2017 AFL ladder predictions: Top eight countdown begins

We’ve finally reached the top eight in my 2017 ladder predictions! This is the level where things start to get really hard to predict, but I’ll forge ahead and have a go.

As usual, I’d love to hear any comments, complaints or compliments down in the comments.

Click here to read the rest of AdelaideDocker’s AFL ladder predictions.

9th: Fremantle Dockers

In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
A much better year than Fremantle’s horrendous 2016 is what’s going to happen. While Fremantle’s 2017 has been a much debated topic, I’m confident that the revitalised Freo group is set for a fast rise back up the ladder – but finals might be just out of reach for the club.

They were devastated by injuries last year, but a majority of those injured players will make returns straight back into the best 22 this year. Nat Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands should improve Freo’s on-field performance, in particular.

Fremantle will also be looking to their young brigade – which includes Lachie Weller, Connor Blakely and Darcy Tucker – to continue their development. This was admittedly aided by the game-time opportunities afforded by the injuries of senior players last year.

Fremantle’s defence is still strong and the addition of Hamling aids this. The team’s midfield is very good and its Achilles heel – the forward line – has definitely been bolstered.

Fremantle, then, has a lot of potential this year, but the evenness of the competition might just be the thing to keep them out of the finals. St Kilda – the team I’m predicting to finish above them – and Melbourne, the team below, are going to be their closest competitors.

Again, Fremantle have the potential to finish higher, but I’m avoiding taking any finals berth for granted.

2016 was a very tough year, so while the Freo member in me would do anything to see them finish in the top eight – or top four! – I don’t want to place very high expectations on the club. Boy, they’ve got potential though. The real question, though, is will Fyfe stay or go?

Most influential new player?
Fremantle has probably its best trade period in its history late last year. After trying and failing to poach GWS forward Cam McCarthy in 2015, Fremantle landed the talented youngster in a deal which also allowed it to nab Griffin Logue with pick seven in the draft.

Hawthorn’s Bradley Hill, premiership defender Joel Hamling and Geelong’s Shane Kersten also all returned to their home state.

While most of Fremantle’s off-season pick-ups should have an immediate impact, it’s McCarthy and Kersten that have a lot of potential. Both are members of Fremantle’s new look forward line, so all eyes will be on them to impress.

Question marks do remain, though, over McCarthy – who hasn’t played for well over a year. 2015 draftee Harley Balic is another youngster that I for one will be keeping an eye on this year – the very talented lad hasn’t yet pulled on a purple jersey, but all signs point to a 2017 debut. Another classy addition to the midfield ranks, I’d guess.

Predicted surprise win of the season?
Speaking (totally subjectively) as a Freo fan, I’d love nothing more than two beat two teams: West Coast and Hawthorn. Fremantle has got two chances to beat their West Australian rivals (Rounds 6 and 17), while only one chance to play the Hawks (Round 18 – thankfully in Perth, not Tasmania as is too often the case!).

So, a win against either of those teams will be an excellent morale-booster for the club. Fremantle will also be aiming to win their Round 1 match up against Geelong, given the sides history of excellent games against each other, it would be a great opener to their season.

Worst potential loss of the season?
There were several bad losses throughout 2017, not least of which the disheartening loss against the Swans during Pavlich’s 350th game. So, clearly those types of losses will be absolutely unacceptable during 2017.

As a Freo fan, I’ll also say that I’d want my team to avoid losses against teams like Carlton, Collingwood and Gold Coast; teams that we lost to last year that just compounded our horrendous season.

Best and fairest winner?
It was the brilliant Lachie Neale who took out the Doig Medal last year – completely justifiably, after his season during which he broke the record for most disposals. I’m not a betting dude, but I’d be betting on him to back it up. Although, with Fyfe and 2015’s winner Sandilands back on the field, things could get interesting…

8th: St Kilda

In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
St Kilda has made a speedy rise back into relevance after several years of mediocrity, with last year being an excellent launch pad into the upcoming season. They were certainly in the running for finals up until the final weeks of the season – a heavy loss to the Swans put a stop to that, though.

2017, though, is the year that I feel like the Saints will return to the finals fold for the first time since 2011. It’s obvious that they have a youthful yet great team – with most facets of their team covered; their forward line especially.

For me, however, it’s the Saints (not all consuming, but noticeable) reliance on their some of their veterans that is worrying. Don’t get me wrong, their veterans are great players, but when Nick Reiwoldt is kicking nine goals and getting 26 touches in their final match last year, I start to wonder who will fill his shoes then he’s gone?

And then, I only need to look at younger players like Josh Bruce, Jack Billings, Jack Newnes and others, and I realise that maybe this Alan Richardson bloke is doing all right after all. And, that’s exactly the reason why I love watching the Saints. They’re youthful, they’re improving, and maybe, just maybe, eighth will be underestimating them.

Most influential new player?
The Saints had a wonderful pre-season. Not an especially active one, but excellent nonetheless. The poached Jack Steele (yes, another Jack) from GWS, Collingwood’s Nathan Brown, Koby Stevens from the reigning premiers and a couple of draft picks from Hawthorn (which is probably the best part of it all, but that’s a whole other discussion).

