It’s Rosehill’s biggest day of the year, and one of the best days on the racing calendar. Yesterday, we looked at the Golden Slipper and George Ryder, but there are still another three Group 1s to go.
The Ranvet Stakes winners list isn’t exactly a who’s who of Australian weight-for-age racing over the years, albeit some very good horses have won it, including some of the greats.
The biggest surprise is that Lonhro never won this race, despite being the dominant middle-distance performer in Sydney in the early 2000s.
Hartnell, nominally Australia’s second-best horse, is the clear market-elect in this eight-horse field, despite flopping badly in the Chipping Norton Stakes behind Winx last start. It was clearly his worst run for 12 months, where he didn’t look to handle the heavy track, and thus it’s hard to be confident he will here.
Preferment ran last in the Chipping Norton, and has completely lost the form that has delivered him four Group 1 wins.
Antonio Guiseppe is a mudder that rose to prominence in the spring when running second in the Metropolitan after stringing together the wins in restricted grade. He’s returned in good enough order, and has fitness on his side to make an impact.
The Victorians have made the trip north of the border to make up half the field.
Stratum Star and The United States both enjoyed good runs and ran well accordingly in the Australia Cup, albeit no match for Humidor and Jameka.
The United States was a bit weak late, and may have peaked for fitness at the 100m. His one genuine wet-track run was on debut in Europe, so he’s an unknown on a shifting surface. Stratum Star was his usual honest self, but isn’t quite strong enough at 2000m in Group 1 WFA class, and he would prefer firmer ground.
Our Ivanhowe is first-up from the Melbourne Cup, and has 2000m Group 1 WFA form, beating proper horses like Hauraki and It’s Somewhat in the Doomben Cup last year. Those close to the horse will tell you that he should thrive on this ground.
He’s Our Rokkii has never raced on a bottomless track, but has always enjoyed the cut out. Unless he motors through it, he doesn’t have the class to win this sort of race.
Sofia Rosa is the lone mare in the field, and is coming off a Group 1 third in New Zealand, where she was hitting the line over an unsuitable distance. The ATC Oaks winner never came up in the spring, but may be ready to show her wares now, and has four soft-track wins to her credit.
One of Stratum Star and Antonio Guiseppe will lead them along, with the other sitting off, while Hartnell should settle behind this pair, and be difficult to beat if he responds after his poor performance last start.
Selections
1. Hartnell 2. Antonio Guiseppe 3. Sofia Rosa 4. Our Ivanhowe
The Galaxy is always an open affair, just as its Melbourne counterpart, the Oakleigh Plate, is and this year is no exception.
The first five home from the Challenge Stakes, run on a heavy 10, are all here.
English won that race, saving many lengths on the corner as the rest of the field fanned wide. It meant she didn’t get the best ground for much of the straight, and also hit the front earlier than ideal, so it was a win full of quality.
Her biggest problem here is she meets her main challengers up to three kilograms worse at the weights from that race.
Redzel just couldn’t reel in English over 1000m after being three wide on the speed, but 1100m is his specialist distance, and he is also at his best when leading alone, something he couldn’t do in the Challenge. He’ll be hard to catch if he can dictate.
Supido was doing his best work late down the outside rail, and his third to Black Heart Bart in the Goodwood last year sticks in mind. A handicap is much more suitable for him at this stage in his career, and he’s a live threat.
Felines had had enough late when running fourth in the Challenge, either peaking on her run or throwing in the towel on the heavy track. She’s got some quality about her, and wouldn’t shock. Jungle Edge, fifth in the same race, is going to find it tough.
The Oakleigh Plate is the other key lead-up race, providing three runners. Faatinah ran second at big odds, Miss Promiscuity ran fifth at triple figures, and Fell Swoop had a rare down day in sixth.
Faatinah and Miss Promiscuity are hard to catch at the best of times, let alone on such wet ground outside their home state. Both have drawn well, which will help them take up the forward positions they like.
