Why Scotland’s Lions will roar in New Zealand

Since the professional era of rugby union took its first tottering steps in the Northern Hemisphere back in 1995, Scotland has suffered some of the unkindest cuts of all.

In the early years, the national side managed to keep their head above water, even winning the Five Nations tournament back in 1999 – but that proved to be their last hurrah. Since then, all but one of the following seventeen seasons have ended in shipwreck, with Scotland regularly running aground and sinking to the murkiest depths of the final table.

The lack of quality has been reflected in Scotland’s recent representation in the British & Irish Lions parties touring to the Southern Hemisphere. Back in 1997, the familiarity of two Scottish coaches (Ian McGeechan and Jim Telfer) ensured that four Scotland players were picked in the historic Test series against the Springboks – prop Tom Smith, wing Alan Tait and outside-half Gregor Townsend in the crucial first two matches, with back-rower Rob Wainwright making an appearance in the third.

Four years later, only Smith survived in Graham Henry’s Test run-on team against Australia. Since then, it has been a drought. Not one Scotland player has made a Test start for the Lions in the past sixteen years, and over the course of three more tours.

In New Zealand this summer, that may all be about to change. Under the shrewd stewardship of Townsend, the Glasgow Warriors have become the best provincial team ever constructed north of Hadrian’s Wall. In the pool stages of this year’s European Champions Cup, they beat the French Top 14 champions (Dan Carter and all) home and away, and they destroyed Leicester Tigers over two legs by an aggregate score of 85-13.

Townsend will be duly anointed as the next Scotland coach when Vern Cotter leaves for Montpellier in June, and the signs are that he will enjoy a more substantial inheritance than many of his predecessors.

Saturday’s match against joint pre-tournament favourites Ireland, provided both the best spectacle and the best collective performance of the first round, and that was delivered by Scotland.

On the crest of a wave after their Autumn wins over New Zealand and Australia, Ireland did what Ireland do best. They kept the ball, squeezing penalties out of Scotland at the defensive scrum and breakdown and sitting encamped in the Scottish 22 for what felt like an eternity in the second half as the tourniquet of pressure steadily tightened.

Ireland made 227 passes and built an enormous 155 rucks on their way to dominating two-thirds of the territory/possession balance in the game. 67 of those rucks were set between the Scottish 22 and the goal-line, the ‘red zone’. That is the kind of figure you would more commonly expect for total rucks built throughout in all areas of the field.

In an heroic defensive effort, Scotland made 239 tackles. Fifty of those tackles were made by the Gray brothers, Jonny and Richie, from the second row. They added twenty-seven ball-carries and were responsible for 65 per cent of Scotland’s lineout possession, just for good measure.

It was a truly monumental effort from Jonny and Richie Gray, and one which must have catapulted both to the front of a very competitive queue for second row Test spots in New Zealand this summer. Maro Itoje and Alun-Wyn Jones may remain favourites to start the first Test at Eden Park on 24 June for now, but Jonny Gray in particular is breathing right down their neck.

Another ‘live’ Scottish candidate for a starting spot against the All Blacks, naturalised Free State tighthead Willem Nel, is benefiting from not playing due to injury. Neither Welshman Samson Lee nor England’s Dan Cole did themselves many favours in the first round, so it looks like a straight shoot-out between Nel and young Irishman Tadhg Furlong to start on the right side of the Lions scrum in Auckland.

Outside the efforts of the Gray brothers and the known qualities of W.P.Nel, Lions head coach Warren Gatland must have enjoyed the Scottish desire to move and exploit turnover ball from any area of the field on Saturday.

This will be one key to overturning the All Blacks and has become a central pillar of Glasgow’s play, one which has readily translated to the international arena. At the heart of it is the Scotland full-back Stuart Hogg.

Hogg is only 24 years old but he will already have won a half-century of caps for his country when he trots on to the field at Stade de France next Sunday afternoon. A relatively slight figure physically when he first arrived on the international scene, Hogg has added considerable muscle mass to his 5’11 frame.

He now tips the scales at around 100 kgs (15 and a half stones) and has become the prototypical pocket rocket, with real dynamic power to go hand in glove with his speed and acceleration.

Hogg announced his quality with the outstanding individual try of last year’s championship against Saturday’s opponent’s Ireland, starting from kick return.

Ireland have run the ball out towards the right sideline through their backs on the previous play, so they have mostly been ‘used up’. This means that as Conor Murray goes to put up the box-kick at 19:10, it is now his tight forwards who will have to fill the middle of the kick-chase which supports it.

