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Roar Guru
Joined February 2017
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I'm a Yank who stays up Friday and Saturday nights from February through September to get my fix o'footy.
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Followers of my writing know I work with a group called Following Football, which uses a simple method to rate teams in a wide range of sports – all football-adjacent such as Aussie Rules, American football, rugby and the like – and use those ratings to forecast game outcomes.
Last week was tough for me and (to a lesser extent) the ELO-Following Football rating system.
Riley Beveridge wrote a great article on the AFL website on Monday that delved into the recent history of other teams which like Melbourne and Footscray had also started their seasons with six consecutive wins.
Here are the Following Football ELO ratings for each of the 18 AFL clubs, and the predictions they present for the upcoming games in Round 6 of the 2021 season.
I have been a vocal advocate for the AFLW since its inception – long before the opening sell-out and lock-out between Carlton and Collingwood at Ikon Park on February 3, 2017, back to when all-star teams representing Melbourne and the Bulldogs were plying their wares before men’s games in the mid-2010s, selling the public and […]
This is part two of our “Following Football” article tracking the teams and players of the 2021 AFL season. In part one, we shared both the overall ratings and the vote totals for each team and compared them to show the likelihood of making finals for six or seven clubs in particular (West Coast, perhaps […]
Missed y’all last week; there were problems on our end. We’ll get you caught up on the numbers for each club and their top players after four rounds of the 2021 AFL season right now.
The big disadvantage of living halfway around the world from the sport I love and (more pertinently) the site I write for is the delay in communication between my editors and myself – literally a matter of day and night, in most cases.
You would assume that a league ladder would be evenly balanced from top to bottom, wouldn’t you?
Melbourne beat Fremantle in Round 8 37-32 in a game at Fremantle Oval where the Dockers failed to score a single goal in the entire first half and the Demons went to the long break up by 24 points.
Another week, another couple of bucks to the good on our 18 hypothetical dollars. With six winners and six correct bets (the scariest being Sydney by less than 40 – thank you, garbage time Tex Walker! – and the Bulldogs covering 6.5 points, which I didn’t realise they had until the next day!), we made […]
The final six are set, and they’re the same six we set aside as the contenders after Round 2.
Each season at Following Football, we track a combination of sources – coach and media votes along with stats and fantasy scoring – to find an overall most outstanding player for the AFL season.
This time of year is a smorgasbord of footy – there are 16 games again this weekend, including nine on the men’s side for Round 2.
Each season, our “Following Football” organisation tracks well over a dozen sources – coach and media votes along with stats and fantasy scoring – to determine the most outstanding player for the AFL season.
Welcome to the house of mirrors, where nothing you think you see can be taken at face value, change is our friend, sacred cows are to be sacrificed, and flexibility is key to our very survival as a season and as a league.
As expected, we and every other prognosticator of women’s footy went jet airplane last week – that is “7-for-7”.
There were a bunch of those concealed injuries that came out in the open after the season ended, not just Lutkins — but you’re absolutely right to praise her in particular.
The pinnacle of women's football - so far
It means that when you see the Bulldogs favored by eleven, they’ve won that game by more than eleven. That’s happened four of their five games (now five of six). Thanks for asking! I always worry about assuming too much…
Round 6 ratings and projections
Absolutely. Once wrote a piece to that effect: six or seven of the finalists in September are currently in the top eight in round seven. The trick, most years, is figuring out which two will drop and which two will rise. You’d think Melbourne and Footscray are safe.
What does the unbeaten start from the Bulldogs and Demons mean?
And my relative recent attachment to the game (twenty years) means that I don’t remember many of the situations first hand, and some of those injury details are hard to come by this far along. But that’s always of great significance: I made the comment in my pre-season prediction article that whichever of the four teams I thought were the best of the lot that was most free of injuries would win the cup, and I’m thinking that to be true of the Demons, Dogs, Power, and perhaps a couple of the 3-3 and 4-2 teams as well. Thanks for the compliments.
What does the unbeaten start from the Bulldogs and Demons mean?
The average nine-game week has three “upsets”, of varying sizes. Sometimes it’s a Tigers/Port type, when it was 55/45 to begin with, and sometimes North Melbourne will rise up and beat someone by forty, and anyone claiming to have predicted it is lying… The trick, of course, is knowing when and where those upsets are coming. And our guesses keep the casinos in business. Smart of you not to have confidence – the moment you feel confident on picking sporting events is the moment you lose it all.
