Trend analyses and mathematical relationships are used by business and government to determine or estimate future actives – but the same analyses are instructive when it comes to a plan to grown football in Australia.
Technology and business has a model that states a new technology will struggle to take hold. People very keen and on the outskirts start to take it up, and then movers and shakers who want to appear ahead of the line – as well as people who are into being ‘one of the first’ – start using. Most are cautious and not too sure on spending time or resources on something relatively unknown.
However, a change takes place at about the 15 per cent usage mark, and once the 15 per cent mark is reached usage rises to 85 per cent within seven years. The last 15 per cent can take forever because some people will keep to old ways and in an economic sense cannot change. Some examples are colour TV, FM radio, email and using the web to look things up.
Another mathematical trend is in the study of human behaviour. Human behaviour usually requires a higher standard that 15 per cent to change a general trend – however, once a trend is established it can expand rapidly.
A great example was the way the Rubiks Cube exploded rapidly but then faded even faster. History is full of similar examples: long hair for boys, mini-skirts, sex before marriage et cetera. All these had a slow build and then exploded, with some then fading quickly.
In sport there has been a similar trend over the last, say, 130 years. Pre-1900s to World War I was dominated by boxing and more physical sports. The first modern Olympics in 1896 also introduced a number of sports, mostly individual sports, to a wider audience.
After the first world war individual sports – sports like boxing, tennis, golf or cycling – maintained a huge following. Even snooker was huge.
In the 60s I can recall boxing on TV on Monday night being a must watch.
During the early 60s TV networks starting showing team and national sports – AFL, rugby league and cricket – and by the end of the 60s and into the early 70s team sports had taken over as preferred options. It was a massive change from individual sports.
The We are Football whole of football report released in 2014 detailed that only 18 per cent of the playing base are TV viewers, which compared poorly with the 86-per-cent average of our other major codes.
From my personal experience domestic football was never discussed in the pre-A-League days, with the exception being once every four years during the World Cup. Any other discussion was largely about the EPL and the Champions League.
Post-A-League has seen a rise in football discussion. While 18 per cent is low, it is not too far away from reaching the point of becoming common.
The tipping for this sort of behavioural shift comes at around the 25-per-cent to 28-per-cent mark. This means once between a quarter and a third of people in teams start talking about football, others will do the same – if human behavioural analysis is correct.
If we can reach 25 to 28 per cent – which is no small ask, the difference between 18 per cent and 28 per cent being a 55-per-cent increase – ratings should surge. This is why the next media deal is so important.
Firstly, we need revenue to fund the teams and expand the competition so it does not become stale and, secondly, we need to be on a commercial free-to-air station to help with the growth.
History says once we hit the mythical pre-determined target number, growth explodes – 80 to 85 per cent interest could happen very quickly. With our player number strength, this would be lead to a surge in ratings.
Gallop and the FFA team undertaking the media deal have a great balancing act to perform: enough funds to run the league at a high level and enough reach to help convert the player base to watchers.
Midfielder
Guest
cough cough lol
Lionheart
Guest
nice name, says a lot You can watch both the MLS (US and Canada league) and the Indian Premier League live through Foxtel. In fact, I can't think of a country anywhere that doesn't have a football league or national team. Even war torn Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan have decent national teams. It's the world game.
Lionheart
Guest
good points Steve, and I would agree except I have noticed a change in the past couple of years, seeing more A League jerseys worn by young (& older) fans. I'm an example of a former junior rugby union and rugby league players who's gone the other way, and I'm not alone. The Courier Mail does have a business interest in rugby league, but still their coverage is improving.
Lionheart
Guest
sex before marriage ... had a slow build and then exploded now now Midfielder, you can not use one's own personal experience and extrapolate that to the entire population
I hate pies
Guest
Yeah, well your post makes no sense at all. In "access" of five years?
I hate pies
Guest
Oh, and you're very very defensive about it too. Try and comprehend my words peeps, there's truth to them, rather than playing the man.
punter
Guest
Now I know why you don't eat pies, if totally affects the mind. AFL is not even close to winning in NSW & QLD, how could it be the Australian game, when in 2 of Australia's 3 most populous states, AFL is nowhere near the top sports in those states.
Post_hoc
Guest
wow, started on the christmas cheer a bit early haven't you? Remember beer is more than just a breakfast drink, it can be enjoyed after lunch as well.
Nemesis
Guest
"We’re proud of our football codes, but we’d happily follow soccer during the summer months if it was relatable." I don't want people like you following my sport. I suggest you go put a KFC bucket on your head & get drunk at the BBL
Bondy
Guest
That is the most stupid post I've read at this site ever and I've been here for in access of five years ...
I hate pies
Guest
The problem soccer has with growth in Australia is the attitudes of those who follow it. If you want to grow it you need it to be accessible to Australian culture, not just to (mostly) European immigrants. Two points will help you achieve this: - Call it soccer. I know it's cool to call it football since we made the world cup, but we have our own football codes, and calling it football flies in the face of Australian culture. We're proud of our football codes, but we'd happily follow soccer during the summer months if it was relatable. - Drop the "world game" crap. It's not the world game, it's the Europe and South America game. In fact, 5 of the 6 most populous nations on earth aren't soccer nations. If you can get India and the US on board then it will truly be a world game, but soccer is no where near the top sports in those countries. Make soccer accessible to Australian culture and you will have massive growth, particularly while the A league is played during summer and doesn't clash with the footy seasons.
