The best book on tennis strategy ever written is called Winning Ugly by Brad Gilbert.
It is advertised as being “mental warfare in tennis”, but at the end of the day what it really amounts to is two things.
1. Staying positive mentally and always believing you can win; and,
2. Finding your opponent’s relative weakness and exploiting it, while maximising your relative strength
By doing this you can beat players who are better than you. It even works, sometimes, against players who are better than you in every single way.
If you play your normal game then odds are, even if you play well, you will lose.
However, if you play in such a way as to maximise your relative strengths and to exploit their relative weaknesses then you have a much better chance of winning, especially if your opponent is having an off day.
Indeed, by maximising your strengths and their weaknesses you can make the opponent have an off day. If a player making errors from their weakest shot then they can get frustrated and lose the match mentally. When the match is lost mentally, it is almost always lost in reality as well. The same is true in rugby, possibly the only sport I have played that matches, or even overtakes tennis in terms of the importance of strategy and game-plan.
The Wallabies’ relative weaknesses are exits from the 22, forwards who cannot front up physically and a propensity for committing penalties.
Generally speaking, the most effective way to beat the Wallabies is by playing pure 10-man rugby, or a hybrid, pinning the Wallabies in their own 22 and then watching the team panic and kicking penalty goes, or scoring tries through set-piece dominance. England did it to great effect in 2016, as did Ireland.
Even the horrific 2016 Springboks scored a win against the Wallabies by going back-to-basics and playing traditional Springboks 10-man rugby.
Argentina, France, Scotland and Wales, all of whom tried to play a more expansive strategy relying less on forward dominance lost to the Wallabies.
The Springboks’ relative weakness are a lack of risk-taking, an inability often fail to rack up an unassailable lead even when dominating the match physically, and an over-propensity to kick away possession.
As such, the way to beat the Springboks isn’t by playing 10-man rugby (for they are usually better than every other team at playing such rugby).
Because their forwards are so powerful and physical, and their set piece usually so good, the way to beat them is through passing the ball through the backs and getting the ball around their often-slow forwards. Until 2016 the Springboks had one of the best defences I have ever seen; especially at defending against the All Blacks.
Thus, an extremely high proportion of tries against the All Blacks are off broken play. If you go back to 2010 and watch the Wallabies’ two wonderful performances against the Springboks at altitude, most of the tries scored was through counterattacking off of poor kicks or dropped balls.
How do you beat the All Blacks? The answer is, not easily.
However, the All Blacks do have some relative weaknesses, and these are:
1. Often pushing the lines of what is legal, thereby committing a lot of penalties, especially when they are frustrated during close matches;
2. They tend to panic when their forwards are overpowered, and commit even more penalties as a result.
The best example of this can be seen in 2009 when Morne Steyn the Springboks beat the All Blacks 31-19 in Durban, in which the two Steyns’ boots kept the All Blacks pinned in their 22, while Morne the goal-kicking robot wracked up 31 points. The Springboks actually succeeded in a 3-0 clean-sweep that year.
Ireland’s victory over the All Blacks in 2016 was another example of a match primarily won by forwards and set-piece dominance plus strong kicking out of hand and for points. Even though Ireland scored a lot of tries that match most were off the back of set piece dominance.
To win a match by, primarily, scoring 3 points rather than 5 or 7 you need to have a fantastic defence, great goal-kickers, a good set-piece and, ideally, some powerful outside backs to keep the All Blacks on their toes. To this end, I suggest the following Lions 23.
1. Jack McGrath
2. Rory Best
3. Tadhg Furlong
4. Maro Itoje
5. Joe Launchbury
6. Peter O’Mahony
7. Sam Warburton
8. Billy Vunipola
9. Conor Murray
10. Jonathan Sexton
11. Liam Williams
12. Owen Farrell
13. Jonathan Joseph
14. George north
15. Stuart Hogg
16. Joe Marler
17. Ken Owens
18. Dan Cole
19. Alun Wyn Jones
20. Sean O’Brien
21. Rhys Webb
22. Robbie Henshaw
23. Elliot Daly
For all this talk about teams having to emulate the All Blacks. Well, this is true, all teams should learn from the successes of better teams. However, they should play to their traditional strengths rather than abandoning them in face of emulating the strategy of New Zealand.
