We are right in the thick of the spring carnival now, with racing getting clear air away from the AFL and NRL footy codes for the first time.
Caulfield Guineas day is one of the high points of the spring, with four Group 1’s to be staged, complemented by the last Group 1 of the Sydney carnival.
We’ll look at both the Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas tomorrow, while today we can run our eyes over the Caulfield Stakes, Toorak Handicap and Spring Champion.
The Caulfield Stakes is the headline act, firstly due to the presence of Winx, but also because it has only assembled a field of three.
This is due to connections being much more conservative these days, and unwilling to take on an established champion, but also the fact that there is still very much a dearth of quality middle distance weight-for-age (WFA) gallopers in Australia.
There must also be a definitive link to so many of our Group 1 winning two- and three-year-olds being retired to stud so early, never allowed to develop into WFA horses.
But onto the Caulfield Stakes itself, with Winx, Black Heart Bart and He or She.
Neither Winx nor He or She have ever led a race outright, while Black Heart Bart has done so from time to time across his career, and has shown that he can race forward more than the others. No tactics would surprise here, but it is likely that Black Heart Bart will control the race.
He has two Group 1 WFA victories already this prep, saluting in the Memsie and Underwood, with the second in the Makybe Diva Stakes in between. Under the care of Darren Weir he has had seven Group 1 runs for three wins and four seconds. He has become a true marvel.
As good as Black Heart Bart has proven to be, Winx is another level up.
Winx has now won 11 races in a row, with seven of those being at Group 1 level. The form behind her this prep couldn’t be any more franked either.
Hartnell ran second behind her in the Warwick Stakes, and has since peeled off three stunning victories in a row, so much that people are asking which horse should be favourite over her in the Cox Plate.
Winx won the George Main last start, beating out Hauraki and It’s Somewhat. The former won the Epsom last week, while the latter took out the Craven Plate, both in impressive style.
Winx will sit where she likes and the question remains of whether she will win as she likes. Hauraki made her beat him last time out, and Black Heart Bart may well do the same.
He or She is coming in off two Group 1 WFA placings, running third in the Makybe Diva Stakes and second in the Underwood, both times finishing a couple of lengths behind Black Heart Bart which establishes his level.
He’s never tackled 2000m before either, which is another little query on him, but he’ll add another Group 1 placing to his resume!
Selections: 1. Winx 2. Black Heart Bart 3. He or She
The Toorak Handicap has a long and storied history, and this year sees what looks like a high quality edition, with plenty of varying formlines for punters to assess.
He’s Our Rokkii holds favouritism off the back of four wins in a row – two at Group 3 level in the Sydney autumn, and two open handicaps at Caulfield this prep.
His win last start, by a widening three lengths, was both effortless and dominant, and spoke of a talent that could be a serious Group 1 contender. He should be sitting in the third pair from barrier one, and will take some holding out if he gets the split at the right time.
Bon Aurum holds a prominent place in the market, as the winner of the Rupert Clarke often does in this race, given it is a traditional lead-up.
He won that race well, beating some good horses, but rises four kilograms into this event and is suspect at 1600m. He looks a risk at the price, and it would be a surprise to see him in the finish.
Thames Court was just over a length behind Bon Aurum, should have finished closer if her run wasn’t taken by another horse, and now meets that winner far better at the weights.
She’s proven at the mile, was already looking for this distance last start, is a mare racing in great heart, and has drawn perfectly to have a controlling interest in the race. She looks a bright each-way play at handy double figure odds.
Counterattack and Tivaci also come out of the Rupert Clarke, finishing about a length and a half behind Thames Court, and you couldn’t back either to turn the tables on her. Tivaci is the better credentialled of the two to have an impact.
A number of horses are coming into the Toorak from WFA level.
Awesome Rock won the Dato Tan Chin Nam two starts back, beating Real Love who we saw come out and brain a handy field at Moonee Valley last Friday night. He ran well in the Underwood Stakes too, and was first across the line in the Australia Cup last year, so he is one of the hardest to beat even with 58kgs.
Tosen Stardom hasn’t been seen since the Dato, where he flashed home after being held up and should have finished a lot closer to Awesome Rock. If he’s improved as he should have off that run, then he’s a serious player.
Jacquinot Bay has been a bit of a surprise packet in the spring so far, with the nine-year-old running fourth in both the Makybe Diva Stakes and Underwood Stakes, beating home some very good horses.