AFL Round 5 betting preview
I agree that most of that sounds like good advice … hard for me to know what to make of the Psychotic Psaints right now, though, and since two of those we’re s’posed to keep the faith with are playing each other, Im stuck with my dilemma.
AFL Round 5 betting preview
Avatar, I’m right with you on both games, even to the point spread on the Crows (I have the Lions by four)…. I’m curious if you have any thoughts on the men’s round four this week: any games you think might not go the way the oddsmakers say they will? (I’m leaning Gold Coast, Richmond, and Melbourne myself.)
2021 AFL Women's finals series: Week 2 preview
As for Adelaide: lower scores are also better for the same reason – it preserves the extremely high percentage. So if they win with 50 points, they have to hold Collingwood to 41 to gain the top seed. If they score 60, they must hold them to 46 points; at 70, they’ll have to win by 19, and so on. But if they can manage a 34-32 victory, they can take the top seed, keep Collingwood’s percentage slightly above Brisbane’s so the Pies have the second seed, and drop the Lions down to third. That’s about the only way Brisbane does NOT have a bye next week!
My AFLW Round 9 preview
SUNDAY MORNING COMMENT:
With the standings and percentages as they are following the wins by Melbourne and North on Saturday, Collingwood’s path is easy: win and you have the #1 seed. Lose and they still have the #2 seed (even an 80-0 loss won’t sink their percentage to where Melbourne’s is. The Demons are locked into the #3 if the Pies win.) But Collingwood can still keep the #1 seed (important for the GF) if they keep the score low: if Adelaide scores 36 points and wins, Collingwood cannot hold on to the top seed. If they limit Adelaide to 30, they can lose by as much as six and hold the top seed. And if Adelaide only scores 20, Collingwood can score just five points and still beat Brisbane’s percentage.
My AFLW Round 9 preview
That’s above my pay grade, I’m afraid. I just write the articles.
Stirling? Can you answer this question?
My AFLW Round 9 preview
I thought so, too. Had not seen the Bruton suspension when I wrote this; it does make the argument harder to defend. But North has a wider variety of tools at their disposal; the suspension means less to them than it would have to the Dockers. I’ll still take the Kangaroos, although I have no cheering preference myself.
My AFLW Round 9 preview
Smartest thing they could have done. This isn’t directly a money-making league: it’s a league designed to enhance each individual club’s value. Gate receipts are comparatively insignificant.
2020 AFL Women's season: Round 6 preview
I don’t understand why Richmond’s upcoming spoon is dependent on a Gold Coast victory over the Eagles – I’d argue it went the other way: that if West Coast wins, Richmond has the 14th place clinched. . . . Oh, and I need to tell you, in all honesty, I always try to wait until your weekly article has posted until I send in mine… It’s not that I have to agree with you, but I respect your opinion enough that if you’ve got something significantly askew from mine, I take a good hard look at mine again and see if I’ve missed something in my prediction. Thanks for your stellar work.
2020 AFL Women's season: Round 6 preview
My turn:
1. Dustin Martin. . . .
2. Nat Fyfe. . . .
3. Patrick Cripps. . . .
4. Marcus Bontempelli. . . .
5. Paddy Dangerfield. . . .
6. Jeremy Cameron. . . .
7. Stephen Coniglio. . . .
8. Tim Kelly. . . .
9. Brodie Grundy. . . .
10. Luke Parker. . . .
The Roar's AFL top 50 players: 20-11
Having just posted a reply to a comment on my own article about how I can’t imagine writing a prediction article based on pre-season historical results, you’ve gone and done a marvelous and meaningful job of exactly that, Josh – brilliant! . . . The only thing I’d add is the need for teams who were in desperate needs of optimism for both themselves and their supporters to do well during pre-season. Melbourne was certainly number one on that list, and it’s no surprise to see them go two-for-two in the summer session. Gold Coast can be counted in that context as well, although you correctly pointed out the reason for reticense on their part for the 22-game season ahead. Here’s hoping a year of maturity for all the boys who went through the last campaign or three helps them pull off a few more victories later in the year. Perhaps SK and Freo faced similar doubts that 2-0 help defray, but otherwise the rest of the league is just thinking March 19th starts at 0-0-0.
AFL preseason trends predict a top-eight shake-up
I can’t imagine ever writing an article based on pre-season results. Point given, and I agree with your analyses.
