Every tipster and punter has one, a bogey side, where it feels like no matter the time or the place, they lose when you tip them to win and low and behold they win each time you want them to lose.
But when all the emotion, bias and memories of lost bets are taken out of the equation who is the most unpredictable side in the AFL?
For all those long-suffering Tigers supporters currently yelling at your screen ‘we are, we are!’ you would be right. The Tigers, closely followed by the Pies and Dees, have been the most unpredictable side in the AFL since the start of the 2014 season.
During these seasons only 61.8% of games played by the Tigers ended with the favoured team winning. This outcome sits significantly lower than the 73% win rate for favourites in all matches across this period.
To make matters worse for Richmond fans, they are consistently inconsistent, losing when favourite or winning when the underdog in just about equal measure.
From 2014 to 2016 the Tigers won 23 out of 37 games (62.2%) when favourite. Their efforts are not great, but still better than the Lions (16.7%), Dees (35.7%), Blues (46.7%) and Pies (57.1%).
What immediately jumps out about these teams is that, over the period in question, they have been relatively young sides who have resided towards the bottom end of the ladder. With little on-field experience, they have shown a propensity to falter under the pressure and expectation of favouritism.
Richmond, despite having a higher win percentage that the other four sides, is a clear anomaly in this bottom grouping, being both a more experienced team and the only side to have contested finals in this time.
This failure by Richmond to win when expected is obviously a major reason why Damien Hardwick enters this season with such doubt over his future.
When starting matches as the underdog, the Tigers won 12 of 31 games, that is to say, the favoured outcome occurred 19 times or in 61.3% of matches.
In terms of losing when expected, the Tigers have been more reliable than the Swans (46.2%), Cats (55.6%), Hawks (57.1%) and Dogs (57.5%) who have all won a higher percentage of games as the less fancied team.
In this bracket of clubs, Richmond again appears as the outlier. On one hand, we have the Swans, Cats, Hawks and Dogs, who have been largely very successful over this period, between them they have only missed two final series, filled five of the six grand final berths, and won each of the three premierships up for grabs.
The old adage of never writing off a champion team seems to ring true.
On the other hand, we have the Tigers. Yes, they have had finals appearances in this time, but no grand finals, top four finishes or famously finals victories.
Instead, the Tigers have individuals, who on their day can carry their team to victory no matter the opposition or circumstance, but who have also shown a tendency to go missing for reasons of form, fitness and mental application.
At the opposite end of the predictability spectrum, we have Fremantle who have been a model of consistency. Since 2014 the Dockers have played in 70 matches and in 59 of those the favourite has prevailed. With an 84.3% favoured outcome rating, they sit comfortably above the league average of 73%.
The Dockers finished these home and away season in fourth, first and 16th positions, so when either winning or losing they have done so, in a majority of cases, in line with the expectations of betting markets.
I see two key factors driving this consistent and predictable level of performance. Firstly, Ross Lyon’s overall coaching philosophy and game plan, and secondly, the generally experienced nature of the Fremantle sides of 2014-16.
So, what is a tipster to make of all of this? For what it’s worth, here is what I take from the data:
(1) Beware of inexperienced sides who are placed in the bottom third of the ladder, they are a 50/50 proposition at best when favourite.
(2) Watch out for the talented but underperforming teams in the competition, are the conditions right for them to catch fire today?
(3) Sides who have that little something special about them, who have either proven themselves as a champion team, or are capable of developing into one, can find a way to win no matter the odds.
(4) Experienced teams are like older thoroughbred stayers – they will run to form, but they’re not going to win their first Melbourne Cup as an eight-year-old.
(5) For those long-suffering Richmond supporters, these numbers should act like a diagnosis from your doctor after a period of ill health. It is sometimes better to know that you do actually have a problem and that the symptoms aren’t just in your head.
Jack Dyer
Roar Rookie
You might have expected North’s Jekyll and Hyde 2016 season to have been full of surprises for tipsters and punters but on closer review they lost only one game as favourite (v Port R17) and lost in every game as underdog – i.e. 95% of North games (21/22) in 2016 ended with the expected outcome. Their fast start in 2016 perhaps more reflective of their draw.
