A couple of years ago I was moved to write about Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore’s performances to win the Cox Plate with Adelaide.
It was a triumph on every sporting level. The Irish trainer got it right with both horse and planning. This was followed by the perfect execution of race tactics by Ryan Moore.
This year’s Cox Plate renewal gave a similar feat by Chris Waller and Hugh Bowman.
Chris Waller’s training performance of the bay mare is on par with any in the world, past or present. Nothing was left to chance, just like O’Brien’s success a couple of years ago.
Everything from her gradual increase in racing intensity, ultimately culminating in her two trips to the Valley for trackwork preceding the Plate.
This is Waller’s time. He often said, “if Winx could win two Plates, then you could call her a champion”. She is a champion.
When your lifetime of professional experience comes together to yield this wonderful result, her victory, even the most modest is allowed to grin like the Cheshire Cat – for a week anyway.
Incidentally, Aidan didn’t have a runner this year, probably thought after last’s year’s demolition of Highland Reel, it would be a wasted effort.
Hugh Bowman probably rode the best big-time race I’ve seen in Australia for an age and some. It was perfect. He made the opposition run to his strengths, and had them busted on the turn. Then he maintained composure in the straight, flicking her twice with the whip making sure she didn’t clock-off and had a quality hit out. Perfect.
After the race, Hugh talked about being aware of the wind danger blowing across the track causing horses on the fence to falter and he made sure Winx wasn’t going to be casualty.
The strength if this year’s Cox Plate was as good as last year’s. Two of the best we have had. Last year, Criterion was returning the same numbers as Hartnell in finishing second and Highland Reel developing into one of Europe’s most competent Group One performers.
Last year, the authority of Winx’s win was questioned by many critics wanting to point to a perceived rails bias and she has doubter’s all along her journey. Many thought that Hartnell was to be her nemesis.
I was always of the opinion, she had nothing to apologise for and her form in last year’s Cox was true and the events of the last twelve months gave me no reason to waver. Only bad luck, a chance of halting her rise to equine immortality. And so it has come to pass.
There is nothing special about saying stuff. It is the doing that counts. Winx, Waller and Bowman have done plenty.
I don’t how the mare’s connections felt in the paddock parade, she looked great but these youngsters can drop their bundle for any reason and a I wanted to see her go on to the course. To see if the claustrophobic, cauldron atmosphere was going to distract or upset her. So she went out, arched her neck and worked off in an easy loping stride, she was all business. Seeing that, you just had to step into the punt again. She wasn’t going to be beat.
And what followed. We are not going to forget that in a hurry.
A few weeks ago, I commented that Winx wasn’t really being given her due on her home turf, even though for the last twelve months she had been rated the world’s best mare and clearly Australia’s best horse by some significant margin.
In her shadow internationally, were females of the highest calibre like Found and Beholder. Generally, she was referred to as ‘probably’ Australia’s best and still had something to prove. At least that is sorted now.
Greg Carpenter, Australia’s member on the International Ranking Advisory Board, suggested that Winx’s 2016 Cox Plate win will take her to the top of the world ratings. That may not be sorted yet. Still some water to pass under the bridge but in two weeks, we should know for certain following the running of the Breeder’s Cup at Santa Anita.
Since the Irish Champion Stakes, I’ve felt Winx was in a precious triumvirate of world equine leaders. These three currently dominate racing and have dutifully partitioned the world.
Who will wear the world’s crown at the end of the year? There are three contenders.
Almanzor (King of Europe)
He is world’s best three-year-old. Emerging quietly out of France to tackle a star-studded Irish Champion Stakes, he came from the tail-end to overpower the quality Ballydoyle mare, Found, a next start Arc de Triomphe winner.
The re-match of the two stars was slated for October 15th in the Ascot Champion Stakes and once again they singled out for a duel only to see Almanzor switch into overdrive during the last 100m and power away. His engine has got some torque and he is going to be a scary competitor next year.
California Chrome (President of North America)
North America’s Champion. With the retirement of firstly, Shared Belief, followed last year, by triple-crown winner American Pharoah departure, California Chrome was gifted the North America’s top slot with several impressive Group One performances this year. In fact, he has hardly been tested in any 2016 contest. Few doubt the champ’s qualities.
He has gears too spare and his variable speed would break just about any horse. If he has a failing, to my eye, it maybe that his peak distance range about 1900m then he begins to taper slightly. This year it hasn’t been a problem, as usually, he has broken the contest at the turn, similar to Winx yesterday.