Fell Swoop had a rare downer, and is still searching for that first Group 1. He’s only had one win in the last year and a half now, and it’s getting harder to find him one.
Music Magnate is the top weight, and was fairly plain in the Canterbury Stakes last start behind Le Romain and Chautuaqua, even allowing for Kerrin McEvoy not heading directly for the outside rail upon straightening.
Big Money has always found the step up to Group 1 level beyond him, and will likely do so again here. He has four soft-track wins to his name, but they were a long time ago and not on really wet tracks.
Heatherly was fractionally disappointing in the Lightning first-up, but was much better suited dropping way back in grade the next start, winning like the good thing she was. She’ll be right on the speed again, like many of these, and the question is whether they will destroy each other’s chances.
A trio of three-year-olds are suiting up for the Galaxy, with one of them, Russian Revolution, the early market-elect. He also happens to be the only first-up horse in the field.
Russian Revolution has four wins from five starts, two of them on soft tracks, and his only loss was when beaten two lengths in the Coolmore Stakes on VRC Derby day. He has claimed the scalp of Astern in his time, and is respected for all the right reasons.
Glenall isn’t quite as credentialled from his three career starts, but why not have a crack at the stumps after his second in the Fireball on the heavy 10. Missrock had a couple of false starts this campaign before finally resuming, and winning first-up over 1100m coming off a VRC Oaks run was a wonderful training performance.
Selections
1. English 2. Redzel 3. Russian Revolution 4. Supido
The Rosehill Guineas over 2000m is the other Group 1 on the Golden Slipper program.
Prized Icon has proven a very consistent Group 1 horse over his 15 start career, claiming a couple of them along the way. He went to Melbourne last start to avoid the wet, running second in the Australian Guineas, so will be hard to back here.
Seaburge ran well in the Australian Guineas too, and the only time he’s been at 2000m was in the Mackinnon when he secured a Group 1 WFA placing. Anaheim put in a huge run down at Flemington too on a day when it was rarely seen for horses to make ground. If he gets through the ground, he is right in it.
So Si Bon and Land of Plenty were also fair in the Australian Guineas, and have flukers’ hopes.
The Randwick Guineas, ludicrously run on the same day as the Australian Guineas, is the other key lead-up.
Inference won the race in the final strides after settling last and taking the widest route home, getting the paint from the outside rail rubbing all over him. It was one of several Tommy Berry gems on the day, but was he flattered?
Comin’ Through went the other way home for third at Randwick, the innermost runner around the turn, but then a couple of lengths in arrears at the post after not finding the best going.
The unlucky runner there was Impavido, who was going at least as well as Inference when building momentum in the straight, until he ran into a wall of rump and could go no further. He picked up well again to attack the line when clear.
Harper’s Choice was sixth in the same race, and a fair run it was down the middle of the track. It’s hard to assess the merits of such runs, but he seems about his right quote.
Sizzling Bullet is the fresh Waller horse on the scene, and can be lined up through Harper’s Choice, who he beat a month ago when they were contesting a benchmark 69.
Gingernuts is the interesting runner, as the Kiwi’s always are at this time of year. He’s coming off wins in the Avondale Guineas and New Zealand Derby, and will have no trouble staying the trip if it becomes a hard slog.
Selections
1. Impavido 2. Anaheim 3. Inference 4. Comin’ Through
Peter Line
Guest
Johnnybulldog did you have a big win?
Johnybulldog
Guest
Well done Pete,great tip...wish I had more on it mate!Only had 5x5 but a nice collect.Cheers.
Tim
Guest
Thanks for the tip, helped me out big time!
Johnybulldog
Guest
Woo hoo!
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
My Country,Our Ivanhowe,Prized Icon,Pariah & Russian Revolution....Going to have a crack at these...Any thoughts gents?
