Group 1 Orr Stakes: Preview and tips

Sydney horses (roughies) working well on the track last couple weeks. 1 Savvy Nature 3 Regal Monarch 7 Captain Duffy 9 Pearls ($5.50) Kembla Grange 5 - Cash Strapped Wyong Sunday 7 - Shoepeg Fife worked extra well on Tuesday morning at Caufield.

Agree.

Great stuff thanks Andrew-loved your Pinker Pinker reference! :)

Hey Cameron, nice preview mate. Just wondering if you've got a good roughie pick for tomorrow at Caulfield or Randwick? Cheers

MV Fri: 6 – crime fighter affirmed the old rule that valley horses continue to run well at the valley last start when very unlucky in a messy finish. Strips fitter and can go one better here at long odds in an open race 7 – fife is a fascintating horse, being a half to fawkner, I don’t miss it. interesting race to resume in. doubt it’s a target race, but you can reasonably expect a more rounded/seasoned horses this prep, and doesn’t strike into any stars in this. the likely good speed helps significantly. 8 – happy to bet against the 2 faves in anatola who is disappointing and the hawkes runner who the market continue to over-rate (outside his legit star horses), so will go with the consistent lady trickster who is in her right grade and comes through some strong form races 2 and 3 runs back. CAUL 1 – nozomi has come up decent value here. firstly, Im a bit aginst the fave hippachrus and here’s why. Last 2 runs since freshen up have been very good, in weaker grade, but still good. but both times he has drawn well and been able to sit close to the speed and covered up and burst through the field with a short and sharp sprint. This ‘sit – sprint’ scenario, in slow run races, really suits him, as his acceleration (in those grades) has been a good asset. But its very different scenario on sat. almost déjà vu in terms of zacorersess in race 1 from last sat. from wide draw, he will go back – as they will want cover, so basically you are thinking he can win in a very different style/scenario, in a higher class race. I cant see him sustaining a long strong run around the field from 600m (and it would be risky to roll forward and hope to slot in). perhaps they ride him for luck and hope gaps emerge, but this is not the scenario you back a horse as fave in. you back for your pinker pinker style runs through when they are at pinker pinker odds. Plus, this wont be slow run race anyway, as our bottino likes to bowl along in front, and will only go harder now 3rd run back from spell. So, who does this all suit. Our bottino is very big chance to lead all the way. But it also suits those who have fitness and can tuck in behind our bottino, and nozomi fits that bill perfectly. He is no star, and he is one paced. But I reckon a fast run 1800m is a good scenario. Don’t worry about wide draw, he has good gate speed, and a decent run until first turn. And nozomi did of course beat hippachrus at flem over carnival and meets it 3.5kgs better for doing so, yet is 3 or 4 times the odds !!. Refulgent is the other one who has a massive chance and with 54kgs from inside draw, fitness and massive weight adv (he carries 60kgs most runs) and a good tough horse has the right formlines via dodging bullets and burning front that say he can win for sure with 54kgs with a soft run 3 pairs back the rails. Nozimo main bet. Saver refulgent. 2 – tricky race with same race fit, but limited class wise, horses taking a few with better credentials that are 1st up or 2nd up. As such, I will default my wager to the class which is the toppy, and adding a good dollop on top for the strike rate of snowden with runners at caul (esp in 2yo and 3yo races). Does have tricky draw. But given I think those with the melb form are all quite even, no point trying to split hairs amongst them, may as well just punt that the horse with the diff formline winds up being superior, and really its first up run was good (surely strips fitter and only 1l of some good open class horses), form prep prior certainly good enough for this grade, and well weighted only 2kgs top to bottom here. no knock peacock, its 2nd pick. 5 – no firm view. 7 come through straight races at flem which has been fraught with danger and turnarounds can reasonably be expected. And then 3 horses who resume from spring first up for good stables and hard to know fitness levels or targets (but from stables who have won this race recently with horses first up) . Jen lyn best horse in race, but not sure 2nd up still at 1200m, or sure enough to back it as fave. strong tempo gives her a chance along with good draw. Being fave on class alone prob fair enough. Still, a couple of maidens got within 1-2 lengths of her. im having a few coins ew on facts at long odds, more so, cos I just can be confident enough about those in the market. Suffice to say, I’d be inclined to follow a strong market lead here if money comes last 10mins. But for now, ew bet on facts who comes from stable who always have a smart 3yo/4yo female in their yard, esp in the autumn time, regularly winning this grade of race, backed heavily on debut, won easily, bobs up here 4 weeks later (with no nom for any other race), stable in form, jockey rode a double at sand on wed. I’ll have an ew dabble. But best of luck to those playing heavy on the market fancies though. 6 – fascinating race. hellbent and chatqua both have obvious negatives and one will be risked in the market as % trims to 110%. Tactics crucial. Does dunn allow hellbent to sit outside and potential create a pocket, or does hellbent drop back for tail of chatque and come around it and try and run it down. I do think one of these 2 will win. the small field and the fact fastnrocking and im a star will be back and/or on the inside, means this duo sit 4th and 5th in the run 1 or 2 off the rails, ideal stalking spot. And I do think they can run past the leaders (super cash, wild rain, el divino). The quinella will probably pay $3 as is one option to approach the race with – the safe and sensible one. But, after much analysis I come up with chataqua on top. If you take out his last 2 runs, a repeat of any of the 15 prior win this. the only speculating factor is whether he is ‘gone’ based on last spring, or was just tired from busy racing program the prep prior. Im prepared to take $2.50 he is not gone. Hellbent yet to be proven this class for mine, way too close in the hcp (3 placings at listed level, unplaced all 3 goes at group level, wins are 4 x BM races, inglis restricted race and an open hcp win on limit weight). Gets 3.5kgs of chatqua who is 5 x G1 winner and 4 x G2 winner. Incomparable really.. hellbent looked good winner here over spring but wasn’t a group race, had limit weight, got 2kgs from shiedel (mare) and time was slow. Im in the chataque camp. And think he is well weighted, relative to WFA, the 3yo’s and mares are really only getting 2-3kgs off him – not enough for mine. Really looking forward to this race to watch how it unfolds. Chataqua to win. 7 – keen malegeurra and he is backable price. Reckon he is very much in the mould of the regal roller, moment of change type horse and the 1400m at caul on a firm