NBA season preview Part 4: The Western playoff fringe

Just call this group the Dallas Division.

Since winning the title in 2011, the Mavericks have finished between sixth and tenth in the West the past five seasons, with four playoff appearances and a 5-16 record once they’ve made it that far.

They’re respectable enough to always be in the playoff mix, and mediocre enough to make sure that any noise they make in late April is nothing more than a whimper.

That’s a reality they share with the other four teams previewed today.

The ceilings, basements, age profiles and identities of each squad vary significantly, but one thing holds true for all of them: they’re probably just good enough to make it to the postseason dance, but if they get there they’re going to be balling with sprained ankles.

We start, inevitably, in Dallas.

10. Dallas Mavericks
Last season: 42-40, sixth in the West
Predicted record: 40-42

Out in Texas, Dirk Nowitzki is doing an admirable job of adding ‘German longevity’ to the ageless trope of ‘German efficiency’. Entering Year 19 in the league, Nowitzki’s generational skills and the gravity that he commands are powerful enough in themselves to almost ensure a capable team-wide offence. But his 39-year-old body, timeless and savvy on offence, is plodding and constantly exploited on defence.

This past off-season, Dallas sought to find players to make up for their fading star’s deficiencies. Harrison Barnes gives them a youth and versatility on the wing that they’ve lacked ever since Josh Howard was good, and his fellow Warriors exile Andrew Bogut gives the Mavericks a rim protector that Zaza Pachulia wasn’t last year.

Add in a reinvigorated Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews another year removed from his Achilles injury, and you have the makings of a respectable starting unit.

Just one problem: who dribbles the ball on this team? Williams is an old 32 and hasn’t been someone who penetrates the defence for years. Matthews might not have the athleticism anymore to attack the rim – he certainly couldn’t last year – and every time Barnes puts the ball on the floor young children in Oakland weep.

The Mavericks are lacking in quality depth and if Nowitzki goes down or starts acting his age they’re screwed. Rick Carlisle is an elite coach, and the Carlise/Nowitzki supreme competence combination should ensure that Dallas stays in the playoff mix all season long. But beyond that, with the lack of playmaking, the significant health questions surrounding 60 per cent of their starting line-up, and a dearth of bench reinforcements if players go down, the outlook is dim in Dallas.

9. Memphis Grizzlies
Last season: 42-40, seventh in the West
Predicted record: 41-41

Don’t believe the hype.

This year the Grizzlies are the league’s ultimate ‘if they can stay healthy’ team. A five-man unit of Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Chandler Parsons, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol looks imposing on paper. But only if that paper was bought in 2014.

This old core isn’t just old – it’s hurting. Conley is coming off a worrying and mysterious achilles injury, Parsons has had a series of serious knee issues and is only just now been cleared for contact, and Gasol broke his foot last year, the most troubling of issues for a big man on the wrong side of 30.

The other problem is that Memphis just wasn’t that good last year, even before they dealt with an injury crisis that by the end of it all was so pervasive it started to border on comical. They finished with the 20th best net rating in the league, the Magic and the Kings either side of them.

If the big names can stay healthy, then Memphis could push for home-court in the first round of the playoffs. Parsons gives the team a dynamism that they’ve always lacked, and Randolph is going to abuse second units off the bench. Gasol is a monster when healthy, one of the handful of best big men in the league, and Conley is a bona fide star.

But it’s all theoretical. And if players start to go down, which history and probability suggest they will, there’s no depth here. The back-up point guard is Wade Baldwin, and Vince Carter, 40 in January and coming off a horrible season, appears to be the first wing off the bench.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Last season: 29-53, 13th in the West
Predicted record: 42-40

Welcome to the future. It’s right now.

In the long-term, the basketball universe’s best hope for toppling the monolith rising in Golden State might be these Timberwolves. We’re still a few years from that being a possibility, but we’re further down the path than some might realise.

Great teams rise faster than you expect. The Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook Thunder era kicked off in earnest by leaping from 23 wins in 2009 to 50 in 2010. The Karl-Anthony Towns-Andrew Wiggins Wolves might not make such a leap, but if they make half that jump then Minnesota will be firmly in the playoff race.

Any positive projection of the Wolves begins with new coach Tom Thibodeau. Thibs is a revolutionary, someone whose defensive philosophies changed the way we conceive of NBA defences. He has his flaws – for eternity, Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler will wake in cold sweats thinking about the insane lengths he pushed their bodies to – but he’s undeniably one of the league’s best coaches. The man won a playoff series with Nate Robinson as his go-to scorer, for Christ’s sake.

The Wolves were woeful on defence last season ranking 28th in the league. Thibodeau will hope to lift that rating into the top half of the league, and in Towns, Wiggins and Ricky Rubio he has the defensive talent to envision such an improvement. Their offence was surprisingly good last season, 12th in the NBA, so if Minnesota can maintain that level of scoring and make a quantum leap on defence, they’ll likely be a playoff team. Depth is a serious issue, but the Wolves have serious talent and the right man to guide it.

7. Oklahoma City Thunder
Last season: Kevin Durant was on their team
Predicted record: 44-38

Get ready for the most interesting first round playoff exit team in a long time.

In our minds, we have an idea of what the Thunder are going to be like. They’re going to be good but not great, and that’s all there really is to it.

But they’re also going to pursue greatness – in every single game – sometimes grasping onto it, other times falling flat on their faces. This is the Russell Westbrook Life.

This season is all about Westbrook. Sure, Steven Adams might be about to become a genuine star, maybe Victor Oladipo becomes unleashed outside of weary Orlando, and maybe Kanter can combine with Adams again to help OKC become one of the most dominant offensive rebounding teams in history. But none of that matters. All that matters is that Russell Westbrook is going to eat.

What kind of numbers are we going to see? Can he match Oscar Robertson’s triple-double across a season? Can he put up a 32-11-10 for an entire freaking year? I don’t know. But I’m going to enjoy it, and so are you. It might not be real basketball but it could be something better. Keep on trying to shake the universe off its axis Russell, don’t ever stop trying.

6. Houston Rockets
Last season: 41-41, eighth in the West
Predicted record: 46-36

Don’t hate them just because you hate them.

The Rockets are not an especially likeable team. It starts with James Harden, no one’s idea of a model franchise player. But despite the showboating, despite the stirring the pot, despite the allergies to defence, he is brilliant, and that brilliance is undeniable.

Prediction: the Rockets will have the second best offence in the league (after you know who). This team is loaded. Mike D’Antoni is going to give Harden the keys to unleash holy hell on teams. With the rim runs of Clint Capela replacing the drudge of Dwight Howard post-ups, this offence is going to be liberated. Harden running pick and roll with a willing big man surrounded by shooters in Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson is a frightening prospect – perhaps the most frightening in the league outside of the Bay Area.

The problem, of course, is that they’re going to give plenty back on defence. This is the most lopsided team in the league. They might finish with the second ranked offence and the second last ranked defence.

Harden is deplorable on D, and free agent additions Gordon and Anderson only accentuate his defensive shortcomings. Capela blocks shots but is too thin to hold up in the post. Barring a revived Ariza and Patrick Beverley, or the belated emergence of K.J. McDaniels as a legitimate NBA rotation player, it’s going to be ugly.

It’s also going to be beautiful, though, and a freed Harden in D’Antoni’s offence is going to run plenty teams out of the gym. Get ready for a diet of 134-128 matches.