Historical clues to predicting AFL placements in 2020 (Part 1)
No such thing – I’ll have the Tigers first when I post my personal predictions next week. Even looking at data only, I’ve still got them locked in to the top four “in pen”. Not sure how much higher you think I should’ve suggested from the data of a third-place finisher, not to mention the infrequency of teams repeating championships in this league. By the data alone, second might be a bit high, in fact. However, I’ll still put them first next week because looking at this actual physical team (this article doesn’t do that at all and says so in the introduction), I think they’re the most likely to win. . . .
Or is it hating to say that? If so, count me as a Richmond hater…
Historical clues to predicting AFL placements in 2020 (Part 1)
Mine too, although I can’t see Richmond not being the prohibitive favorite. I tried to be as objective about the data as I could be – there’s no way West Coast falls to thirteenth, which is what I wrote since that’s where they ended up the last two times they were fifth. But all this kind of article is ever useful for is sparking conversation, so I’m glad you’re here conversing! Thanks for the feedback.
Historical clues to predicting AFL placements in 2020 (Part 1)
I was about to share my guesses for your top 30 when you posted this, so I suppose I’ll weed these 9 out and share my guesses for the remaining 20 instead. Argue as you will. . . . Brad Crouch (AD), Lachie Neale (BR), Patrick Cripps (CA), Brodie Grundy (CW), Scott Pendlebury (CW), Steele Sidebottom (CW), Nat Fyfe (FR), Patrick Dangerfield (GE), Mitch Duncan (GE), Jeremy Cameron (GW), Stephen Coniglio (GW), Josh Kelly (GW), Lachie Whitfield (GW), Max Gawn (ME), Tom Lynch (RI), Dustin Martin (RI), Lance Franklin (SY – can’t wait to see where y’all decide to rank him), Luke Parker (SY), Tim Kelly (WC), Elliot Yeo (WC), and Marcus Bontempelli (WD). . . . Yes, there are 21 names there. Like I said, I had a top 30, and I weeded out nine of the ten that were already named. Which of these 21 candidates didn’t even make the top 50? No clue; it’ll be interesting to see over the next two days. Great writing, all of you.
The Roar's AFL top 50 players: 30-21
The heavy majority of the data we’re using in these analyses are from 1990 forward, and 1994 forward in particular when there were eight finalists and at least fifteen (usually sixteen) teams. But when we’re looking at something as specific as what happened after a minor premiership, it’s convenient to include the older evidence as well. . . . As for the “click bait” accusation, Yattuzzi, I’m not sure what you could have expected different from what we delivered. I thought the editors found a highly appropriate title for this article.
Historical clues to predicting AFL placements in 2020 (Part 1)
In the interest of full disclosure, the “fan consensus” comes from the two tipping contests I use that display how many folks have picked each team – ESPN.com.au and afl.com.au – and just average the two of them. In the closest example above, Geelong was favored by 67% in one contest, and by 47% in the other (Brisbane was favored by the other 53%); hence, they were listed here as 57%.
AFLW Round 2 at a glance
It also points towards the difficulty of defining the team’s defenders by opposition scoring and the team’s forwards by their own scoring. As others have pointed out, there’s much more that goes into those evaluations, even before getting into the idiosyncracies of the age of a list, injuries, a team’s structure on off/def, and so forth.
Champion Data have released their 2020 list rankings and we have many, many questions
I’m going to “defend” Champion Data a wee bit. Just for contrast… . . . Their week-to-week stuff has always seemed to be relatively accurate, at least in ranking players on their relative performances in each round. (If anyone can make something useful out of “metres gained”, though, I’d love to hear it.) But the fact that all that’s released here are these vague over-arching categories of the three regions in relative rankings only, combined in an undescribed manner, tells me they knew they had nothing concrete to share and simply released this for a conversation starter. . . . . I went back and compared last year’s “predictive rankings” with reality and your collective memories were spot on – they were no more accurate than XI’s randomized forecasts are: Melbourne 1st, Adelaide 2nd; Brisbane 10th, West Coast 11th. So ignore the results this year, too, but don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. This use of their data is worth the value of Donald Trump’s makeup, but the in-season data they produce does occasionally have its uses.
Champion Data have released their 2020 list rankings and we have many, many questions
Thank you, Gyfox.
The pinnacle of women's football - so far