Roger Federer did not reinvent himself as a serve and volleyer in his latter career, despite the calls to do so, now that he can no longer match Djokovic, Nadal and Wawrinka and Murray by slogging from behind the baseline.
Instead, he focused on his relative strengths – serving, volleying and the ability to take the ball early in order to win by playing more aggressively. He has been standing closer to (or inside) the baseline, taking the ball early and coming into the net only when the opportunity presents itself.
The Lions must play to their strengths – set-piece, forwards and goal-kicking – if they want to beat the All Blacks.
CUW
Guest
people think Best cant throw straight anyways i would think the coach will go with a known devil - from wales - as skipper. understandable since this is more serious than a baba team
davSA
Guest
As an aside , Roger Federers mother is South African . He in fact has a home here . Can we claim some credit for helping produce one of the Greatest sportsmen of our time .
davSA
Guest
That is so fantastic Mania and as it should be . Rugby should be a welcoming and open sport. In SA it still remains pretty elitist . Even the best black players are mostly coming through the top elite schools and not through the development programmes. An Ashwin Willemse who had to literally fight his way through the system and make huge sacrifices get to top flight rugby ( read Jake Whites autobiography ) are a very rare breed. Until SA rugby looks at NZ and says yes we truly want to emulate you to claim our rightful place as a feared and respected rugby nation , we will continue to literally flounder in the dark. ..Can it be done ? For heaven sakes we have faced and overcome massively bigger challenges than that . Rugby remains just a sport it isn't life or death.
Riccardo
Guest
Interesting article Fionn. Great analogy too; I'm a Federer fan from way back. He is the purest tennis player to play the game for mine and I have relished his resurgence and attainment of another major. I would argue that I've never seen him volley as often as he has or is since taking on Edberg, a brilliant serve-vollyer. I think you're right to an extent with reference to your plan to beat the All Blacks; they remain susceptible as always. It's the execution level required from the opposition for 80 minutes that's often daunting, even if the All Blacks aren't at their best. Wales got in behind them at Eden Park early on last year while the All Blacks were sub-standard with the lines being run by Williams, in particular, causing the back three plenty of issues. But the All Blacks ground their way back, even though they remained pretty much sub-par. The All Blacks struggled at times against the Welsh the whole tour with Wales achieving close to parity at the half-time whistle only to lift a gear in the 2nd half. But where the Lions have an advantage the Welsh didn't is their bench. The All Blacks bench has become a strategic weapon and for the Lions to have a realistic chance the management of their bench is a priority element amongst many that needs to be right on the day. They will also have to have a great kicking game that's well chased, robust 1st up defense, excellent recycling with celerity (a prime area to upset All Black rhythm), equally slow compromised ball when the Blackness is in possession, a strong/legal driving maul and all of this off the pack of near-perfect set-piece execution. But the Lions will also have to overcome any injury issues building up to the Tests and develop cohesion (you would hope their selectors are smart enough to pick actual combinations - think Connor/Sexton). They will also need to be well lead, comprehensively, by a solid group so they can adapt when plans go awry. The All Blacks will have to do all this as well of course but they are at home, have established pairings and systems and... they're the All Blacks...
Riccardo
Guest
O'Brien may be versatile from the pine too; plays both sides
KiwiHaydn
Guest
In theory, the best way to beat the All Blacks is: 1) Catch them on their once a season off day. 2) Collectively play the best game of rugby your side has ever played. Simple!
mania
Guest
davSA - totally agree. i dont like have non NZ coaches in NZ because they dont understand the unwritten rule that all rugby in NZ is for the good of the ABs. when nucifora was here he quickly lost control of the blues as he didnt understand that mantra. the reason ABs are such a success is because rugby is a family effort in NZ. everyone gets involved and al the volunteers treat each kid coming through the ranks as family.
mania
Guest
the solution is easy beating the ABs. just make sure you have a straight defensive line and make all your first up tackles. the execution is something else all together though
buddy boy
Guest
You want to beat the all blacks ,easy, clone George Gregan
Aucklandlaurie
Guest
Interesting article, No mention of any All Blacks defeats in New Zealand. I note that the team put up by Fionn has a string irish flavour, Ireland a country who were beaten on their home soil by an All Black team who did it by playing ugly. 3 tries to none.
