This has been a big trade period for Hawthorn’s list management.
Most of the club’s supporters are in shock over its trading policy. Many believe the now traded Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis are still high-quality players who contribute significantly, as evidenced by the duo’s first and second rankings in Hawthorn’s best and fairest award.
Many are concerned draft picks in rounds three and four do not adequately compensate Hawthorn for the loss of the pair.
And finally, some fear that the legacy of the players as one-club champions will be diminished and that Hawthorn’s culture will be negatively impacted.
These are valid points if Hawthorn is judged in the short-term.
Yet, in the long-run, there are many wins in Hawthorn’s aggressive trading policy.
Hawthorn gains an opportunity for other players to finally get a chance for continuity and experience.
To highlight this, let’s compare the careers of Jordan Lewis and Jonathan O’Rourke. After being drafted with pick seven in 2004, Jordan Lewis played 83 games between 2005 and 2008, increasing his average number of disposals from 16.2 in 2005 to 25.1 in 2008, a season culminating in a memorable grand final win against Geelong.
In contrast, after being drafted with pick two in 2012, Jonathan O’Rourke has played 18 games between 2013 and 2016. Since arriving at Hawthorn in the 2014 trade period, he has played only nine games across two seasons. He has increased his average disposals from seven in 2012 to 14.7 in 2016.
While this is a simplistic comparison which assumes Jordan Lewis and Jonathan O’Rourke are of equal ability, it does show the experience gap between the two players.
Experience is critical to a player being able to compete at the highest level. Malcolm Gladwell’s Outliers provides a fulsome discussion on the merits of experience and competing against the best. Under this theory, champions have to be lost in order for new champions to emerge.
Jonathan O’Rourke will only be 23-years-old for the 2017 season.
Notwithstanding the eye-catching headlines, Hawthorn is recycling its list gradually, thereby attempting to remain competitive. Prior to the current trading period, Hawthorn had six players over the age of 30 for the 2017 season.
Much like David Hale and Brian Lake post-2015, this time, Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell have been tapped on the shoulder.
Again, to provide an overly simplistic analysis, in a team of 22 players, it makes sense to have three separate layers of experience. Under this idea, roughly one-third of the team would possess greater experience, having played 200 or more games, one-third would feature the team’s next leaders, having played between 100 and 200 games, and one-third would be made up of younger players.
Going into the 2017 season, Hawthorn is well placed to compete for the top eight.
The Hawks still have experience and leadership in Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne, Josh Gibson, and Jarryd Roughead. They still have their next leaders in Isaac Smith and Cyril Rioli. And they still have young players in Jack Gunston, Liam Shiels, Tom Mitchell, and possibly Jaeger O’Meara.
To remain competitive over a long period with equalisation measures such as the draft in place, a team must excel in other areas, such as list management, managing injuries, training practices, and facilities.
There is little value in following the herd, because in doing this, by definition, a team would win the competition every 17 years if equalisation measures worked perfectly.
Hawthorn’s aggressive trade policy in this light is different, as it contravenes norms surrounding the one-club player idea – and it could potentially be a masterstroke.
Hawthorn arguably may be less competitive in season 2017.
Yet who is to say this won’t be the beginning of a platform for the Hawks to be competing in grand finals by 2020?
By then, fans may once again believe in the happy team at Hawthorn.
BenJarman
Guest
2 best and fairest in 2 Premiership years (in arguably the greatest team of all time) would suggest "Great"
Birdman
Guest
good post Cat. Not surprising that clubs finally put some work into him late in the season restricting his impact in finals particularly. Gibbo's a key player who may be replaced by Heatherley unless they sign a free agency like Jackson Trengove at the end of 2017.
Birdman
Guest
This trade season was about 2018 as much as 2017. The only way it could have been better was if Lewis had accepted a swap to the Suns for O,Meara and Sam Mitchell had stayed for another year. Still, we Hawks fans are already spoilt so that would have been too much to expect.
Bruce
Guest
He doesn't Impact games....he really doesn't. I can't remember a single Gibson highlight.
Cat
Roar Guru
Then why doesn't every team have one impacting the game the way Gibbo has?
Bruce
Guest
I think it will be pretty easy to find someone who can punch the ball or kick it sideways to someone without an opponent.
Cat
Roar Guru
Whether Gibson is good, very good, average, poor or great is unimportant. What is important has been his role in Hawthorn's side. He has been of critical importance to them. A bit like Hale in that sense. Hawthorn got maximum return on both of them. Hale was not easily replaced and neither will Gibbo be.
Bruce
Guest
Geelong will easily make the finals next year mate....they were better than their PF beat-down. Melbourne are a young, tough team on the up....they could make the finals.
Bruce
Guest
I don't think Gibson is or ever will be "great". You need to do more than be third man up and punch an incoming kick away to be great.
Bruce
Guest
Haha - spot on Slane. Hawks fans are certainly putting the boot into Lewis.
C W
Roar Rookie
I agree...the attempted 4 flags in a row stuffed them up they had to keep the list together to have a crack and it almost .came off...Time to take our medicine and build again ...if anything they should have retired a few more of the older players ..
kavvy
Guest
Rioli - 2016 All Australian, rates higher too
DH
Guest
It's definitely true, plus, of the players you listed, only Gunston and Birchall are under the age of 32. Hawthorn have a problem in the midfield and have traded out their two best midfielders and their fans don't seem to have a problem with it....? They've gone mad with their hubris. Then comes the fall....
Mango Jack
Guest
Agree. The point is, if they had kept them both, they would almost certainly go backwards in 2017, possibly out of the 8, and it would only made the situation more difficult in 12 months time. This plan at least gives them a chance to rebuild and maybe even a shot at the flag next year. They still have an elite forward line and solid defence. Midfield was the key problem area this season.
Mango Jack
Guest
Based on form, I would have preferred Mitchell stay and Hodge go, but I guess clubs can control these things only so much. WC obviously want Mitchell and he wants to start his coaching career there, so that's how it panned out.
Mango Jack
Guest
Isn't that a bit contradictory? FA entrenches the top clubs, yet there are new clubs that will be the preferred destinations?
Mango Jack
Guest
I find that very hard to believe. Maybe a sentimental vote.
Brian
Guest
The Hawks "planning" for lack of a better word was compromised by winning an extra 4th flag and 3rd in a row which meant all the eggs were put into the 2016 basket (Rightly so how often do you get a chance at 4 in a row). Better luck for Roughead and a straighter kick from Smith and who knows. Now the midfield is too old. Hodge & Burgoyne are staying cause both can spend serious time down back. Mitchell & Lewis only play in the middle and so to give O'Rourke, Langford & Lovell a chance they had to be moved
Slane
Guest
Didn't he finish 2nd in the Best and Fairest this year? Would have to think that makes him prwtty close to a top 2 player...
Mango Jack
Guest
Lewis is not even close to their top 2 players now. Mitchell aside, I'd rate Gibson, Gunston, Hodge, Birchall, Burgoyne and maybe a few others ahead of him based on this year's performance.