Perception is often slow to catch up to reality, but somewhere during the first half of Green Bay’s abominable no-show against the Titans, it finally caught up to the Packers.
Green Bay built up a lot of equity, and cultivated a fearsome respect around the league, by making the playoffs in each of the past seven seasons.
Such respect has been slow to erode, but there’s no way to kick respect to the curb like losing 47-25 to Mike Mularkey.
The revered Packers, the team that won the 2010 Super Bowl, that went 15-1 the following year, and won 71 per cent of games (74-30) under Aaron Rodgers from 2009 to 2015, are now gone – or at least unrecognisable.
In their place is the team has gone 9-12 dating back to the middle of last season. Lambeau Field was once the most terrifying, inevitable trip in the NFL, but over the past two years the Packers have seen three teams with losing records (last year the Bears and Lions, this year the Colts) come away with wins at their vaunted tundra.
The Vikings also beat them there to clinch the division last season, and the Cowboys waxed the floor with the Packers at Lambeau a month ago. The Lambeau mystique is dead, and the Packers mystique is joining it.
Aaron Rodgers is the easiest person to blame, but also one of the most undeserving targets. Even in a down year, Rodgers is the sixth in the league in QBR, with a sterling 22-7 touchdown-interception ratio. He’s not the reason everything has gone to hell.
But he’s also not the dragon breathing hellfire that he once was either. At his peak, Rodgers was the most dangerous downfield thrower in the league, but now he averages a meagre 6.53 yards per attempt, 29th among qualified passers, below the likes of Case Keenum and Brian Hoyer (who statistics generously label as ‘qualified passers’).
The seven interceptions, while hardly offensive, are also high for Rodgers. He hasn’t thrown more than eight interceptions in a season since 2010 – he’s already up to seven this year after just nine games. The manner of the interceptions has been worrying too, the second against Tennessee, a heave to nowhere, especially un-Aaron.
The reality is that Rodgers, about to turn 33, is past his prime. He’s an excellent quarterback now, but no longer a force of nature – no longer a dragon. The occasional breathtaking throw will still be there – like they were against Atlanta a fortnight ago and against Jacksonville in week one – but they’re less consistent. His frozen ropes are melting.
The book on Rodgers’ decline is simple: at his best he’s an improvisational demon, someone whose supreme athleticism compensates for a lack of textbook technique. However, with age catching up to him, a slight dip in athleticism has a significant effect, as he can no longer escape his shortcomings as easily (like occasionally lazy footwork). Rodgers has done little to disprove this hypothesis over the last year.
Still though, Rodgers is an elite quarterback, and unquestionably one with whom you can win a Super Bowl. The problem is everywhere else.
The Packers have no discernible strength. Their offensive line is mediocre and wounded, conceding five sacks against Tennessee’s 26th ranked defence by DVOA. The passing game has failed to distinguish itself, ranking 16th by DVOA, below Chicago and Buffalo, an impossibly low rating for a team with Rodgers at the helm. The rushing attack never had a chance to take flight with the injury to Eddie Lacy.
Defence was supposed to be the backbone of this team, its anchor to complement Rodgers’ canon, but the Packers have been gashed in recent weeks, causing their season to slip away. Green Bay have allowed at least 30 points in four of their past five games – the last time they did that was the year before Alfred Hitchcock’s Rear Window, starring Jimmy Stewart and Grace Kelly, hit cinemas for the first time.
In a crunch game following a dispiriting home loss, the Packers allowed Tennessee to score touchdowns on their first four drives, and five of their first six. The scoring plays were untouched on all but one touchdown.
Defensive coordinator Dom Capers, the man who once made Colin Kaepernick look like something approaching a mix of peak Dan Marino and peak Jesus Christ, must be feeling the seat beneath him starting to simmer.
His boss, Packers coach Mike McCarthy, must also be feeling the heat. McCarthy boldly opened his press conference after losing to Tennessee by proclaiming that he’s a “highly successful NFL coach”. Some would argue that he’s simply been highly successful at having Aaron Rodgers on his team.
The Packers offence has never been especially nuanced, relying instead on the talent of individual superstars to make magic happen. But the talent isn’t what it once was, and the coaching staff needs to give it wider avenues to succeed. So far, they’ve failed to do that.
Green Bay are only 4-5 and one game out of first place in the woeful NFC North. The Vikings are floundering, the Bears are finished, and the Lions are still the Lions. The division remains Green Bay’s for the taking.