Jeff milton
Guest
Fuss, he has you in a hole and you cant dig yourself out
Sydneysider
Guest
"In the future it might. But how about not knocking the other codes – realise there is plenty of room for all." Fair point AC, but you might notice that a lot of football posters on this tab actually support other codes eg. rugby league, rugby union (I watch both), some like AFL. I have no interest in AFL though.
Ian
Guest
Well thought reply Bomb. Think about it. Here is one example......tv advertisements showing Chinese, Italians, Americans....all enjoying watching AFL.....to promote the game in Australia they need to show citizens of other countries thinking the game is great. (though they didn't know the game exists) LOLOL ;-) ;-) ;-)
punter
Guest
The NFL may be the wealthiest football competition in the world, but the EPL would be right up there, then La Liga, Serie A & the Bunesliga, the Chinese & the Japanese competitions are also growing. So while American Football has one big competition they drop away after that just like the AFL. The A-league is 100 times bigger then any other Australian Rules competition outside the AFL. I don't think FIFA are losing too much sleep.
j binnie
Guest
Steve - To try and condense your excellent observations into a short phrase is quite easily covered by one word---- "MARKETING". In today's commercial world it is becoming more and more important to be seen by a public that is brought up on 'hero" worship,be that a TV Personality, a Sports Star, a movie star or even a politician (heaven forbid)., and it is in this area football needs to make huge changes. You mention the limited publicity we do get and mention EPL players being used for photographs etc,but I'm sure our kids would rather take to photographs of local HAL players than they do to the endless procession of ex- Socceroos who are filling coaching, or commentary, positions on our greatly reduced ,but nevertheless, valuable space. It is even noticeable on our live TV broadcasts where almost regularly we are given shots of coaches parading up and down their "areas" even when the game is still being played. Do the powers that be really believe the fans who are paying money to watch ,be it live or on TV, are really interested in having these guys being shown or are their kids more likely to want to see a local player ????. I know what I prefer. Keep up the good work .Cheers jb.
steve
Guest
I would suggest its more than likely that the FFA will never solve this issue. There has always been a disconnect with participation numbers and TV watchers and game attendees in Australia. its been that way for donkey's years. Especially with junior players. As they get older their interest declines in football. I wrote a response the other day to an article using my son's team as an example from under 15's. Of the 20 odd kids I coached over three years from under 15's to youth level, who are now all 20 - 21 years old, 1 kid plays NPL in Victoria, 1 kid is playing in college in the USA, 3 of them, my son included, play at various levels in men's competitions in Brisbane, 2 switched to Rugby League, one of which is an NRL contracted player, 1 switched to AFL, the rest no longer play any sport. What I have written pretty much equates to the roughly 18 percent number that you have written about and what is written in the whole of football plan. I don't see it changing anytime soon. I will give you an example of why the A League is where it is in Australia's sporting landscape. Why it isn't really in the minds of more than 18% of peoples. Todays Courier Mail in Brisbane, their sports section runs like this from the back page, 6 pages of Cricket 1 page of Tennis 1 page of AFL article, with 1 smaller article on Surfing 1 page of Rugby League Then we turn the page again before we come to the first soccer article. But do you know what the dominate Soccer article is with the big photo? Its the EPL, nice big photo of Manchester City's Raheem Sterling after scoring. The A league article has a photo about a 1/12 of the size of Manchester City's photo. That's what the FFA is dealing with in Australia. The middle of the off season for AFL and NRL and they are still getting articles placed before soccer which is in season for the A League. My son and all his mates that he grew up playing soccer with, none of them have an interest n the A League, none of them talk about it, none of them attend games. When they talk about football, Its Messi, Ronaldo, Suarez, Neymar, Aguero, Silva etc, not Luke Brattan or Jamie McLaren. When they talk about clubs, they talk Liverpool, United, City, Barcelona, Juventus, Inter etc not Brisbane Roar or Newcastle Jets. Drag yourself to any soccer club sign on days, and I guarantee you will see more young boys and girls wearing EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga kits than A League kits. That's the reality of what the FFA are dealing with in this country. I don't see that 18% figure that you have written about and whats in the whole of football plan changing any time soon. I just don't. You will get that 18% as a constant but I don't see it raising far above that level, maybe a couple of % in the long term, but nothing as significant as your article suggests.
northerner
Guest
I'm looking at the ASC website, or, to be more precise, the spreadsheet for their Investment Plan and it includes activities, organized and/and unorganized for adults, but only organized activities for children. You can't use that as a reliable guideline for what sports kids are actually participating in. The adult participation figures put surfing at about half the participation of football, which is quite a respectable number, only about 20% behind the figures for basketball and cricket.
MarkfromCroydon
Guest
You're on the wrong tab.There is a tab dedicated to AFL. On this tab, when we say Football, we mean Association Football. Not that hard to understand.
Nemesis
Guest
The ASC website has spreadsheets with all the data for kids & adults. And, yes, the numbers playing football & basketball outside clubs is also huge.