There are less than six months to go until the most hotly anticipated rugby tour for many years kicks off in New Zealand.
Lions tours are always a mouth-watering treat in spite of the Lions’ somewhat poor playing record when touring New Zealand, but in 2017 it is possible that the best Lions team ever could be assembled.
England’s resurgence under Eddie Jones and Ireland’s giant-killing feat against the All Blacks last year, mean that Lions supporters actually have reason to hope that their side could mark up their second series win against the All Blacks.
The players being talked about as Lions tourists are in many cases the equal of their New Zealand counterparts.
The Lions should be able to claim parity at least in the front row and depending on referee rulings could possibly claim ascendancy.
In the locks it should be a gigantic struggle. The Lions can claim more depth at lock than the All Blacks and this may be crucial as injuries could play a part.
If Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick are fit for the series then it is likely that the All Blacks will win the locking battle but any other combination could hand the advantage to the Lions.
The loose forward battle should be shaded by the All Blacks. The Lions’ approach is likely to be more bruising while the All Blacks are likely to be pacier. Pace and guile should outflank and overcome brutality.
Halfback is an interesting situation. Should Aaron Smith get his house in order and get back to his best form he will shade any comer from the northern hemisphere, but the Lions should still be well served.
In the inside backs, if Beauden Barrett plays like he did in 2016 he could be the difference between the sides, but goalkicking is likely to favour the Lions.
While inexperience may count against the All Black midfield, their willingness to attack and create chances should put them marginally ahead of whatever midfield lines up against them. Big interest will focus on whether Sonny Bill Williams can make it back to form and if he does, he could be a point of difference.
Wings and fullback should be a clear point of difference where the All Blacks will have an edge. While Northern wings often look good against other teams, they tend to look pedestrian when up against New Zealand.
So, man-for-man the All Blacks should be better than the Lions, but there are many other factors at play which could contribute to the outcome.
The tour schedule is a killer. Before the first Test the Lions will play four Super teams, of which three are likely to be close to full strength with at least some of their All Blacks released.
They also play the Maori All Blacks – essentially a fourth test against what could be close to a New Zealand B team, and the Barbarians side cannot be easily discounted.
But the toughness of the schedule could count in the Lions’ favour. They will have several opportunities to get up to speed with the New Zealand pace and style of play.
They have six opportunities to practise beating top level New Zealand opposition and if they can win those games they will boost their confidence in competing against New Zealand teams.
If the Lions aren’t able to work out a plan to win in New Zealand after that sort of build-up, then they never will.
The Lions will be coming to the end of an arduous season and injury and tiredness could be taking a toll. But they will also be highly motivated by the one-in-twelve-year opportunity to beat the All Blacks, and this motivating factor should negate the tiredness factor.
The All Blacks will be playing their first games of the year together. They are notoriously slow starters in these June internationals. In recent years, England, Wales and France have all come close in at least the first Test of the tour, while Ireland have almost won the second Test.
Home crowd support is usually a factor in a tour, but these days the Lions’ touring support is numerous, fanatical and massively vocal. I was at the third Test in Sydney on the last Lions tour and the sea of red meant it was effectively a home crowd for the Lions.
Australian and New Zealand crowds tend to just sit and watch the game, but Lions supporters actively lift their team with chanting, singing and roaring support.
The stadiums are likely to be at least half full with Lions fans and the supporters advantage could actually tilt in favour of the Lions.
Coaching and gelling could be the big thing that undoes the Lions. While my old school mate Warren Gatland is a fine coach, he has never managed to come up with a game plan and the cattle to beat the All Blacks. This year he may have the cattle, but does he have the game plan?
Can the four nationalities work together cohesively towards the common goal? History says probably not, but history does not always repeat. Gatland has been on enough Lions tours now to have learned how to get them to work together and much will depend on how well he achieves this.
All injuries aside, with two teams well matched, the Lions well practised and the All Blacks potentially bumbling slightly in their first match of the year, the first Test is the Lions’ to lose. The second should probably go the way of the All Blacks and the third could be all on.