But an odd malaise has set in over this team, a strange lifelessness. Rodgers criticised the team’s energy last week, giving credence to the idea that something is distinctly off. It was a savage indictment of his squad, and they didn’t respond.
Good teams don’t give up 75-yard touchdown runs on the first play from scrimmage a week after opening the game by conceding a 99-yard kickoff return. Good teams don’t lose to two AFC South sides in consecutive weeks. With the evidence mounting, and over a year’s worth of mediocrity to point to, we might finally be able to say that the Packers just aren’t a good team.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
The packers have under-performed in recent seasons due to average coaching and average line play. However, their offensive drafting strategy is the cause of their current struggle. They drafted Lacey and he had not performed as expected (has any Alabama RB?). They then expected him to all of a sudden change his work and eating habits, and didn’t bother to go out and replace him. Most importantly, they have never bothered to draft for a single target for Rodgers. Every top team has a big target for their QB – Brady & Gronk, Roethlisberger & Brown, Wilson & Baldwin, Palmer & Fitzgerald, Dalton & Green, Ryan & Jones, even Carr & Cooper. Rodgers has Nelson? Nelson ranks 27th on DYAR and 37th on DVOA. They needed to go out and trade up for a dominating target. The Packers have had 24 years of back-to-back HOF QB’s. They have just 2 Super Bowls to show for it. They have been made to look good by the rest of division sucking. Those 6 games have been 5-6 wins the past decade. Going .500 the remaining 10 games gives you a good chance to have a good position in the playoffs. But when you have Olivia Munn waiting for you at home the mind may not always be on football
Sean Turner
Roar Guru
Wholeheartedly agree with your statements regarding the offense (I have written a comment below with my thoughts on the area). Starks even at his best appeals as nothing more than a stopgap, although he may see reduced time seeing as the Packers have just picked up Christine Michael - provided they give him time to learn the playbook. The five wide sets have been lethal, and are very low risk too. If McCarthy insists on using Nelson as a deep threat on every third down, then at the very least he shouldn't be the primary target. He commands attention, so he'd be a good option for a clear out route that a tackle breaker like Adams or Montgomery can exploit underneath. Even saying this annoys me, there's so much potential here!
Jay Dunbar
Roar Guru
I think in the NFL it is neatly impossible to assemble a complete roster. It's almost like 'pick your poison' - which area of your team are you going to skimp on? Thing is, Packers have a heap of them. There's very little pass rush, the secondary is a mess, and the run game is non existent. As you said (and so did I) a heap of that is on Thompson. One area we don't agree on is Capers. I'm a little higher on him than others- being I don't think he is quite a dumpster fire (and he has a cool name).. Green Bay is one of the best teams in the league against the run, and Clinton-Dix is pretty close to being elite. I think he's doing reasonably with the talent he has available. Montgomery looks to be almost out of the rotation with Starks back. James bloody Starks! I really thought they had something worth persisting with running 5 wide sets and using Cobb and Monty out of the backfield. But you seem to have a far better handle on Green Bay than I do. What are your thoughts?
Sean Turner
Roar Guru
I think Aaron has been partly to blame, in that he seems to be a sensitive person who cannot handle playing on an under performing team. But make no mistake, the Packers woes this year fall squarely on the GM and coaching staff. Thompson's draft and develop strategy has been thoroughly exposed this year with the injuries to key veterans. The team simply has no leadership out on the field. The secondary has been decimated, and quite frankly its no surprise Gunter, Rollins and Randall cant handle being the starting corners, and who could blame them? They're forced to play man coverage on experienced receivers, which doesn't work when the D-Line cannot put pressure on the QB. The pass-rush has been non-existent without Matthews, which again is due to the lack of depth as well as investment in poor players. Capers is a horrible DC, don't get me wrong, but this scenario was bound to happen eventually. That is Thompson's job, and its now in jeopardy because of his unwillingness to look beyond the starters. On Capers, the guy simply has to go. He's had this job for years, and like almost every other DC with a few notable exceptions, he's been figured out. Unlike McDaniels or Graham however, he hasn't adapted. I understand the injury bug has not been kind this year, but when you fail to realise a scheme based on man coverage and a strong pass rush will not work with the poor player personnel you have been given, then you need to go. Its unacceptable. True, Rogers has not been up to par recently, but when you ship 31 points on the first five drives of the game, it doesn't even matter. You're toast. Letting a team's best offensive weapon run 75 yards to paydirt untouched on the first play of the game is beyond bad, it's comedic. The offense is a strange case, which again at least in part owes to the failure of Thompson to construct a functional roster that matches the scheme you are trying to pay. Picking up a running back, giving him two weeks to learn a whole new playbook and a single digit snap count to prove his worth before cutting him is just absurd. There's no way you can successfully evaluate the potential of a player in that time. If you are determined to run the ball on the first few downs, then its an investment that warrants some more time. However, McCarthy's playcalling is also partly to blame. When the Packers are forced to mount a comeback, Rogers looks unstoppable. The five wide WR sets have been lethal, so why aren't they using them more often!? There's no running game to speak of outside Montgomery, who looks far more dangerous out of the slot than he does the backfield, so of course receivers aren't going to get open when there are rarely more than four defenders in the box. Your O-Line looks fantastic because they can double team all day with the lack of blitzing, and the blame then shifts to the QB when he can't convert. Well when you're throwing against nothing nickel defences, i don't blame him. None of this is rocket science, it's football 101 and its a mystery why so my pundits fail to see that.