Gordon P Smith
Roar Guru
Excellent analysis. Surprised the Kangaroos aren't more unpredictable according to this metric - they're the ones I always think of as doing the opposite of expected.
Jack Dyer
Roar Rookie
Updated article (Version control issues): Every tipster and punter has one, a bogey side, where it feels like no matter the time or the place, they lose when you tip them to win and low and behold they win each time you want them to lose. But when all the emotion, bias and memories of lost bets are taken out of the equation who is the most unpredictable side in the AFL? For all those long suffering Tigers supporters currently yelling at your screen ‘WE ARE, WE ARE’ you would be right. The Tigers, closely followed by the Pies and Dees, have been the most unpredictable side in the AFL since the start of the 2014 season. During this period only 61.8% of games played by the Tigers ended with the favoured team winning. This outcome sits significantly lower than the win rate of 73% for favourites in all matches across these seasons. To make matters worse for Richmond fans, they are consistently inconsistent, losing when favourite or winning when the underdog in just about equal measure. From 2014 to 2016 the Tigers won 23 out of 37 games when favourite or 62.2% of matches. Their efforts are not great, but still better than the Lions (16.7%), Dees (35.7%), Blues (46.7%) and Pies (57.1%) who all have lower win percentages as favourite. What immediately jumps out about these teams is that, over the period in question, they have been relatively young sides who have resided towards the bottom end of the ladder. With little on field experience they have shown a propensity to falter under the pressure and expectation of favouritism. Richmond though is a clear anomaly in this grouping of clubs, being both a more experienced team and the only side to have contested finals in this time. This failure by Richmond to win when expected is obviously a major reason why Damien Hardwick enters this season with such doubt over his future. When starting matches as the underdog, the Tigers won 12 of 31 games, that is to say the favoured outcome occurred 19 times or in 61.3% of matches. In terms of losing when expected the Tigers have been more reliable than the Swans (46.2%), Cats (55.6%), Hawks (57.1%) and Dogs (57.5%) who have all won a higher percentage of games as the non favoured team. In this bracket of clubs Richmond again appears as the outlier. On one hand we have the Swans, Cats, Hawks and Dogs, who have been largely very successful over this period, between them they have only missed two final series, filled five of the six grand final berths, and won each of the three premierships up for grabs. The old adage of never writing off a champion team seems to ring true. While on the other hand we have the Tigers, yes they have had finals appearances in this time, but no grand finals, top four finishes or famously finals victories. Instead the Tigers have individuals, who on their day can carry their team to victory no matter the opposition or circumstance, but who have also shown a tendency to go missing for reasons of form, fitness and mental application. At the opposite end of the predictability spectrum we have Fremantle who have been a model of consistency. Since 2014 the Dockers have played in 70 matches and in 59 of those the favourite has prevailed. With an 84.3% favoured outcome rating, they sit comfortably above the league average of 73%. The Dockers finished these home and away season in 4th, 1st and 16th positions, so when either winning or losing they have done so, in a majority of cases, in line with the expectations of betting markets. I put this down to two key reasons, firstly, Ross Lyon’s overall coaching philosophy and game plan, and secondly, the generally experienced nature of the Fremantle sides of 2014-16, both of these factors contributed to a consistent level of output each week. So, what is a tipster to make of all of this? For what it’s worth here are my insights: (1) Beware of inexperienced sides who are placed in the bottom third of the ladder, they are a 50/50 proposition at best when favourite. (2) Watch out for the talented but underperforming teams in the competition, are the conditions right for them to catch fire today? (3) Who are the sides who have that little something special about them, who have either proven themselves as, or are capable of developing into, a champion team, for no matter the odds they can find a way to win. (4) Experienced teams are like old thoroughbred stayers - they will run to form, but they’re not going to win their first Melbourne Cup as an 8 year old. (5) For those long suffering Richmond supporters, these numbers should act like a diagnosis from your Doctor after a period of ill health. It is sometimes better to know that you do actually have a problem and that the symptoms aren’t just in your head.
Slane
Guest
Great final paragraph. Definitely resonates with me.