While everyone wants to win the Melbourne Cup, punters that can predict the top two, top three, or the top four horses are the biggest winners.
Betting win and place or each way is standard stuff. If you like the Aussie horse, Jameka, she’s about $8 to win and around $3 to place. That means a $10 bet won’t win you much more than $80.
If you want your $10 to go a lot further on a much harder, riskier bet, it’s worth looking the exotic bets.
These include Quinellas (first two horses in any order), Exactas (first two horses in exact order), Trifectas (first three horses) and First Fours (first four horses in any order). Just like on any race, punters pool their money into the giant Melbourne Cup pools and the winners all take a slice of the collected money, minus a cut to the tote. It’s exactly like lotto, but you’re looking at horse form, not just numbers.
If there’s a crazy upset in the race, these pools with millions in them can pay big time.
The NSW dividends on exotics on the 2015 Melbourne Cup, with Prinze of Penzance winning at $101 were:
Quinella – $910.60
Exacta – $2,050.70
Trifecta – $26,045
First Four – $185,975
What does that mean? It means your $10 could’ve earned a slice of $185,975 if you picked the top four. Of course, you don’t have to pick them in exact order. Boxing allows you to pick horses to finish in any order.
The problem is, that means your $10 is spread out among dozens or even hundreds of combinations. Still, 1 per cent of nearly $186k would’ve been a nice pay day!
First a deep breath. It’s very, very hard to win the Melbourne Cup, let along pick an exotic. I’ve only done it a handful of times. That’s because I’ve had trifectas with two horses in the top three, but my other horse finished fourth. Racing can be cruel.
My extensive Melbourne Cup 2016 preview should give you most of what you need to know about the contenders, but you’ll need some luck as well. There’s quite often a surprise horse in the finish because when 24 horses and their jockeys go around a track all sorts of things can happen. Horses get bumped, get stuck behind other horses, don’t jump out of the barrier promptly, and so on.
My opinion of the race is that the speed will be at least normal to fast, but not breakneck.
To me that means we can’t ignore 17 Almandin, 12 Jameka, and 6 Hartnell, but there should be enough for 1 Big Orange, 13 Heartbreak City, and 23 Qewy to be in the finish. I also like Japanese roughie 3 Curren Mirotic as either a horse to run top 3 or finish at the back, so we have to include him in Trifectas and First Fours.
The main issue is that Almandin, Jameka and Hartnell run one-two-three in any order, and the exotics won’t pay much. It’s also very unlikely – something might strike trouble so we have to throw in some rougher horses and hope for a good result.
My numbers for you to consider if you’re down at the tote – and just remember, this isn’t easy!
Quinella/Exacta:
1, 6, 12, 17
Trifecta/First Four:
1, 3, 6, 12, 13, 17, 23
Best of luck and let us know your numbers below.
michael steel
Guest
I guess the point is how much does anyone want , need or can afford to spend on the cup. This years place getters are a much better representation of a Melbourne Cup first four , maybe a bit skinny. But far more realistic than the Prince of penzance scenario. QUEENSLAND TAB Almondin $12.30 win $4.80 place Heartbreak City $6.20 place Hartnell $3.20 place Qewy $6.70 I spent $40. I boxed 8 horses in an exacta ( the six favourites and 2 roughies)which was $28 and put 4.00 a win on Hartnell and Jameka and 1x1 on Wicklow Brave and Excess Knowledge. The exacta paid $228 and I received half of that $114 . I'm happy with that. Anyway lets look at your 7 first four selections. To have them all for $100 would have cost $840 and the return $23.500 But for the once a year punter who spends $40.00 on your premise. $6.00 Exacta for $50% collect 1 6 12 17 Misses out $14 Trifecta for $15% collect 1 3 6 12 13 17 23 wins $15% of $1550 which is $230 $20.00 first four 1 3 6 12 13 17 23 is 2.5% of 23.500 which is $570 So if I spent $40 on your choices in that fashion I'd collect $800. So what's my point. I'd refer that possibility next year. Good picking.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
I'm guessing you would've just about landed it this year mate! Thanks for the tip!
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Welcome Darryn and all. Was a great Cup for Roar readers. I do my best but likely I'll be back next year to show how much of a once off this was ;)
Darryn Howard
Guest
Thanks for the tip which was very good. Would like to get tips on other races as in what you have mentioned for quinella, exacta, trifecta and first four. Thanks
ethan
Guest
Got it dead on mate, hope you cleaned up some exotics!
michael steel
Guest
Yes Tristan as a punter, I encourage all non punters that is my family and most of my friends ( we are a niche group we punters) to spend their money on an exacta. An example I give is that if you box 7 horses for $21.00 you get a 50% collect. I suggest to them just take the first five in the betting and then throw in two roughies which you like. In my case I box about 8 horses for $28 ( like this is my biggest bet of the year) and I've been fortunate enough in the last five years to never leave out Red Cadeaux. Of course last year I missed out because I didn't have the winner. But I've had a good run for 10 years and at worst when the two favourites have run 1-2 I've got my money back. So this year I'm boxing the six favourites and if Our Ivanhoe or Excess Knowledge can run 2nd I'm in for a half decent collect. And don't listen to others, I was talked out of Brew and Viewed to the point where I left them out of my eight so stick to your guns.