track is perfect scenario for him. form since being gelded is sensational. Not worried about the barrier at all, gets you a better price, has very good gate speed, and numerous staying types in this race. turn me loose, ecuadour and miss rose de lago ensure there is some stringing out in the field. confident he finds a spot – and quickly – before the top turn in the first 4. No issue for mine at the 1400m, tragically unlucky in all aged last autumn over 1400m his most recent go and stuck on the inside in Stradbroke when winners near outside fence, and does have 2 wins at 1400m. don’t think bart can turn tables on him from last run and risking him. bart has capitliased well in recent times, but is a limited (yet, high quality) horse, he found some gaps in the calendar I suppose. Barrier tricky for bart as he will be a few lengths back in a jam. Small saver arod as we just don’t know, and imports often can improve 2nd prep and waller has done well 1400m races at caul prior fresh up and gets a cheap run and a fast run race. his best is clearly good enough and seemingly being trained as sprinter/miler this prep given its feature race noms. 8 – strongest edition of this race I can recall. Largely thanks to DK weir. The 4 weir runners and grande rosso go in my quad. But not a lot between them. 4 of these come through barton stks and not a lot between this 4, noting we do have some weight swings. Have to factor in fitness levels and distance rise too. this easily ties in burning front who grande rosso beat but got 3kgs and was fitter at the time. fair bit depends on how strong in front tom melb goes, they might not want to gas him first up, or they might run him hard to get him fit. you just don’t know. very interesting to see which weir runner the money comes for. can make a case for and against all of his runners. And often hard to tell fitness levels for his horses versus who is here to win, noting humidor and real love both 2nd up. burning front obv fully fit, but do think he strikes stronger version of same race than last year, considerably stronger. Ive had a small early bet on Tonopah who seems overs given his last run (accept weight swing against) but still, his 3rd up form is very good and so is his mile form, so perhaps this is his ‘peak target’ race. 9 – widest race of the day for mine. 1, 3, 5, 6, 9, 11, 13 in the quad. 1 and 3 wont be fully wound up, but both ran well fresh in spring (without winning), and you can expect similar here, in similar grade races, they peak 3rd up in the coolmore over 1500m at rosehill. Choose had excuses both its spring runs, but its autumn form in this grade of race puts it right in the mix here and is a 1200m specialist with good fresh form and will sit 2nd or 3rd in the run one of the rail comfy, denpurr has lethal finish and race fitness and much respect for snowden stable travelling down here and is also 1200m and dry track suited. Prussian vixen is under-rated and will lead and is in good form and can measure up for sure on its formlines via amestrelia but also French emotion from last prep, if the class horses are off their game she could pinch it and don’t see her being pressured in front, type of scenario they leave her alone. Amerstrelia is in the mix, but the last one I put in, its competitive but no star and has matched motors with Prussian vixen who gets the weight adv, but wasn’t far off super cash in the spring in similar scenario (super cash first up and same weight diff). could be scr for syd. written era is the roughie with a hope, although poorly weighted, off a huge first up run when motored home with big weight, and is a pretty promising horse yet to run badly. Hopefully, im alive in the quad. Forced for a pecking order id prob risk 1 and 3 as ‘winning’ hopes, and hedge my bets with the race fit horses of Prussian vixen as an on pacer and denpurr as swooper. ADL 2 – big effort was heavily backed last time back to the 1000m and won accordingly and can win again here. this is a tougher race, but he is a promising horse and think they have found the right niche for him keeping to fast run on-speed one-paced 1000m running. 5 – tenere looks very well graded and should be peak fitness now and pretty consistent horse over 1600m, his best trip, esp on dry ground. Thin race that drops away quickly down at its tail to BM70-75 form, and most from older horses who have no scope to progress. Slightly awkward gate to contend with, as he likes to sit midfield, so just needs to slot in rather than go back to last, but a few noted on pacers here should enable tourner to find a gap in 4th-6th spot, and if so, reckon he has this lot covered, given his form so far this prep in stronger grade and/or with bigger weights and/or short of 1600m. 6 – arleigh gets another chance after coming through a very messy race last sat. pretty ordinary ride by tourner basically ramming it into trouble and then ramming it out of trouble causing some interference (not sure how he didn’t get suspended to be honest). Anyway, I was keen last sat in a similar grade race, so happy to plump up one more time, in a situation whereby the form is once again all very much intertwined and largely through recent maiden wins of 3yo BM70 races with the same horses competing. 8 – small bet the Richard jolly duo here in evil dreams and go the journey at double figure odds. Reckon a few of the faves are vulnerable here from wide draws or first up or average recent runs. Evil dreams brings form through strategic diamond and boggoms which is very good for this grade of race and won well last start. Needs to get job done at 1200m, but think he can run the trip in this grade (with the right run). stablemate drops back to 1200m from 1400m failure which suits and draws well and blinkers go on and think it can sit first 3 in the run doing no work and if the faves are back/wide, can be hard to run down as it too has form tying into strategic diamond and boggoms (and weight adv too on same rivals). Don’t know much about its jockey and poon rides evil dreams, so will back them both on a split at $10-$12 or so and hope one of them gets up. SYD 7 – first approval hard to beat from inside draw with peak fitness. Several of these are 1st up or 2nd up. numerous race fit horses off maiden wins meet it at level weights. All dry track runs have been good. form strong from its 2nd here on boxing day behind smart horse. Last run at caul super when conceding weight and 3WNC the trip. Like fact its had the run at 1600m whereas others step up to it and can sit handy from gate 1. Sun Royal spinner looks a good thing in the 4th at colac back to its home track where its 2 from 2 with good recent form coming off a strong sat grade at MV when not far away and takes on some ‘past their best’ horses who are stagnant in the ratings. The old boy mujadale far from hopeless in the cup off a top 1st run behind out bottino giving it a stack of weight, career best 1st up run, should be able to resume to its normal front running tactics and give a good sight, at most likely long odds (no markets yet) Best: mallegurea, tenere (about $12 or so this double)