Peter Line
Guest
Hey Cam, I've got one to keep an eye on for tomorrow. If Gold Coast goes ahead (not looking likely at the moment with the weather), Race 6 No.4 Transporter This thing bolted in for its first start on a soft track at Doomben back in late January and paid $86 but since then did nothing (on good tracks). Tomorrow it's looking like it will be at least soft, if not Heavy if it does go ahead. Currently at $26
Cameron Rose
Expert
Gee, tough this week, nothing really I've got my eye on from that perspective. Small bets only on bog tracks, and usually at value. I think Frolic was really overpriced, but I see she's been backed in overnight or this morning.
andrew
Guest
Fri Having a nibble ew on the bris horse too good to refuse in the Newcastle Newmarket. Outgraded last time at G1 WFA level, but drops back to hcp here to limit weight. Big track should suit and likes to get back, with winning form mostly eagle farm not Doomben. Reckon the 2 faves are just a bit vunlnerable with the weights given toppy possibly looking for further now and chetwood not really in good form either run this prep. MV Fri 2 – something the win, triple the place on our lucky omens who is in super form this prep since coming from hong kong. Has been racing well out of his rating band the last 2 runs and performed very well in cups on both occasions. Big drop back in class here to a BM70 with some limited and struggling types engaged. No doubt the drop in distance is a query, hence why he is $11. But always happy to back a swooper over 1600m at MV and he will be strong late and can easily run into a place, and with any luck (tempo wise) win. 3 – punt club has been very consistent in the 955 circuit this summer, and his one win game with lane riding from an inside draw. Has superb gate speed and can use that to advantage in these sort of races. No good thing, but a clear and deserved fave and happy to invest at odds just north of $3. 6 – gone through this race several times and in just struggling to see how santa ana lane does not get a perfect run. plenty of noted backmarkers engaged. Bullrush leads from gate 1. Redlas goes back from 2. It is written goes forward from 3. Santa drawn next either tucks in behind it is written or sits outside bulrush if tempo is slow in 2nd spot. Accounted for bassett comfortably enough first up last autumn prep over 1200 at caul and nothing I have since suggests that gap has narrowed. Santa ran well all runs last autumn and spring in higher grade. But reckon they learned a bit about the horse in that its best suited over 1200m, as it wasn’t quite strong enough late over 1400m, and the body of evidence is there no to confirm this. its fresh run in the spring was super, in a stronger race than this behind redzel and under the louvre. In fact, all its fresh form is good. its only run at MV was a most unlucky run conceding weight to sir bachus and redkirik warrior. Heaps of exposed formlines to work with here and more than happy to back santa ahead of its key rivals under the circumstances of this race. 7 – farson a deserved fave, but wonder whether a few might try and pressure it up front this time. hardham has produced two pretty good run this prep in stronger grade, in fact much stronger grade, and is a half to kings rose and from a good producing family and I expect the 2000m to be something it relishes. Reckon it might sit back from its wide draw, let other nibble away at the fave, and come with the last crack with a sweeping run. well, that’s what im hoping. Ew at $10. 8 – mai thia has come up silly odd at $14. Put together a very consistent prep over early summer and a lot of that form really stood up into genuine sat grade races. She hasn’t had a big spell, and it’s a summer spell, so expecting her to be fit and forward. Jordan childs an underated jockey for mine, and he knows the horse well and rides its well. im actually quite shocked she has gone up such long odds in a BM70, when she already has form to that level and clearly has scope to progress higher (ie, perhaps BM84 or so being her cap). Flem Sat 2- shattering result the other week when theanswermyfriend went under, just recovering. Makes it hard to objectively look at this race. but im trying. And really, theanswer is entitled to be a very short fave here for mine. without dragging myself through it again, it really was a phenomenal run last time taken on all race, the other on pacers dropped out, they ran slashing time, getting closer to lovey’s track record that quite frankly will never get beaten I reckon than most (I think fakwner ran a 1.21.5 or so derby day a few years back), but it doesn happen often. Times can be mis-leading , but I hold firm to the fact that only good horses run fast times. Under this weight scale, he is well suited, except bar flying jess, and I a repeat of his last run wins this. 5 – well, I was all set to make the convincing case you would hear on why $3 was a great bet tosen to beat bart, but now bart it out, its just a matter of lining up for the evens or so. He will win. genuine A-grade, G1, WFA quality horse. 