Whatever the outcome, it should be the highlight of 2017 and I have moved heaven and earth to be at the first Test with three pommie mates.
Hopefully they will be beating on me at the end as the All Blacks have stormed to victory, but I am expecting, in this game at least, that the Lions will make good on their potential and deliver.
Ngati tumutumu
Guest
LA I see the Lions as a team full of usually great and good rugby playing individuals, but I don't see them as a great team they are somewhat manufactured despite their rich history, I however believe if they get there combinations right they can pose some interesting questions, I think talk on parts of the lions being equal to the AB's is strange when you look at the whole picture as a team to me that reality is alot diffrent, personally I think England and Ireland would pose a bigger threat to the AB's however collectively it makes sence 4 countries should be able to put together a team with equal ability or better compared to a single nation, but these 4 countries have seperate identities to how they see and play rugby, so putting a team together with four diffrent ethos and trying to gel them together to create a great team from great individuals is no easy feat. Comparatively the AB's are a great team full of equally talented players in comparison to the lions team, so it will be an up hill struggle for the Lions imo but not impossible, to me their chance to win the series comes down too combinations. Do the Lions coaching staff have the right team to make the right selections? That to me remains unknown but in my mind a great team will always beat a team of great individuals.
Jacko
Guest
Haha but if he spent a week training under Wayne Smith he could be as big a sensation as his bro
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
Yes good point. I remember that test but had forgotten that that game was Gatland's one Irish test against the All Blacks.
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
DLB? Would that be Daniel Leinert-Brown? He's got pretty nifty footwork and a nice turn of pace, but he's a prop, so probably not in contention for an All Black centre position!
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
Headlines are clickbait and usually don't bear a lot of resemblance to the article. Nor are they usually written by the article author.
Derm
Roar Guru
I don't think anyone has answered the question in headline. My answer is no - they do not deserve to be favourites in any way. Neither do the bookies think so, or any sane rugby fan living on the globe. Next.
Taylorman
Guest
Watched them every year Geoff, as have most AB fans, but not always from a couch, not sure why that's relevant. And every year we go from the heights of the Super rugby, it's high levels of accuracy and execution to an AB side that struggles to get simple combinations working in the first or second test of the year, despite winning. Happened with England, Ireland, Wales at some point last three tours.If not the first test then the second. This isn't about only the result. It's about not having played for several months as a team. The Lions get to play at least three times as a full side before meeting the ABs, I think that's an important difference.
Geoff
Guest
It amazes me that you couch watchers don't spot that the ABs will prepare for a different contest each June. The ABs actually prepare to beat who they are playing in June you know. Picking hypothetical teams from your spank banks aren't relevant. The ABs might look scratchy but they've beaten all comers for years at home. Good luck.....
Snobby Deans
Guest
Lions favourites? A team that comes together every 4 years against a team that have won the last 2 RWC's & lost only 4 games since RWC 2011 & is playing at home They'll be competitive, but to make them favourites is ridiculous
Taylorman
Guest
Yes I think Fekitoa tries too hard and tries to set the world on fire every minute of the game. Everything he does looks overthought, urgent and rushed, like he's making up for lost time, or doing something poor previously. I think he needs to pick and choose his moment better, chill a bit and play a more team based approach, trust others and play to the gameplan. He'll have his moments but just not perhaps so often as he thinks. Crottys Fekitoas opposite, plays the consummate team role, always in support, ensures he does his bit within the gameplan and patiently waits for any individual opportunities. If anything could probably go for things a bit more now he's gained a lot of experience. ALBs a good mix of them both, timing probably his greatest strength. Seems to get into perfect position, makes the perfectly timed pass and has a massive workrate, is everywhere. He's the real first sign of genuinely replacing Conrad Smith.
