Hong Kong International Races: Aussies set for the rich Sprint

To the right hand side on home page where it says search and enter name/horse records. You can contact me on Twitter @BrisburghPhil if you like. Always good to share info with like minded people.

Phil, I use a customised form guide I've set up and the enhanced PDF form guide which are available through the "free form" section. Where is the "horse form database"?

Do you use the horse form database though and the 'profile' tab in particular?

Thanks for that. I use the R&S website myself. I'll make use of youtube in the future.

I use Racing and Sports Form Database for analysis and some video replays. All the Japanese races I found on Youtube. Let me know if you can't find that database. Huge win by Maurice. A pretty disappointing day on the punt for me though I was saved by the Qld Derby winner in the last race @ $13.

A bit of poetic license. Nevertheless a great win by Maurice. What a shame it's being retired when only a 5yo (but that's a discussion for another day). And what a great race meeting. Tell me Brisburgh, where do you find replays, analysis for these overseas horses? Youtube is obviously one of the places. Anuwhere else?

Nice analysis Bigship. I'll just pull you up on that last race though. Maurice is not 10 times better than A Shin Hikarii although he deserves to be favourite. The latter won this race last year and I doubt Maurice would win a race in Europe by 12L! Re Red Falx watch the Sprinters Stakes last start on Youtube. Big Arthur an absolute moral beat not withstanding that was a gutsy win by RF who is 4/4 at the trip. There is hardly any doubt in the word though that had Big Arthur got a run in the straight he would have won the race comfortably.

Hong Kong Vase With form lines out of HK, Japan, Singapore, USA, France and Australia, this is a form analysts nightmare! Nevertheless, we press on. Unlike a lot of the other horses Highland Reel is a genuine G1 performer all over the world. Its last start was the highest rating of any horse in the field by some margin. Its strike rate for WL12M (wins in the last 12 months), distance and the course are better than all the others. It has a world class jockey in Ryan Moore on board. Its racing pattern in up on or near the pace so it should have every chance. Big Orange is coming off an Australian trip and has good strike rates for WL12M and distance. Narrowly beaten in a G2 at Sandown last start, the Australian form should be good enough to see it have some hope. It should lead so they’ll all have to catch it. Nuovo Record comes from Japanese form lines. I know bugger all about those, but is unbeaten at the distance, runs on pace and the Japanese form is supposed to be strong. Highland Reel/Big Orange/Nuovo Record Hong Kong Sprint Lots of horses from all over the traps again! Stacks of chances. Red Falx is coming off a victory at G1 level in Japan. It’s unbeaten in its last 3 starts. On pace runner with great strike rates. The only negative is it is the 1st time away from Japan so it needs to handle travel. The betting might tell the story. If it’s not in the market forget about it. Money knows more than I do about Japanese racing. Lucky Bubbles and Not Listenin’tome fought out the finish of the G2 sprint at Sha Tin 3 weeks ago. Since then Not Listenin’tome has won a 1200m barrier trial. Both have great jockeys in Prebble and Bowman and both have great stats for WL12M, distance and the course (as do a lot of others). Red Falx/Not Listenin’tome/Lucky Bubbles/Peniaphobia/Amazing Kids/Big Arthur Hong Kong Mile Basically it’s HK V Japan form here. It should be noted that all the last start runs for the HK horses was at G2 whilst all the Japanese was at G1. Although Beauty Only can get back a bit in its races there seems enough pace to ensure it can be in the finish. Jockey is Zac Purton who is one of the big 3 in HK. Won at G2 level last start and hasn’t been out of a place this prep. It has had 23 starts at Sha Tin and won ¼ of them, so obviously loves the course. Neorealism’s last start at Kyoto rated very highly comparatively. Ryan Moore on board. It has never won below 1800M, but its last start placing at a mile at G1 level, should see it in the finish here. Satono Aladdin comes out of the same race as Neorealism. It is a 1400-1600 specialist. On the assumption that the Japanese G1 form is a little better than the HK form, I’ll have it for 3rd. Able Friend is the class horse in the race, but it has run twice in the last 12 months. Hasn’t won for 413 days (and that was in a G2 1200m race). I know its course and distance stats are through the roof, but I reckon that at 7 its best days are behind it. Beauty Only/Neorealism/Satono Aladdin Hong Kong Cup Easiest one of the day. Maurice is 10 times better than any other horse in the race. By any analysis it just wins. Assuming a trouble free run it should win by panels. The Winx of the Orient!! Maurice/Queens Ring