He drops down to 55kgs from carrying 59 in those events, where he finished about three lengths from Black Heart Bart both times, and if he brings that form again he’ll be in the finish. He’s outrageous odds at around the $26 mark.
Royal Rapture is another horse at double figure odds whose odds should be shorter. He brings in similar formlines to the favourite He’s Our Rokkii, given he has also put together a string of wins and is coming off strong open handicap wins, where he’s been carrying weight.
Two back he beat Tally, who ran a superb third in the Turnbull Stakes last Sunday, and he will get the run of the race from barrier five. He’s a huge chance.
Miss Rose De Lago won the Lawrence Stakes first-up, flopped in the Dato, but then found her form again with a third in the Stocks Stakes behind Don’t Doubt Mamma, who is providing the right form in mares grade. Miss Rose De Lago can win with a soft run up front, where she’ll likely cross to from a wide draw.
Sydney form must always be respected in the Melbourne spring, which brings Moral Victory and Cosmic Cube into play from the Shannon Stakes, but it’s hard to see either winning. Great Esteem is tough and hardy, and will lead the field along, but doesn’t have the quality to hold out strong opposition.
The race should be run at a better than even tempo, with a number of horses jockeying for box seat positions behind Great Esteem and Miss Rose De Lago. The best ride and best tactics from the right draw may end up winning the race.
Selections: 1. Thames Court 2. Jacquinot Bay 3. Royal Rapture 4. He’s Our Rokkii
The Spring Champion is a race that can sometimes produce a horse to have an impact beyond his three-year-old year, but is more often than not won by something that never does anything again.
Yankee Rose is favourite, as she attempts to be the first filly to win this race. She has been the subject of much speculation and debate given her awkward preparation so far, coupled with the talent she showed in the autumn.
She ran on well from last in the Flight Stakes last week, but couldn’t reel in the leader that controlled the race. Trainer David Vandyke was not perturbed and still has the Cox Plate on the agenda, but she needs to be winning this to go there. Hopefully she does, because the Cox Plate is always that bit more exciting when there’s a three-year-old filly in the race.
The Gloaming Stakes is always the key lead-up to the Spring Champion, and the first seven home from that race, where a blanket covered them, are all here.
The odds discrepancy between them all is surprising, and while you can make a case for any of them, and maybe it’s a lottery, the horse I want to be with out of the Gloaming is Retaliation, so will gladly have something on him at $26.
Retaliation took off early and wide in the Gloaming, doing more work around the long home turn than any runner, and was still there to be beaten at the line. Bred so that 2000m shouldn’t be a problem, if he can get a cosier run into the straight, he will contend.
Selections: 1. Yankee Rose 2. Retaliation 3. Veladoro 4. Swear
Don’t forget to come back tomorrow for our Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas previews!
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Great stuff Andrew & Cam! Have a happy anniversary Andrew.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Great reading as always Andrew. I don't mind Cinnamon Carter in the Pinker Pinker. Ready for 2000m now and I like the drop in weight/rise in distance combo. Selenia's a good little horse, I was always prepared to forgive her straight run, it was much better than it looked. She should never have been anywhere near that price on the Friday night. Sheidel looks a good thing for the reasons outlined. I make 6-8 legitimate chances in the Schillaci. Tough to split them. Couldn't agree more on Star Turn - I'd like to know what odds he'd be if Extreme Choice had run 3rd.