Rick Page
Guest
Tiredness affected both AB's and WB's at end of season, it'll be the same for NH players, perhaps not crucial but a significant factor against them, especially since the super teams will be up for a scrap. The tight game hasn't worked for years against AB's with any consistency at all. I don't say AB's set piece dominates, they don't get dominated, they expect forwards to front up at set peice and then show ball/running skill all over the park, hence smaller forwards like Coles, who offer so much more overall than typical NH forward. NH don't have the players to beat this particular AB team, which has taken the game to another level of skill and covers all the bases except goal kicker but you're not gonna drop Barrett for a Halfpenny type reliability like Sopoanga because Barrett creates so much more than any other world flyhalf, same with Ben Smith at full back. Yes the AB's wont be beaten.
Rick Page
Guest
Possibly advantage Lions in the first Test, with the AB's usually more rusty first up. If Lions don't win first test the series is over.
Jacko
Guest
I watched ALB for the Chiefs last year and thought "this guy will be something special". No way did I expect it to be last year that he made the ABs but it was clear he was good. I was honestly surprised that Crotty played as well for the ABs as he did and surely the job should be his to lose. However when I was saying Crotty would not be there I was banking on SBW not getting injured and playing straight after the olympics. Moala is a very good player and if he is injury free he could also put pressure on and if Jordie Barrett can show the sort of form he did at the U20WC then he will be something very very special. Maybe not this year but I will watch the Super comp with interest regarding JB. All said the ABs are strong in the centres and whilst Feketoa didnt play his best last year he still shows a lot of promise.
Jacko
Guest
Lindsey said the same in a post above
Boz the Younger
Guest
They still don't have the handling shills to play the game Gatling wants to play, especially the forwards. It is a big disadvantage,
Taylorman
Guest
Good post, Yes had forgotten about that test, and even Gatland coaching Ireland...probably because Id blocked out the Mitchell years.
Taylorman
Guest
Quite simple really, he's started his last six tests so is now the incumbent. Fekitoa was poor last year, too inconsistent. Crotty will play 12 unless things change but on the field ALB was easily the best performed midfielder in 2016. He brought an incredible sense of timing to the backs, a rare gem in today's game. SBW and the new comers will apply pressure on their selections but a test side named now on last form would have Crotty and ALB starting. I'd add Jordie Barret to that list as well. He looks too good to be true from what Ive seen. If he progresses on last years form he'll bolt in. Not sure when we've had a 6'5 centre in the past, and looking at that Canes lineup I think Diggers planning his finals date even now?
Taylorman
Guest
Yes looking at them that's actually true. Many of those matches were against the island teams, Italy etc and I think the perception is we wait seven months to see them play after seeing all the likely ABs in top form from the Super comp only to see them struggle first up in terms of getting combinations right. I think if we went straight into playing SA or Oz first up for the year...we never do...we'd have lost more first ups since 2000. So in that respect I thinkLindsays right. The Lions are easily the best 'first up' side for the year since 2000 and do have the chance to play their full test side at least three times pre first test. Where the ABs don't. I think that will be high on Hansen's list. Good point Lindsay. Adds real possibility to a first test loss, especially if the Lions get on a Chicago type assault and cut down the ABs time and space. The combination of the ABs starting slow and a honed Lions side after three matches is a bad cocktail for the black jersey.
Taylorman
Guest
All Geoff said is they have parity in all areas bar goalkicking, which is true. They are also stronger in most areas. How does that translate to being perfect, or not being injured? It's about a head to head comparison. At a pinch you could say they have a better 9 with Smiths form but all at their best Smith would be ahead. ABs always carry injuries. Last year SBW, NM Skudder, Ngatai were out the whole season, Cruden was out most of it. Super series will guarantee at least one injury that will put a potential starter out, probably two or three. Difference is they cover them better. In some cases the replacement can be better than the former.
Geoff
Guest
Again, strange post. Injuries? Maybe, maybe not. Just because this is a strong Lions team doesnt mean there will be any injuries to the All Backs, there's no way of knowing that so your claims about "en masse" are nonsense and simply projection. Planning for injuries in you opposition is no tactic at all, it's ridiculous. The fact of the matter is that the Lions have only one area where we can assume they will be stronger and that is goal kicking, hence the reason you were pulled up on your comments about disagreement with that thought displaying "an open relationship with the truth"