Flem 2 – clear quenella with the faves. A classic of example of whereby I think picking the quin will be easier than picking the winner. You will prob get about $2.50 for the quin. Looks safe play. Both dollar for dollar and galaxy raider ran super last start and shape as clearly the two up and coming progressive horses in a modest race where the form is all very exposed and most of them come through BM64 grade races. Galaxy raider worked really hard against the bias last time and just missed in a super run and weight swing his way makes him deserved fave. But dollar for dollar was only first up and can only be better for that run and has serious upside. Its not often mcevoy runs them first up in vic, unless he thinks(knows) they are pretty smart. 3 – khutulun appeals on an ew basis at big odds. Outclassed first up in hot race on cup day, none of these would have done any better (well, they wouldn’t have made the field), stayed at 1400m 2nd up and got back on leader biased track and was more than satisfactory against some handy males. Up in trip, down in class and 3rd up, she can run well here without shocking, despite the ordinary looking digits in her form card. Last prep, her last 2 runs this grade were a win and a 2nd in sat grade BM84 races, just as this is, one against mares, the other the boys. She is the highest rated runner by 8pts in this. mertens has won on her before. I don’t think there are any rising mega-stars down in the weights that will punish her for the extra weight she carries, rather they good/even/handy mares, with ratings in the mid-low 70’s. far worse $20 shots on the day than her. 5 – keen ew on goathland for the Williams stable who have a super record in staying race, esp at flem. Showed significant improvement from 1st up to 2nd up run, and like the quick back up 3rd up and out in trip. Martin rode it well last start and again takes 3kgs off, he will be keen to impress llyod no doubt. Goathlands best form overseas was out to this distance range. Reckon he ran into a smart one last start in gallic chieftain, so no discrace to run 2nd to it. that was BM78 and so is this. this race has a long tail with plenty who simply cannot win. so by default a Williams import who is on an upwards curve this prep, with more to come with fitness and extra distance, with only 9 career starts, has to seriously rated. Charlevioux no doubt main danger, but short enough. It and shikarpour (also in for ADL) ran well last time, but reckon goathland came through a stronger BM78 race personally. Both were given dream rails hugging rides on a bias track. Shikarour a big risk for mine at the distance (weir will prob go ADL anyway). Two horse race, charlevioux and goathland. Gap in price between the two is too substantial. You could take the quin, but id just rather back goathland on an ew basis 7 – the new boy ran really well first in a race of good depth and it was fast run race and he was entitled to wilt late, but he was really game. He of course comes with a lot of convictions, but there is no doubt he is a very consistent horse in the BM80-90 grade over summer, esp at flem and at 1400m. his best runs are also when he is not the hunted, but rather some disprected by rivals. Its those circumstances where get to roll along at his leisure in front and can be hard to run down. Now, don’t get me wrong, im not declaring him. and im thinking mostly just a place bet. But I do think he can find the front and I don’t see a lot of early pressure here, several of these are resuming and like to get back or like to sit off the speed. Tashbeeh, rought justice, majestic duke will go forward, but they will take a sit off the new boy. He will prob get run down, but is a good place bet at $4.4. 