andrew
Guest
Cran 7 - Ive been with powerdworks all prep and she is coming good, and once the weir stayers hit form, the often string a rung together. I wont be able to watch this race though, as Friday marks 10yrs wedding anniversy. How time flies, I cant believe its been 10yrs on Friday since divine Madonna let rip in her first group win in melb over 1400m at $9. Caul 1 – no firm view. 6 or 10 in a small play. 6 cos Williams was engaged by Monday on this runner which is good lead. 10 cos its got good draw and trainer good record in 2yo races in spring and mares decent record in this race. 2 – fascinating race. plenty of form has been done as there is lots of exposed form to work with. Big memory, assign, pemberly narrowed it down to. Cant see prince winning with 60kgs conceding 7kgs to field. bit against howard also at the price on offer, im not sure the depth of form in the craigleee/underwood is very strong, some well beaten runners in those races have flopped when down in class, and tally easily jumped to that class from the lower juncture of form last week. dandy gent best runs are non-winning ones, master zephyr clearly has best form at MV and their cup is in 2 weeks. big memory beat several key rivals here 1st up behind royal rapture and tally which is super form ref. but what to make of 2nd up flop. A bit circumstancial perhaps, but would have liked to see him hit line better. he is the type of horse who can cope with 2400m 3rd up. won this race 2ys ago (beating signoff and protectionist). Interestingly when winning in 2014, he was also 3rd up and of an identical 1st up run in the flem 1700m race and then a flat 2nd up run…….he is a horse who has oft jumped with big weight and I think he is best weighted horse in the race in what is effectively level weights race (if you dismiss prince of penzance). Assign has a claims, but is well found, you are hoping, but rightly expecting, he will improve, he benefits from having had a run at 2400m, but it was a very slow race (2:30 time) and good weight swing from clashes with dandy gent, the form through almandin obviously looks good, but I think this is a tougher race than what he ran in last time and what almandin won. Whilst you can look at aldmanin on one had who beat him, its not super rosy if you look at those behind assign last time either. Suspect he goes harder in front this time now fitter and jockey engagement intent affirms this is likely and stable won it last year with amralah. Winning chance, but well found at $3. Pemberly is the value, a key factor being not only his current winning for, but also a return to his preferred dry track, noting fast time win at flem over 2000m last summer. Still lightly race and progressive type and on the cup so to speak. Important stat (which I doubt you will read elsewhere) is that Stackhouse has been on board 4 times in career and won all 4 times, this has to count for something. I’ll probably take a split big memory and pemberly who are both around $7, which give me a $3.50 net return, with 2 of the 3 key runners in the race covered. 3 – no firm view. All form intertwined from both some recent 3yo races in melb and last autumn as 2yo. The MV form race is very messy given lots of interference and two $40 shots ran the quin. Several runners 1st from 2yo season, some of maiden wins. I will just revert to the snowden at Caulfield theory which has been very profitable and have a small play my country whose form is as comparable as any of these, noting stable did win race last year. 4 – chetwood one of the better bets on the card. Hoping he drifts to north of $3. A bit of speed his inside, but doesn’t have to lead and is quick from the machine and can easily find a spot in first 3 one off rail by top bend. From there, I think he will be too good, for what is moderate lot (bar 1 or 2) and keep going strong at one fast pace all the way to the line. improving with each run, the curve is up, and it will keep going. Well handled by a stable who like to get them running at 2 and 3yrs, so must show them a bit. Stable won similar race last year at caul 1400 carnival with similar in form onpacer in vashka. The form from his wins this prep and last pre are stacking up too strong for this field. superbly bred from super family on dam side and he can continue the winning run. 5 – pretty hard to tip against sheidel who gave a very good male 2kgs last time and ran clear 2nd when I don’t think suited leading either. First up run just as good with those around it competitive in G1 moir. I rate (and its just an opinion) those form lines comfortably superior to that of secret agenda and other recent mares races in melb. Up to 1200m suits, where only defeats have been in G1 races in ADL last prep – and both runs were good enough to win this. clearly best weighted horse in race. perfect draw to sit just off speed and but have clear air to move, mc Donald wont stuff it up. 12 from 22 overall record. Winner at Caul. dry track suits. Won 3rd up last pre (at caul). struggling to find many negatives really. This is of course my trying to be objective and serious noting stokes and snowden both have runners in the race who are good 4yo mares whom I have been on in recent times. But I think the hayes yard take this one out on sat. 6 - 3- 1- 2. If that tri pays more than $1.40 it’s a steal. Just tossing up if I take the 3-1 exacta or the 3-1-2 tri. It’s a bet within a bet, trying to estaimte what will pay better. 