except the coach realises that Foley should be out of the starting lineup (or the entire team) to improve the balance of the backline. Give Cooper some big runners, not a small ball player getting in the way. Hodge to 12. Folau to 14. DHP to 15. Imo.