The kick is fatally a little too long, which gives Hogg ample to time to scan the field and identify Ireland’s front row all defending together in that ‘weak middle’ and work up a head of steam before contact. He then cleverly uses the angled run of Tommy Seymour (with the beard) to lever open the space between Rory Best (white hat) and Mike Ross (black hat).

As Best turns his shoulders out on to Seymour, it becomes a one-on-one between Hogg and Ross – as unequal a contest as it’s possible to envisage on a rugby field!

No less impressive than the intelligence of the construction of the break is its clinical finish. Ireland’s scramble in the secondary or backfield layer of defence is usually outstanding, but on this occasion none of the four Irish cover defenders (including their own flyer Keith Earls) can get near enough to lay a hand on Hogg as he powers through for the score. Speed kills, as they rightly say.

Stuart Hogg’s performance against Ireland on Saturday showcased an even more rounded set of skills.

Danger on the edge
With the possible exception of Wales’ Liam Williams, Hogg is the most dangerous operator among the Home nations in that thinner defensive zone from the 15 metre line outwards to the side-line. Scotland like to keep Hogg as wide as possible, out near the 5 metre line, to accentuate his impact in the ‘joint’ of the defence that typically appears outside the defensive 13 (7:04, 20:35 & 39:09).

In the first clip, Ireland appear to be comfortably set up on defence at 6:58, but when Hogg receives the ball at 7:04 he is still able to create space in a narrow area for the wing outside him, and despite the presence of three Ireland backs in the same zone.

The sequence eventually resulted in Scotland’s first try, with Hogg correctly assessing the chances of an interception by #13 Gary Ringrose to fade out beyond the Ireland centre and complete the score (7:58). At 20:35 his very wide positioning allows him to hit the ‘joint’ between Keith Earls and Rob Kearney on the very best of terms, and Hogg’s acceleration and leg power does the rest.

Kick return impacts
On turnover and kick returns, Hogg forces the defensive chase to respect his speed and react to what he is capable of doing. At 75:05, although three of the four Ireland defenders on chase are backs, they feel unable to attack him aggressively and end up jockeying passively towards the far touch.

This gives Scotland the opportunity to pin Ireland down in ‘coffin corner’ at a critical stage of proceedings, and earns Hogg a second and improved chance to free up Seymour on the outside at 75:28.

Strength and escapability in contact
One of the newer developments in Hogg’s game (associated with the growth of his muscle mass) has been a real strength in all forms of contact. At 15:28 he brushes off the kick chase of Simon Zebo and knocks over his own wing Tommy Seymour while claiming the high ball, at 39:08 Kearney has aligned for a full frontal shot on Hogg’s blind-side, but the Scotland full-back still survives the hit and spins away to set up a front-foot ruck.

At 52:05 he receives a poor pass from Finn Russell but is able to beat Earls and power past Robbie Henshaw to make positive yardage.

The Gray-Hogg connection
Three of Scotland’s best players on the day – Hogg and the Gray brothers – often connect quite directly on attack over two or three phases. The Grays are their heaviest ball-carriers and drive the ball on effectively, Hogg exploits the difficulty in wrapping forwards around a retreating breakdown on the next phase (6:57 & 39:05 after drives by Jonny, 7:55 after a pick by Richie, 20:30 after the initial drive by Josh Strauss).

It’s a nice one-two punch for Vern Cotter (and Warren Gatland?) to have.

Summary
I fully expect at least four Scotland players to be in ‘live’ contention for a Lions’ Test match spot at Eden Park on 24 June – Willem Nel at tight-head prop, the Gray brothers in the second row, and Stuart Hogg at fullback.

It would also not surprise me if a fifth, inside centre Alex Dunbar, joins that elite group as a bolter from the blue before the end of this year’s Six Nations.

Gatland already has a ready-made back three composed of Hogg at 15, Liam Williams at 11 and George North on the right wing provided that all remain fit. Wales’ Jonathan Davies looks to be the front-runner at #13, with either Conor Murray or Ben Youngs at #9.

The main (and perennial) question in the backs will be the composition of the 10-12 axis – Ford/Sexton-Farrell or Farrell/Sexton-Henshaw/Dunbar?…

Up front, Jack McGrath seems to be secure at loose-head with either Nel or Furlong on the other side, while hooker is up for grabs at the time of writing. The competition in the second row will be intense, perhaps the most intense of any position in the Test side.

In the back-row, one natural combination would be Sean O’Brien and Sam Warburton on either side of Billy Vunipola.

Before we ever get to June, let’s hope we can enjoy the Scottish revival on until the very end of the Six Nations, and raise a glass via Lions selection to the comeback ‘from the dead’ of a proud rugby nation. Sláinte!