Last weekend’s Six Nations action turned out some surprises, none bigger than Wales losing to Scotland for the first time in years.
Who saw this coming? Me. I did. And I wish I’d written an article about it beforehand so I could back it up.
Scottish teams in the Pro 12 have been on fire – Glasgow have been putting in astounding performances – and it has come through at the Test arena. This is a team on the up, with quick, fizzy halfbacks, awesome, fleet-footed centres, and an imaginative back three.
The signs were there last year, their performance against Australia was heart-breakingly close, and they have every chance on their day of running the best of the Six Nations teams more than close.
Wales on the other hand?
They are playing the same game, with different players. They have spoken about evolution, but the only thing I see them trying is different players using the same gameplan, with a touch more emphasis on offloading.
There is still the same tenets of ‘Warrenball’. Kicking out of hand from the back three, forward (and back) one-off runners off the 9. I mean, that was ridiculous, I have seen Dan Biggar, this year, as a crash ball. Thats not a 10’s damn job! Their job is to organise the attack and run for space, not play the battering ram.
The Welsh attack is too deep with Biggar, and the Scots were comfortable dealing with it.
The majority of play comes off the 9, and this involves one-off passes to the forwards. When it doesn’t and it gets to the 10, he passes to another forward, who will perform the same action. This gives the attack generally two options: playing off 9 or 10. Any motion involving going through the hands is nearly defunct due to the depth of the back line.
With Biggar and Scott Williams at 10 and 12, they should utilise a strategy that maximises the two playmakers: greater options, distribution, width. None of that is happening. When a 10 is being used as a crash ball it’s bad, but draw in Williams at 12, who is playing exactly the way Jamie Roberts used to play, and you have a problem.
The coaches, it seems, don’t know how to coach another attacking game plan.
One area that I also cannot fathom is their back three. In Liam Williams, they a player so respected for his silky running skills he has been signed by Saracens.
How do they use him? Kick it back Liam, keep it in touch and kick it back.
It’s a disgraceful use of their best runner.
The way forward is to get rid of coaches Rob Howley and Warren Gatland, and get Dave Rennie from Glasgow or a Super Rugby coach. Because Wales have the players, but not the gameplan or the coaches to make it happen.
However, the point of this article isn’t what they need, but to say what Ireland would have learnt, and in all honesty, the Irish would’ve learnt nothing new.
Their back three will be encouraged to attack. They will maul it with their forwards, work hard on the floor and pressure the Welsh in defence. The Welsh attack is not varied, and any metres made will be from passion, power and pick-and-go, not subtlety, deception or width.
Therefore, I predict Ireland will number up on the inside to drive back the forwards with two-on-one tackles, which in itself will result in the Welsh losing the gainline battle. They won’t be able to move it wide with the pace and flatness they need to make metres in the backline, apart from on turnover. If they try, the rush defence will cut off the outside and the Irish will be focusing on forcing the team back back into their umbrella.
Because of this, expect a lot of kicking and chasing from the Welsh. The Irish will want this, as their players are superb under the high ball, and against an unstructured defence.
The set piece will be key in this game, and that gives the Irish a further edge.
For Wales to have a chance, they must put on a performance on par with the one against England; stop forcing the offload and making errors in try-scoring positions. They do this and they can stay in the game, but Joe Schmidt will know exactly how to hurt the opposition.
Ironically, the way they’ll do it is exposing the deficiencies of Warrenball, which strangely can be done by playing to Ireland’s strengths. Physicality on the gainline, kicking accuracy, territorial pressure, and subtlety in the backline.
Mike
Guest
Colm those outside backs you have mentioned simply aren't international standard. Earls, Zebo, Trimble and Payne are all classy players in defense and attack...maybe they lack a little pace. The key for Ireland is to move Henshaw to 13 and pick a more creative 12. Someone like Olding, Madigan or Marshall. Aki will partner Henshaw soon and Payne will be moved to fullback.