At Pakenhan last night R1. There was a protest 2nd against first, it was upheld. In my humble opinion this was bordering on a discraceful decision. On the momentary interference, about 1 to 1.50 seconds, with post looming. It beggars belief the second horse with no interferance would've got there in time to win. For mine the stewards made a well below par decision.

Arod has never missed a place 1st up & must be impressing Waller to target this race.Gate 1 with Williams to steer at 18-1 is worth an EW ticket for mine.So exciting to see all the good horses coming back-good luck to all.

Good work Cam. I'm with you on Lucky Hussler, generally worth risking as too often he goes around under his true price. I'm with Malaguerra here, drawn with so much speed may not be as bad as I thought. Sitting outside runners for him to wind up gradually appears to really suit. Solid in betting last start, and smashed the field. On face value will take a power of beating. $3.25 rating. He's our Rokki loves the Heath, first up form good. Hard for me to dissmiss this runner not running into the placings. I'd ingnore his run in the Cantala. It was his grand final attempt, and Flemington has issues that I've mentioned before. He's also a 4yo with likely upside, and a great tempo to chase, I've marked him a $13 chance. If the temp in Sydney on Saturday is 38deg or more, will they start the meeting earlier? Good luck punters.

The hussler had a pretty light spring and should have won this race last year. He has a great chance esp as bhb and malaguera form have drawn wide. It wouldnt surprise me to see rokki win either. Anyone have any insight to his trackwork or trial form?