Winx (Queen of all she surveys)
She is the southern hemisphere’s undisputed champion. Her record is amazing. For nearly 18 months she has laid waste to every Group One horse that had dared to challenge her whether at weight-for-age or handicap. She is dominating beyond description.
Who will be the world’s top horse?
We will know on November fifth. Winx, may likely start in the Emirates MacKinnon and California Chrome is to take on Arrogate’s dazzling speed in the Breeder’s Cup later that night. What a fitting way to end the international racing calendar’s year.
Aransan
Guest
kv, I agree that Winx is entitled to a very high rating but I believe there must still be an element of uncertainty until she runs in one of the world's top races. I can understand the trainer wanting to keep her in Australia but if she was mine I would work out a program in 2017 to test her against the best in Europe and the US. I would then leave her in the northern hemisphere to breed her to one of the world's best stallions in 2018. I accept that she would maximise her prize money by staying in Australia.
kv joef
Roar Guru
What do they do now with Winx's rating now? HIGHLAND REEL destroys one of the strongest Breeder's Cup Turf fields running this year's top US MDst turf horse Flintshire to ground, Arc winner Found back in third, Da Big Hoss etc left in his wake. nearly every international quality race just confirms the AU's mare's unique elite talent.
kv joef
Roar Guru
thx, i'm starting to get the feeling what happens next will determine her IFHA rating. as you said, It is excellent that so many different sources are saying similar stuff. I reckon they go quiet until they see what Hartnell does in the MCup, Yankee Rose in the VRC Oaks, not sure what is happening with Vadamoss and of coarse, mainly, what happens in the BC ... they will release as usual on the 10/11th Nov.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/world-class-winx-is-top-turf-performer-on-the-planet/2181322/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews Looks like all the top rating systems have similar opinions on Winx performance
Sam T
Guest
didn't want to interrupt an interesting conversation. thx for your answer. i take it you meant the handicap policies. i am a small bettor and not a 100% sure i have what it takes i think i am too erractic but the truth might be i really don't know what am doing. what do you mean when you mentioned targeting certain criteria? hope you write a followup article explaining this. i really do want to understand. thx again. enjoyed this conversation.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Aransan, winx is australia's best in the modern era. she can give G1 horses (in G1 time) one second start with 400m to go and beat them. She can jog with them and pressure them into submission as she did last saturday. BC rated 132 officially and i had her on that mark twice and very close to on another couple of occasions. H.Reel rated 121 last year and currently rates 122 ... i too have him there too. Winx beat him 5.5L in track record time with probably close to 1.5L up her sleeve. Next start H.R wins an international G1. Criterion (120) beaten 5L ... whatever way you look at that should have returned a rating of 130+ then ... anyway ... Postponed and Found have really upset the IFHA apple cart. Found's performance swings of arguably 7pts ... one minute 118 ... next ... 123 ... then back to ... pick a number ... but they look like they are going to settle on an average which wrongly may effect Almanzor's season-ender rank - hope not. One of the reason's Arrogate's rating (129) is huge is because in the Traver's he broke 'big red's' 40 year old record, in good fashion mind you ... we will see what happens in the Breeders Cup when he has a 'flashy red' horse that can jog along with him :) . Vain's 1969 MCup week rates as one the great individual performances. i was lucky enough to be involved in racing when it happened and enjoyed every minute of it but still pretty young to appreciate it fully. My apparent anomaly rating CChrome on 135 as opposed to 133 is because his peak range is between 1600-1900m . The IFHA's 133 at 2000m ... i can live with.
Aransan
Guest
kv, how do you rate Winx compared with Black Caviar? What is Highland Reel's rating, of course there is a line there in the 2015 Cox Plate with Winx. Two races stand out in my memory, Secretariats and also Frankel and there were some mighty performances from Vain.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Ah getting KV in long form and more in the comments is a treat. Wonderful. Thanks for the read, fantastic. I thought her win was as remarkable as Frankel's win. Running away from them to completely blow everything away was how he won a few too. I won't get into the ratings battle here but it was a brilliant moment for the sport, delivering on the promise. Hartnell was still second, too!