Sean Turner
Roar Guru
That's a bit selective. The Patriots have gone after some big names in Belichick's tenure and turned them into/back into superstars, as have the Broncos. It's just a matter of coaching and the scheme they're forced to play in. FA has the potential to be good or bad depending on that. Im not sure about Thompson's preferred strategy either. He brought in Charles Woodson one year and he became invaluable, both as a player and veteran who can lead/tutor younger players. The strangest thing with Thompson is that he evidently has a good idea of who to select in the FA, which begs the question of why he fails to do it more often. "Draft and develop" only takes you so far. When your veterans go down - like they have this year - you're ultimately left with inexperienced players in key positions with little guidance. I don't like Capers as a DC, but its Thompson's fault they have no depth.
joe
Guest
They only won 1 SuperBowl during the Favre era as well which was a 15 or so season run. Green Bay has never gone big on free agents.I don't fault them for that.In the NFL spending big on marquee free agents is usually a recipe for disaster. But they haven't drafted well enough.If the draft is your #1 means of talent acquisition you better hit it out of the park every 3 yrs or so.Since the mid 2000's Green Bay hasn't done that. Some good players here & there no doubt.But since Rodgers,Clay Matthews they haven't drafted a bigtime player that other teams have to gameplan against.You need to get one of those difference makers every 2 or 3 years via the draft to keep your roster ahead of the curve.Ted Thompson simply hasn't done that.
joe
Guest
They don't have any game changers on offense, nobody that scares opposing defenses.Packers managemant way overpaid for Randall Cobb & Jordy Nelson a couple of seasons ago.They are good WR's,not great.But they are making somewhere in the $10 million per season range.Its way too much,you can get good WR's anywhere & pay them a whole lot less than that. They have never had an elite TE,they signed Jared Cook in off season he is quite good but has been injured most of the season. They cut a key offensive lineman before the season that didn't help. Bottom line is its a poorly assembled roster.Two WR's making too much.A shaky O-Line.Take Rodgers off the team they win 3 games,maybe? They have back to back road games next & will be underdogs in both. But i wouldn't write them off yet.9 wins could secure the NFC North so its not impossible they get it together & win the division.
Jay Dunbar
Roar Guru
Yeah, that is the generally agreed smart course of action, King. However, that is only true if you draft well. The fact still stands- The Packers have just one Super Bowl to show for Rodgers prime thus far, and he doesn't appear to be the otherworldly talent that can elevate a flawed roster to glory today. That's a failure.
KingCowboy
Guest
In reference to your comments regarding the GM, he likes to build through the draft instead of through Free Agency. Look at the all the teams that have made a "splash" in FA and how they have gone through out the years. An example of two are the Redskins and Dolphins. They go after these glitzy players but they still end at around the 8-8 mark. IMO Thompson has the right idea.
Jay Dunbar
Roar Guru
Hi Jay, excellent assessment. I touched on this briefly in my article, and agree with your summation completely. One thing I did write (that wasn't included in my final article) is that despite his 'decline', 28 other teams would swap QB's with the Packers faster than you can say RELAAAAAX. Green Bay are in danger of wasting the prime of the best quarterback in his generation. 1 Super Bowl from Rodgers prime would be a very disappointing result. GM Ted Thompson hasn't done a lot to bring in fresh talent for this team over the last 5 years, and should be under as much pressure as McCarthy.