7 – im locked in samara dancer from a while back, the barrier is a killer. But I will be having another bet on miss rock who was very good last time and gets weight relief and is a winner at caul. and also foxplay for whom the margin underwhelmed the merit and authority of the win. 8 – very good, as opposed to cracking guineas field. impending just on top for me from sacred elixir. But winning chances to any of the top 6. No doubt this will be won by horse with right run in race, as not a great deal between them on exposed form or via (even) tenuous formlines. Pause the race at 1200m mark, and I’d have a confident bet on the winner. But in the field with a lot who cant win, the first 400m run up the hill to the top bend will be crucial, and luck is a big factor as much as jockey skill and daring. Trying to be a bit more definitive, the reality is impending has beat home both his syd rivals in his last 2 runs and that has to count for something. Its then a matter of lining up that form against the races sacred elixir and hey doc have won. Elixir was 1st up and with the penalty last time, but had a dream run, but could he be a bit dour 2nd up given on derby trial, or is he just elite….(im not sure). Hey doc is obviously under-rated and has won fast run races with much authority in good times (comparable to the night), and travelled well in the run, but comes up with sticky draw. I will be backing impending, but not with a lot of confidence. 9 – tosen stardom and hes our rokii stand out for me here in what shapes as a fast run race. tosen has A grade form and the wide draw and fast tempo suits. Type who can sustain a run, Williams just has to get him out and rolling at the 600m, even if it out wide, he will keep coming. First up run very, very good. and weir was going to run him in WFA against winx in syd until minor injury on float up hume hwy and is off to cox plate after this. weir has good team (ie, bart) to benchmark against. Highweight have done very well in this race in recent times too. rokii has had super prep and cant knock his wining form with big margins conceding weight (to inferior opposition). If the field stays strung out then rokii could even get off the rail at top bend, or he could get a dream run through sitting 4th or 5th as they corner. But, the other scenario is the field jams on the bend and he finds traffic, whilst tosen has momentum up and out wide. this is why I will backing both to win. 10 – im a huckelbuck man from a long time, and 1st up run much better than I expected. Gate 1 suits, and so does a fast run sprint, as it means he gets cover and doesn’t over-race. he can relax on the fast tempo, not coming off the bit, but then still accelerate. Often we see late in the day they fan wider, and the winner comes through on the inside. fell swoop and flamberge go in the quad. Prepared to risk star turn a bit. Seems the spruik is on astern formline and also what extreme choice did as a 3yo at MV. Just cos one 3yo won, doesn’t mean they all win. and this horse was 7l behind extreme choice as a 2yo. You can argue he has improved, but so too has extreme choice. Either way, he meets a very good field of mature/tough/seasoned sprinters and I think he is unders at $3. More a $6-$7 chance. Syd 8 – keen on extensible. Was hophig she would run caul 1400m tristarc next sat, but snowden obv wants to step her up to 1600m. he wins the mares races just about every week in syd, so strong is his hand (extensible, tycoon tara, ravi, denpurr). Cant bet against it. Probably several other snowden runners in the other races for a viewing interest. ADL 7- strong push with reasons given for silvera last time when showed good stamine apply again. Tougher race, but can only relish the rise up to 1800m. interesting to see if he can sit a bit closer this time from good draw. Bris 5 – alpen rose got beat by smart horse last time in track record time, and suited up to 1200m and ideally drawn and $15 seems a good price. 6 – keen bidii babe last time and it got up first up, making it 3 on the trot, not much harder here and can go on with it. 9 – good race. with many recent sat winners clashing. But think privlaka is the one, will be suited by fast tempo from monsieur Gustavo, he can mow him down last 100m. well weighted relative to ratings under the ‘class 6’ system, he was the horse who broke the track record 1st up, proving he is not just a wet tracker. Wins this and comes to melb for sure. 4l of takedown and counterattack last prep, is good enough to win what is effectively a BM80 in bris on sat from ideal draw (speed horse one outside him) given its first up run. Best: Chetwood, Shiedel, Extensible, Privlaka
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Its comical to see a 3 horse field in the Caulfield Stakes. You think more runners would have accepted. Its a $600k race so 4th place money is probably going to be around the $30k vicinity. You could run a Shetland Pony in the race as the fourth horse and it would be guaranteed at least $30k in prize money.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I agree that it's a cracking Toorak Raz, and your points are all sound. Winning hopes to over half the field for mine.
Razzar
Guest
Good speed in this great edition of the Toorak hcp Cam. Big spread of chances here,, need to drill down and find the best chances that could represent value. Awesome Rock with top wght deserves that billing,, back to the mile,, this well above average galloper,, will barely notice his 58kgs. It's more about nailing him on the right day. With clear air he's an enormous chance. $6 Rating He's Our Rokki is smashing it out of the park,,, terms like just wins come to mind... Well he probably does,, the fence sit could pose some issues,,,but with good speed on, gaps should appear. $3.25 chance Miss Rose De Lago may work a little to be up on pace, but her back up after being run down by Dont Doubt Mama, when rail at Valley was in the 'true' made her a sitting duck.. Gives some credence to her chances here. $12 rating Thames Court is set to possie very nicely, good cover likely,, nice lightweight in form Mare. $10 rating Good luck punters.