Brown will be a massive (and experienced) addition to the club’s defensive unit, while Stevens and Steele will definitely compliment the Saints already good midfield. Nathan Freeman’s long-anticipated debut will also draw a lot of attention, but I won’t place any high expectations on the youngster who has suffered from chronic injuries.

Other than that, there wasn’t any other activity at the club during the trade period.

Surprise win of the season?
Hawthorn and North Melbourne – two teams that the Saints got oh-so-close to defeating last year – and Geelong and Collingwood, two teams that the Saints sensationally defeated last year, would all be on the Saints radar this year.

A win against most or all of them would prove to me that the Saints are the real deal. I’m confident that they would easily be able to defeat the Pies and North, so that leaves Hawthorn and Geelong. Beat either of those – convincingly – and the Saints are flying.

Worst potential loss of the season?
They’d want to avoid any potential loss against Melbourne – the team that they have an excellent recent history against. It’s possible that 2017 could be the year where that streak is broken, though, with both the Dees and the Saints having very promising squads.

St Kilda also suffered some demoralisingly heavy losses outside of Victoria – to the Crows in Adelaide and West Coast in Perth rings bells – so I’m positive that a chief aim of the Saints this year is to limit those losses.

They’d clearly want to, given that the heavy interstate losses the biggest blight on an otherwise very promising 2016 season.

Best and fairest winner?
The Trevor Barker Award was awarded to the Saints young gun Jack Steven last year – the third time in the last four years he has received it.

The Saints have an abundance of players who could pick up the award this year, but yet again I’ll go out on a limb and say that Reiwoldt will get it. For a sixth time.

7th: Hawthorn

In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
Undeniably one of the best teams of the modern era, Hawthorn’s 2016 came to an end at the hands of the Bulldogs in that stunning semi-final.

While some believe that Hawthorn could potentially fall out of the eight, they fact that they’re theoretically still a very good team means that – for me – they’re not going to drop out of the finals, just yet.

They’ve shaken their team up, given the captaincy to all round good bloke Jarryd Roughhead, and you can be sure Clarkson is devising some wonderfully mischievous plans that’ll somehow work.

It’ll be intriguing to see the Hawks without two icons on the field, how they deal with their depleted ruck situation; and hopefully watch their talented youngsters get more of a run. Hawthorn won’t be as potent or as powerful as last year, but if there’s something we know about the Hawks, it’s that they can (and probably will) surprise.

Most influential new player?
Well, you can’t deny that it was one hell of a trade period for Hawthorn. Out went Bradley Hill, Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis, and in came the Swans’ Tom Mitchell, the Suns’ Jaeger O’Meara and …. Ty Vickery? It was odd, but efficient. Typical Hawks style.

Clearly, it is O’Meara (who was traded in the final minutes of the trade period, no less) who will be Hawthorn’s most prominent new face on field, with the midfielder set to replace the departed Lewis and Mitchell.

Tom Mitchell will do the same, adding more talent to a midfield that took hit in terms of talent with the departures. As for Vickery? Well, the plan is that he’ll give the Hawks another forward target, and, perhaps most importantly, will provide them with another player who is able to complete in the ruck – probably their biggest weakness at the moment.

Surprise win of the season?
Every time I get to this section, I’ve been trying to think of a long-running adversity of a team, or a team that they’d absolutely love to beat. But, it’s a lot more difficult with Hawthorn, I must admit.

I’ll say that they’ll be aiming to win (admittedly it won’t be a surprise if they win, though) matches against Geelong, West Coast and Sydney: arguably their biggest competitors from recent years.

Perhaps more pressingly, they’d desperately be hoping to win their Round 16 game against GWS: the game that I’ll say is one of their bigger challenges in 2017.

Worst potential loss of the season?
They would hate to lose to the Demons again, I don’t doubt. Last year’s loss was euphoria for Demons supporters, but a shock to Hawks fans. So, they’ll be hoping to be on the winning side of the ledger come May 7, when the duo meets at the MCG.

They’ll also be facing a potentially resurgent Fremantle at Domain Stadium in Round 18, so I don’t think many Hawks supporters would be too impressed if they lost to the team that they eliminated from the finals in 2015, and defeated in a grand final in 2013.

Best and fairest winner?
The 2016 Peter Crimmins Medallist was … Sam Mitchell. Oh, this is awkward. I’m all about hopping on a feel-good story, so I’ll go out on a limb and say that new captain Jarryd Roughhead.

If he doesn’t get it, he should get an award anyway. The inaugural Hawthorn ‘good-bloke’ award, maybe?

Quick recap
My ladder, up to this point, is as follows:

7). Hawthorn
8). St Kilda
9). Fremantle Dockers
10). Melbourne
11). Port Adelaide
12). Collingwood
13). Essendon
14). Richmond
15). North Melbourne
16). Carlton
17). Gold Coast Suns
18). Brisbane Lions