James
Guest
But look at the ground the Irish team made against Scotland, defence imo is not Scotland's strong suit whereas France despite there rep of not caring about defence where actually very good and it wasnt just this game, England struggled as well. But at the same time Wales played Japan & Italy and scored 3 tries in both games and this is a Japan team in transition and without EJ so it wasnt much different than Canada. Ireland's problem in attack is the philosophy rather than the players, Scotland before Cotter took over had the worst back line in the 6N and now with maybe 1 or 2 changes at most they now have an argument for having the best, what is the common denominator in all that? That's right, scrapping the pre cotter attack and taking in his idea's. If Payne come's in than Schmidt better pray to god that Ireland win as if they dont he won't be able to walk the streets after that call, Ringrose has been very good so far for Ireland yet somehow Payne who's only played 80 minutes of rugby against 2 italian pro12 team's has somehow justified his selection, personally I can't see it happening, I think he will wear the 23 jersey.
Colm
Roar Guru
Looking forward to the piece on Scotland, Conor. Lancaster is doing a fantastic job at Leinster. Wouldn't be surprised if he becomes the coach of Ireland in the future. Regarding attacking potency, rumour has it Ringrose will be dropped, because his defense isn't good enough.
Colm
Roar Guru
I believe Ireland have better backline options than Wales, but they are not being selected. There are plenty of team stats either way, which you could use as justification of your point, but that wouldn't necessarily tell you anything about the difference between the backlines. For example, Ireland made an average of 2.2 meters per carry against France in their last match, Wales made an average of 3.55 meters per carry in their last match against Scotland. Have you checked out the stats for how Ireland scored those tries. 16 of those 28, came in two games against Italy and Canada. As Fionn pointed out, a lot of Ireland's tries come directly from first phase. The speculation it that Ringrose will be dropped, and that Payne will come back into the teams at 13. I'm sorry, but people are always going to question the attacking ambition of a backline with Jared Payne at 13, Rob Kearney at 15 and Andrew Trimble at 11/14.
Conor Wilson
Roar Pro
As in my reply to Colm, I think the backline is improving its attack, especially against defences where kickers have come through. Either with clever kicks from Murray/Sexton or RIngrose/Zebo making breaks. I also think some of the most Subtle, most deceptive plays in Rugby come from the Joe Schmidt handbook. To be honest post WC the RFU made an approach for him. I know he'd never go for it, but I think hes the equal of Jones. And would've been happy with him in charge.
Cathal
Guest
What evidence do Wales have far more creative back's? they are joint with Italy for having the least number of tries scored this season (13) whereas Ireland are joint with England for having the most scored (28). Every season there is a cliché about the Irish team and this season it seems to exadurate the bashing of the backline, I don't expect it to last too long though.
Conor Wilson
Roar Pro
I will disagree, respectfully of course. But with Ringrose, Murray, Zebo and Sexton finding some form again, i feel the Irish attack against Unstructured defence is growing in potency. You could say Lancasters influence is being felt at Leinster and good on him, as he is a decent bloke. Ireland are offloading in the tackle more and more, and whilst their strength is converting territorial pressure to points, I feel their attack is starting to progress, and whilst Italy aren't a huge amount of opposition, they ran them ragged when on the back foot after line breaks, and i feel they're starting to bring that edge forward to other opposition. P.S: I had a huge segment on what Scotland could've gathered as well, but the ROAR editors left it out! Will try and get it up on a seperate article maybe.
Colm
Roar Guru
Good article Conor. I agree that Ireland should have the advantage at set piece. For me though, Wales have far more creative backs than Ireland. Like you say, they are being neglected with the Howley's game plan. I would like to see Sam Davies and Ashley Beck get more game time for Wales.
Colm
Roar Guru
I completely agree Fionn. According to recent reports, Payne will come into the 13 jersey for the Wales match. This means Ireland will try to play 10-man rugby, with Johnny Sexton kicking the leather of the ball. I think joe Schmidt will go down as one of Ireland's most conservative coaches. The Irish provinces are producing some of the most exciting backs in European rugby, but Schmidt refuses to select them. There is no reason not to select Jacob Stockdale, Adam Byrne, Darren Sweetnam, Tiernan O'Halloran or Craig Gilroy.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
I'm sorry but for all the strengths in the Irish team, and there are many, Ireland's attack against an unstructured defence is not one of them. Aside from off the set-piece, Ireland's attack has really been lacking—check out the statistics of how Ireland scores their tries. In fact, Ireland's biggest failing in the matches they have lost since the WC—as well as those they almost lost, such as against the Wallabies—was an inability to attack. It has meant that their dominance up front has often resulted in not nearly enough points. They rarely lose the match up front, but often behind due a distinct lack of subtlety in the backline.