kv joef
Roar Guru
Frankel raced only in the UK ... See the Stars made one trip to France sharing his time between England and Ireland. Frankel NO but i would like to have seen a WFA with STS over 10f at Newmarket ... it would have been fun. Understand what you have just seen in the Cox ... don't get involved in mythology ... when the numbers are done well they underpin reality. The question is would Winx beat Calfornia Chrome over 10f. Two things ... firstly, my number for CC is 135 and has been for a long time and Winx might just round him up in the last 100m :) . I think the archives of the Roar verify that i was on on CC a long time before he became the best horse in the world. i liked him before the K.Derby when he was still hunting around in cal-breds on the west coast and Johnny will attest to how excited his run-to-roses performance made me. i have never been jingoistic about race-horses - they all come from 4/5 stallions and 130 or so mares --- tribalism is for marketing people not punters. i've said many times here on the roar that my fav. champion bar none (inc. Pharlap) is Secretariat ... racing history is important. you talked about Zenyetta, well she offically rated best at 128 (Rachel Alexandria 127 .... robbed) ... she never rated higher than the French mare Goldikova and 125 is the closest she ever rated to Curlin's 130 ... i'd back Winx to beat Curlin without a second thought and Goldikova for that matter. what happen last saturday at moonee valley happens world-wide a couple of times a decade. Hartnell ran to his mark as did the French horse and Yankee Rose will show the form strong in the Oaks.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Yes I agree 5th or 6th horse can only tell so much in G1's, they are generally ok to compete in G1's but only capable of winning G2's so cannot gauge a winners performance off these horses in general unless a very high class field. I think both Timeform and International ratings don't agree with our assessment of Winxs performance. Racing post ratings are very respectable also so it will be interesting to see their perspective.
Aransan
Guest
kv, I wouldn't quite put Winx level with Sea the Stars or Frankel, but I would put her on a similar level to Black Caviar who could have been the greatest sprinter of all time anywhere. Winx could not have done any more than she has done in Australia. I would prefer to see her race in Europe or the Breeders races in the US, and if she went overseas I would leave her there from a breeding point of view and that is what should have happened with Black Caviar. I enjoy reading your articles.
kv joef
Roar Guru
We might be in for a shock Johnny. It seems the IFHA may try and steal one of horse-racing's best performances from us. I am fkn-ropable. to take this victory away from racing history is abominable and an insult. To suggest a horse, a 9-time G1 winner, isn't capable of this result. A horse that has been undefeated for 18 months - beaten everything at WFA and handicap ... Greg Carpenter, our IFHA board member seems to be suggesting that (opposing his positive opinion that correlates with ours), she 'might' be rated on the same number as California Chrome 133 or close to it (lower). He has said that he believes the real mark is higher ... yes it is (in spades)!!! ... and what i say to the other IFHA board members and our own interstate advisors is NO, NO NO --- her performance is not inferior to anything we have seen since Frankel. CC gets to dance in 10 days and he will do whatever BUT she has done it ... anyway they are yet to release her number so my bluster might be ill-founded ... i mentioned that for the last 3 years or so the IFHA numbers on some horses were illogical and their rating didn't stand-up, proven with following form. Would you believe they are benchmarking from the 5th/6th horse. WTF!!!! Have a look at the Winx race the 5/6th horses NEVER impacted and that is were they think they should start evaluating a race. Quiet tip ... try the 2nd horse. Excluding Carpenter ... if they do give her an inferior number, i will hunt their methodology like Van Helsing hunting the night-crawlers. Seriously, it is like suggesting that See the Stars was lucky as his opposition were having an off-day ... or that Frankel just showed up in a few off years with no quality opposition. Rubbish to that and rubbish to anything other than Winx been given her justful place in racing history. Anyway, let's see what they do?
