Sydney made a mockery of predictions they’d slide in 2016, but the season ultimately ended in disappointment after a second grand final defeat in three years.
Can the Swans make good on their unquestioned talent or is the premiership window shutting before their eyes?
Let’s have a look at the list changes made in the off-season.
Additions: Shaun Edwards (Essendon), Oliver Florent, Will Hayward, Jack Maibaum, Darcy Cameron, Ben Ronke, Robbie Fox, Toby Pink (draft)
Subtractions: Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn), Toby Nankervis (Richmond), Ted Richards, Ben McGlynn, Tom Derickx (retired), Xavier Richards, Jack Hiscox, Abe Davis, Kyle Galloway (delisted)
What happened last year?
Sydney were outstanding for much of 2016, winning a club record-equaling 17 games to finish as minor premiers.
An astonishing 11 of the club’s victories came by over six goals, and while their four losses by ten points or fewer had some pointing to a fragility in tight matches, it also means the Swans could have finished with a positively frightening record of 21-1.
They rebounded strongly from a poor showing in the qualifying final to get back to the big dance, but they simply didn’t have it on the day as they fell to the Western Bulldogs by 22 points.
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What’s changed?
The Swans farewelled some loyal servants last offseason, with Ted Richards and Ben McGlynn hanging up the boots. Richards barely played in 2016, but McGlynn’s departure weakens an already thin small-forward department.
Toby Nankervis will likely thrive at Richmond, leading some to criticise Sydney for letting him go, but the reality is the team has quality ruckmen in spades and didn’t have the game time to give him.
Tom Mitchell, on the other hand, is a big loss. The young midfielder was an important cog in Sydney’s fearsome midfield machine – and was also the youngest. His contributions to the contested ball and tackle numbers will be difficult to replace.
What needs to happen in 2017?
As freakish as Lance Franklin can be – playing both as a genuine tall forward or the tallest small forward in history – Sydney need someone else to pick up the slack on the scoreboard this season.
Sam Reid’s return after a year off with injury will give the Swans another tall target up forward, but the Swans need a big year from some of their crumbing forwards if they’re to be more unpredictable up forward.
The fact that Isaac Heeney, Gary Rohan and Tom Papley will all miss the start of the year is a cruel blow, so it may be up for someone like James Rose, George Hewett, Dean Towers, Brandon Jack or draftee Oliver Florent to provide that spark. That may seem like a long list to choose from, but nobody on it has played 50 games.
While Sydney have been the tackling kings of the AFL for as long as John Longmire’s been at the helm, teams were able to give the Swans a taste of their own medicine at times in 2016 with great success.
Despite topping the competition with 78.8 tackles a game last year, the Swans actually conceded slightly more tackles than they dished out at 79 a game. In both losses to Greater Western Sydney last season and the grand final defeat, they somewhat wilted when pitted against their own gameplan.
Longmire must find another way for his charges to play when the tackling becomes a war of attrition.
The verdict
The Swans have been a model of consistency in the AFL for a long time. They’ve suffered seemingly devastating personnel losses before and gone on to have very successful seasons regardless.
2017 will be no different.
Prediction: third