8 – keen dodging bullets and is a horse I have spuiked for some time, and now he finally gets in the right race for one to unleash a good bet on him. it’s a perfect race profile for him. his form in his first prep of career was super culimanting in a win this track/trip when he sat outside the lead in a fast run race and won whilst the other on-pacers dropped out. It was that win over azeema and manageress that won me over in fast time, that he was a horse to follow long term. Wasn’t quite right in his 2nd prep, but did bump into some handy horse nonetheless at those 3 runs. His 2nd to spreadeagled reads very well, given speadeagled was in good form at the time (and beat black sheep the week after by bigger margin). Ran much better than one could have possibly expected behind the inform demonstrate 2nd up over a trip too short, bit flat 2nd up with weight, huge run last time when 4 and 5 wide no cover the trip in a leader/rails dominated race (and day) at the bool. Now steps up to 1600m, which he needs now, and strikes a race where meets some decent horses – but no stars – and is at peak fitness, at best distance, and track he has won at. Id be shocked if this race wasn’t a planned race for some time. don’t mind the wide draw at all, in fact, prefer wide draws at flem over 1400-1600m race. I think he comfortably comes across and sits in the first 3, or even leads if they want to, and with 54kgs he can have the good blend of ping at the 400m, but stamina the final 200m and get home. 9- having a split on the two weir horses here in ozi choice and stringer bell who both go to 1400m for first time. ozi has run well all runs since joining weir, he totally lost his action at MV last and the tight track did not suit, he effort from 300m to 100m was awful, but surged again late, implying to me that bigger track and longer trip will suit. Stringer bell has simlar formlines with both tied in via the in form roman fizz, he comes through what I think will be a very strong BM78 (airalign, bassett, armada, a race of very good depth for a BM78 in my opinion), and this is also a BM78. Got beat by act of valour 3 runs back but had no luck at all that day. Just a bit cautious of brown ben who strikes a race of much more depth than those in ADL and drop back to 1400m. def can win, but it’s a low % play as you rise up in class to be type of horse who likes to come from last and circle field to win, looks spectacular when you do, not the type of horse yuou want to gravitate to on the punt as they rise in class, esp at odds on offer. BRIS 5 – biddi babe is one I tip a bit, but she is back to more suitable trip here and thinking wide barrier no dis-adv on wet ground at eagle form (often swooper suited here, esp in wet) 6 – was on Gibraltar girl to win this same race last week before storm meant it abandoned, so have to butter up and go again her for snowden yard 7 – ravi looks a good thing with mcevoy to ride for snowden. Well weighted, well graded, her spring runs were super in race of much more depth than this. looks a good thing with even luck. Wet track no worries. 8 – le-entrecote going very well this prep and running well over the mile consistently in this grade ADL 4 – impulse diavolo has two clear career peak runs, and they were both first up like on sat. strikes a race with good speed, will need luck from inside draw, probably 3 pairs back the rails, but has the ping to take gaps if they come. I am general is a good horse to bet against with his run of 2nds and they will be sure to put pressure on him in the run. 1000m possibly a bit short for impuslve, but look for him bursting through nearer the inside last 100m with the right breaks. 8 – big effort turned in precisely that to score dominant 1st up run sitting 3 and 4 wide no cover the run last time, ambling past the leader and powering away to win very impressively first up. certainly shaped as a win of a horse with atleast 15BM points in the bank to expunge over summer and can go on with it here against a moderate bunch, esp from better draw this time, added fitness. The win was no surprise when you go through his form last prep (pomp, counter pulse, laysayette), that all winning form for a race of this grade. Best: dodging bullets ew, ravi, big effort