7 – small ew bet at decent odds staviva who has always been well regarded and talented, won his share of race, but still leaves me lingering he has more to offer and to prove, often ran in races too strong when younger, and has bumped into some strong off-season races over the last 18mths too. has trailled well for this, and has good fresh record. Only straight run was behind supido and illustrious lad (so, a geneuine G2 quality level horse, borderline G1). Of course, im never that keen down the straight, but do think it helps has good speed drawn around him in the inside barriers. 8 – small ew play on the old boy jacquinot bay, possibly one of the last of the ex-guy walter horses still going around (zanbagh being another). Won a similar grade of race fresh last prep at flem 1400m and then raced well all through that prep, culimating in some very good runs at G2 1 WFA race, before form tapered off in the nulcueas of the spring carnival. But, he is 3/6 first up. 4/10 over 1400m, and think he is very well graded class wise with 57.5kgs on a 54 limit, dry ground, middle barrier, can roll forward and sit 4th or 5th with the two horses drawn directly inside him get back types (zebrinz and Tarquin). 9 – war legend scored strong win fresh in what was a bonus win for mine, but also showed he has come back very well this prep, not a great deal of depth to this race, and like him out to the 1600m. I don’t think the jump from BM70 to BM80 is beyond him, given formlines through previous prep are around horses who have made similar transitions, and fact that only 4 runners (he is one of them) have a rating over 75 in this anyway. Tried over longer trips last autumn as a 3yo which is fair enough, but expect him to level out over the mile now and can continue his winning ways. No knock portman, but short enogh for mine at back end of a summer prep and whilst down in class loses that weight adv has had in recent runs. War lenged a good bet at $7 I reckon. Syd I’ll have a dabble with G1’s on the card, but hard to be super confident on a heavy 10. Our century should be winning in race 1 for llyod. You are basically getting $3.40 to see if it handles the ground. I always forgive a good horse 1 bad run and reckon you might be pleasantly surprised the odds that end up being offered for hartnell, so ill back him. im a supido man through and through so will be on it in the galaxy. ADL 6 – Cappadocia can win fresh up for stokes/tourner combo and is touted as stakes class horse by stable, as evidenced by timing of its last prep to score debut win at home and then straight to melb for carnival. Can be expected to come back better horse at its 2nd prep and faces no stars here. it should be up near the lead on the tighter parks circuit and hard to run down from an on pace position over the 1000m. $7 on an ew basis seems a good price, even for a 3yo filly taking on older horses. Geel Keen on Pay up Bro in the STPats cup. Small field, but a few stayers will drop out. 3 on pacers in here to there, the new boy and elite tiger. Pay up bro from gate 1 just sits off this trio, and rekcon he is too classy and progressive and powerful for them in the straight. Very good run first up in what was a strong race at Cran over 1000m. step up to 1400m is ideal. tried as a stayer as a 3yo and he ran well, but it wasn’t his go. Last prep, they kept him to shorter trip (bar an understnable go at the cash in an inglis race at caul over 2000m when he failed). But he did win 2nd up 1400m last prep over data point, and then went on to towel up grande rosso. No odds up yet, im hoping for an clanger, as Im keen to back him. even his run on oaks day in an on pacers race was very good form for this at back end of prep. Sun – Y Valley Im with high church in the cup and monkey magic in the last for the daily double. Best: Tosen Stardom, Answermyfriend, Pay Up Bro Each way: War Legend, Santa Ana Lane Best value: Mai Thai
Peter Line
Guest
Hey Cam, What's your best Mud Lark Roughie pick for this weekend?