Bobbo7
Guest
True Jacko. There is virtually no drop in quality with many of the AB's reserves. The tough thing for opposition teams with the whole play to your strength, heighten their weakness thing is that the AB's have few weaknesses and they are so well coached.
Sam Starr
Guest
If the wallabies are gonna have any chance of beating the ABs this year our winning ratio against there Super Teams will have to improve big time. ATM it's crap
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Warburton or Best, mate. Replace AWJ with any of the other 100 world-class locks the Lions have.. Lawes, Toner, Gray, etc...
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Except for guys like Milner-Skudder, right :P?
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Cam, the surface of the Aussie Open didn't actually change, it remained the same plexi-cushion (plexi pave + a layer of gel to make it softer on your knees - it has been this way since 2008). Additionally, despite people talking about how much faster it was allegedly playing the tests done by the Australian Open said that it was still in the medium to fast range, same as every other year. I found this fascinating as the commentators wouldn't shut up about how quickly it was playing. In reality it was marginally, marginally faster. Fascinating, isn't it?
Russell Neville
Roar Rookie
A super post Old Bugger, I can't wait for the series. An interesting point about the 'ABs taking any opportunity to try attacking raids frequently and from anywhere, can leave their defences open". I haven't seen too much of that and their cover defence and ability to nip opposition counter raids in the bud is uncanny. Apart from the obvious and traditional counter attacking AB style, I can see the following scenario developing in the series. AB forwards with their passing skills putting players into gaps and over the gain line then quick ruck ball and Arron Smith (who I see as the greatest 9 I have seen in my 40 years of watching rugby) setting up all sorts of damage with his pin -point bullet passes. Given that my Wallabies are not looking like threatening anytime soon, I hope our cousins from across the ditch send the Lions packing!!
davSA
Guest
Emulate the AB's on field game for success ? No says Jake White . An Australian or a South African etc. cant play like the Kiwi's because they aren't Kiwis . Play to your historical strengths. Embrace your own unique style .......Emulate the AB's off the field . Absolutely yes . IN SA , Aus. , England , France , wherever rugby is played nobody has such a clear focus in terms of making the National side the best around than NZ . Possibly In the case of Aus and SA the distances between franchises mitigates against them cooperating on the same level as in NZ . In SA,s case there are significant cultural differences between provinces as well that still leads to mistrust of one another. In the case of the UK and France , private ownership of clubs would make the NZ type of synergy between teams impossible . The only way to come close to the NZ formula is to at least get all coaches on the same page and up to speed . But even here NZ have the edge over all. I mean take a guy like John Plumtree , forward coach of the Canes. He can easily coach a test side on his own with competence. Apart from Ackerman who is leaving anyway , SA does not have a single head coach up to test level to better Plumtree. So I'm afraid unless all other teams can pull a rabbit out the hat New Zealands dominance on the rugby field is set to continue for a long time.
Cam
Guest
Just to dwell on Federer's lack of dominance in the last few years - often it is his backhand that is cited - I think it might be worth noting that the surface changed to a plexi-pave surface, during which the ball sat up and favoured the heavy hitters. Fed talked about this prior to the Aus open triumph - just an interesting adjunct to your comments.
Highlander
Guest
Works for the French obviously
Tim Reynolds
Guest
There are two elements in the AB/Lions equation that are very relevant but little mention has been made of them. The Lions have to play the 5 Super rugby teams and the Maori XV, and these will all be physically and mentally challenging. There will be injuries suffered and losses will be bad for morale. Also the Lions are a composite team, and they still don't know the make-up with a few weeks to go. The ABs have been together for years, and should have much better team co-ordination and confidence in each other. Of course several teams can beat the ABs on the right day, but to imply that the Lions are something like a 50/50 proposition is to ignore past and present history to a fanciful degree.