Takedown is a chance in a weaker than usual Sprint. Having been in the general admission at Sha Tin, i would have recommended that the owners of Rebel Dane buy a ticket rather than spend a fortune transporting their horse. The Japanese look to have a stranglehold on the Cup but the trick is working out which one will win - no filling up on A Shin Hikari at long odds this year!

TAKEDOWN drawn perfectly KV. Just a bit of loose history on some of these races updated from my post last year; Hong Kong Vase 2400m This is a race where the Northern Hemisphere Europeans have had almost total dominance over the locals. Ironically it took Hong Kong roughie Dominant to end that stranglehold in 2013, coming in with some ‘putrid’ form to upset the more fancied continentals. He returns again this year after a reasonable fourth placed effort in 2014. No HK horse had won in the previous 15 years, and the only non English or French horse to win in that period was the Japanese horse Stay Gold in 2001. He was seven years old, and is the only horse since 1994 to win this race aged above six. This has been an excellent race for runners coming through the Breeders Cup Turf in North America, or the Japan Cup. Between them those 2 races have provided 8 winners. Sprint 1200m This has been an excellent race for the local Sprinters who have won 13 of the last 17 editions. That dominance has been curtailed in 3 of the past 6 years, but it took the superstar Japanese sprinter Lord Kanaloa to do so on on two of those occasions. There are some very interesting barrier stats relative to winners of this race. Eight of the past ten winners have drawn between barriers 5-9, and no horse has won drawn inside 5 since the race reverted to 1200m (before 1999). Peniaphobia came from barrier 14 to win last year leading all the way with a Tongue Tie gear change. 14 of the past 17 winners have been aged either 4 or 5, though local Sprinter Aerovelocity did win this race in 2014 aged 6. No runner aged 7 or over has won in that period, and no three year old has managed to either. Four horses have managed to win this race twice since 1999, quite a revealing statistic. Champions Mile 1600m Of the four big races this is the one that HK gallopers have made their own. They have won 12 of the past 17, and also 8 of the past 9 editions. 4, 5 and 6 year olds have dominated this race winning 20 of the past 24 which is a telling statistic. 14 of the past 25 winners have drawn outside barrier 9 so don’t be afraid to entertain those from wide draws. The form of the past 6 winners coming in has been Eleventh, Second. Eighth, Fourth, First and First, so it can be handy to look for a horse set to peak, as much to one that already has. Cup 2000m This had been a pretty poor race for the local Hong Kong horses with only one winner between the years of 1999-2010. Since then though HK has provided four of the past five winners through California Memory (twice in succession) Akeed Mofeed, and Designs On Rome. Only two Japanese horses have won since 2001 and A Shin Hikari was one of those last year 18 of the past 22 winners have been aged either 4,5 or 6, so best to identify that age group. Interestingly 5 of the last 6 favourites to win have drawn Barrier 6 or wider.

just had a look at the HK-Sprint field - not real strong at all ... in fact one of the weakest i've seen. wonder how well Aerovelocity is going? at peak fitness he'd be a benchmark with Lucky Bubbles ... but really the two AU horses are right in it with the J-horses ok i think Red Falx has strong claims too. just surprised at the lack of depth in the race. a friend of mine likes Takedown and i won't steer him away. he is only 6 points off the top rate and is improving his pressure-speed quickly. the other internationals are excellent quality. the HK-Mile is showing off Able Friend and Sun Jewelery with J-horse Logotype in the mix. the HK-Cup, is a good race. The J-horses seem to have targeted this with Maurice, A Shin Kari and plenty of others and even the French horse has a claim. i've always liked Maurice, a high-class competitor every-time he goes round. on the other hand, A Shin Kari has all the talent you need to be a great, but when sustained pressure goes on he is capable of barking at the moon and ordering a bowl of milk ... so who knows which A Shin Kari will show up. nevertheless, a great race. The HK-Vase is also a nice race with Highland Reel the benchmark but there are a few smokies in the race. See that Pakistan Star is in the last. he looked OK in his 4 runs. probably needs further than 1600m as his breeding and running style indicates. Also Cruz is keeping Chadwick on so maybe he is still educating him. See that this year's QLD derby winner (Eagle Way) is also in the race. Like to see him in the PP to see how forward he is? All in all, a great days racing.

Looking forward to these races once again. Looks pretty straight forward excepting the sprint perhaps. Why Not Listenin' To Me is $13+ is beyond me. Interesting the Japanese horse Red Failx is 4/4 at 1200m and seemingly on the up. Takedown a definite hope I think. Take his form out above 1300m and he is a high class sprinter. Helene Paragon won to watch in the Mile. Absolutely no luck last start. Have to say I was a little disappoined in Able One last start. Okay he lacked fitness, but I was on him, and he had that race at his mercy from a perfect position.

A very special time in the racing calendar and three cheers to the HKJC. The biggest show in town. What an amazing institution not only running racing in Hong Kong but also being the largest public benefactor and the largest tax payer in the country. It must be unique. Importantly the HKJC is clearly held in high regard in political and government circles. The HKJC is all class!

I like the Jockey challenge concept we should do it here come carnival time . Going on recent form Takedown should beat home Rebel Dane although Takedown has been up for a while now . I'll have to watch tonight should be a good card ...