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Just seen Gary crispe from timeform rating, range between 132-137 with rating of 133P claiming that she's capable of a better rating. Who knows she might never run again, they should have rated at least 135 I believe.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Yes Timeform like to see visually impressive performances, truly run race with a strong pace and recent strong form from the placed horses. All 3 boxes ticked. Just looked at senior handicappers Adam blencowes Twitter account for clues, he did retweet an opinion that Winx is half a pound higher than black caviar. That would suggest 137
kv joef
Roar Guru
Sam T, one person's diamond is another's lump of charcoal - both have some use but one is extremely precious. My advice to you is ... if you are just starting out is to be aware that those you are betting against are v.good on every level. BUT you have a better chance of profiting at horseracing then any other form of gambling. the way to survive on the punt and prosper these days is to specialise - know why you are betting a strategy - keep records and know financially how successful that tactic is ... GOLDEN RULE is, if you can't show a profit at a level stake = you are not going to be a long-term winner ... NEVER ... no staking/progressive/martingale system is going to save your butt long-term.. my strength was that coming from a trade background from a v.early age, i was able to intuitively class horses early (i knew horses) and as a young teenager realising that math was the language of the universe, i decided to set about learning and developing the math that aligned with my appraisals. Nothing special in that, many have followed and lead this direction. These days our racing is clean, healthy and well policed so there are many, many strategies you can adopt - from targeting certain criteria to employing economic investment strategies, using many free and competent paid-for services available. if you punt smart, you may not win long-term but you are not going to hurt yourself irreparably as many gamblers do and you are going to have a lot of fun and who knows, on the odd occasions have a whole lot of extra cash. But your thoughts about learning the how-to's of rating development are sound. In my day there were no official rankings, handicapping was largely made-up and Don Scott/Aurthur Harris set forth what is now a naive ratings strategy but it was the womb giving birth to nearly everything in thoroughbred evaluation you see now. So to start --- first Google ... Australian Horseracing Policies ... read all thoroughly (focus on Vic/NSW) ... download their templates ... NEXT visit the RISA site (http://www.racingaustralia.horse) --- the RISA detailed race form includes the Benchmark Rating given at the time of each of their races. From this you should be able to follow the 'theory' you have just learned about ...
Sam T
Guest
thx for your time but developing the rankings seem complex and are going a bit over my head. i do want to understand the rankings to improve my punting but were would i start? i know it is like asking a magician to tell me how his tricks work but i hope you would point me in an understandable direction. i understand if you choose to decline. thx anyway.
kv joef
Roar Guru
yes johnny, i think you are right. Timeform usually rates 3/5 pts higher than the IFHA. i suppose the only neg to a extreme rating was the average soft ground time but the race pressure was as intense as i have ever seen on an Australian racetrack. Mainly thanks to the French horse and his main competitors who realised they had to get her chasing a long way out if they were to be any hope. well at the turn, 9 of 10 were being touched up to keep going while one was disappearing in front of them and was off over the horizon. We are used to seeing these types of courage tests at the highest level in Europe, the States and Japan but not so much here. They yield results that are definitive with form that stands-up to further testing.
Aransan
Guest
Winx could even be the best progeny of her sire Street Cry although the opposition is pretty formidable: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zenyatta I would back Winx to beat Black Caviar over 7 furlongs (about 1400m) but I would back Vain to beat both of them over that distance, especially as a 3y.o. I don't think anyone expected Winx to win by anywhere near the margin she did against very good opposition. Don't forget Highland Reel ran third last year and ran 2nd in this year's Arc considered by many to be the world's top race.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Potential Timeform rating 137/138 given that vadamos and hartnell are about 123/124. What do you reckon Kv?
kv joef
Roar Guru
thx for the kind words sam. Every dog gets to howl at the moon once a month :) . I think the IFHA may suggest that Winx will rate at 134/135 mainly because so many of the Cox Plate field ran to their rating range, a long-winded way of saying the numbers/projections are reliable. I think Black Caviar's best was 132. I don't have a problem with either horse's evaluation. That 135 number (?) will probably make her the highest rated horse of the modern Australasian era ... about 50 years. The number puts her into a world bracket of a very small band of horses you could count on your fingers and toes and make her one of the greatest females EVER to walk onto a racetrack. A remarkable achievement and a privilege to be alive to see. My ratings closely correlate to the IFHA world rankings. I modified them many years ago to do that because the horseplayer's goal 'is to find error in the official handicap'. My numbers have a reasonable predictive ability (a potential theoretical peak). The IFHA can't do that, they rate what they see ... the past. But racing is about what happens tomorrow, so identifying a horse's class ceiling as early as possible is the foundation of profit. Thing about champs is they keep raising the bar. My numbers go back many decades and are global all based on my own little maxim of ... 'you can't identify a good horse, unless you know what good horses do'. As for the accuracy of the IFHA world numbers. I've had more WTF-probs with the official numbers over the last few years then in the previous 20, mainly with an over-rating of the speed-to-class ratio --- i.e. giving a fast horse a higher rating than his class performance warranted. So IMHO, some high(over)-rated 'fast-ies' were exposed when meeting real class under race pressure. i've commented about many of those cases here on the 'Racing Roar' and over time have been more right than wrong. But mostly, the IFHA numbers hold up, as they did last saturday, and therefore identifying genuine improvers. Maybe after the carnival i will post some web-links that may help you find a way through the rabbit-warren.