It’s only March, and the tennis season is an 11-month grind, but something unfathomable is building: Roger Federer is creeping, nay, charging, up to the number one slot.
Here’s a breakdown of the current standings for the ATP race, which tallies points from January 1.
(Note: the rankings account for points throughout the last 52 weeks.)
Roger Federer – 3045 points
Rafael Nadal – 1635
Stan Wawrinka – 1410
Grigor Dimitrov – 1355
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – 1255
Dominic Thiem – 1130
Pablo Carreno Busta – 975
David Goffin – 965
Jack Sock – 950
Andy Murray – 840
As for Novak Djokovic, his 475 points is good for 18th. Who would have thought that come April, the juggernaut that is Djokovic would be languishing in 18th! I would have been surprised had he been eighth, or fourth.
The Serb came to Miami as the defending champion and didn’t even hit a ball, pulling out with an elbow injury. This will only see him drop further.
On the other hand, Federer came to Miami having picked up 1000 extra points from Indian Wells (he didn’t play last year due to knee surgery, and won this year’s edition), is now racking up more points, having not played Miami last year either (virus) but moving into the fourth round at the time of writing.
Federer himself was asked of this possibility post-Indian Wells, but he quickly dismissed the idea given his light tournament schedule this year.
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I’m sure before the Australian Open, Federer wouldn’t have thought No.1 was remotely possible, given Murray and Djokovic’s sheer dominance throughout the entire year, but we’re coming up to our quarterly assessment and Federer is absolutely smashing it.
He has a light clay season ahead, only committing to two Masters 1000s and the French Open, but even there he barely has any points to defend. A Wimbledon semi-final and some lead-in grass tournaments will be the most he has to defend for the rest of the year. If he stays healthy, which is his priority, he has to be seen as a favourite for Wimbledon given his form and confidence.
Contrary to this is the huge swathe of points Djokovic and Murray must defend for the remainder of the year.
Murray has to defend the following points (April through to December):
Monte-Carlo (semi-finals) 360 points
Madrid (final) 600 points
Rome (champion) 1000 points
French Open (final) 1200 points
Queen’s (champion) 500 points
Wimbledon (champion) 2000 points
Cincinnati (final) 600 points
US Open (quarter-final) 360 points
Beijing (champion) 500 points
Shanghai (champion) 1000 points
Vienna (champion) 500 points
Paris (champion) 1000 points
ATP World Tour Finals (champion) 1500 points
11,120 to defend.
What. A. Season. Writing these numbers was just staggering, the Scott barely losing a match post-April. To do this again, given his current form and injury, is nearly impossible.
Here are the points Djokovic must defend (April through December):
Monte-Carlo (second round) 10 points
Madrid (champion) 1000 points
Rome (finalist) 600 points
French Open (champion) 2000 points
Wimbledon (third round) 90 points
Toronto (champion) 1000 points
US Open (final) 1200 points
Shanghai (semi-final) 360 points
Paris (quarter-final) 180 points
ATP World Tour Finals (finalist) 1000 points
7440 to defend.
Not as impressive as Murray’s back-end, but a hell of a season. Keep in mind Djokovic has already lost a huge number of points after stumbling at the second-hurdle of his Australian Open defence (lost to qualifier Denis Istoman), losing to Nick Kyrgios in the Indian Wells fourth round, and pulling out of Miami as the defending champion.
Compare this to the points Roger must defend from April through to December:
Monte-Carlo (quarter-final) 180 points
Rome (third round) 90 points
Stuttgart (semi-final) 90 points
Halle (semi-final) 180 points
Wimbledon (semi-final) 720 points
1260 to defend.
Paltry, given his form.
After Wimbledon is the US hardcourt season, culminating in the US Open, where Federer is a five-time champion and seven-time finalist (most recently in 2015). He enjoys these conditions almost as much as grass and if he is healthy he should rack up a good deal of points.
The season has a brief swing in Asia before finishing with the European indoor events and the World Tour Finals in London. All of these tournaments suit Federer’s game.
The biggest factor could be these next two months on clay; his least favourite surface and the most physically demanding. He won’t risk any twinge or niggle during this phase, with Wimbledon just around the corner. I can guarantee you come January 1 each year, Federer’s number one goal is to win Wimbledon, the Holy Grail of tennis.
It has been an incredible comeback already, winning the Australian Open and also Indian Wells (defeating his nemesis, Rafael Nadal, in both), but you sense that the hunger only grows for a man accustomed to breaking records and creating new ones virtually every year he plays.
With his improved backhand and carefree ‘just happy to be playing’ attitude, Federer has found the elixir of excellence. As he continues to win the pressure will mount; the comeback excuse waining in believability, it will be counteracted with that most precious of sporting potions: confidence.
If he gets there, which would probably come no sooner than November, it would be Christmas come early for tennis, for sport. To see such a titan, once withering gracefully into retirement, storm back to clutch number one for a fourth time in his career would only elevate him further from his already drifting rivals.
Head down, Roger, the comeback has taken on a new criterion for success.
Michael Davies
Guest
I think Nadal is going to get the number one slot very soon and will do well on the hard courts with virtually no points to defend.
Bandy
Roar Guru
also, madrid is not nearly as exhausting as a monte carlo with its altitude and quick conditions.
Bandy
Roar Guru
now? perhaps not, post wimbledon if he is there he most definitely will. Athletes of his calibre are incredibly competitive no matter what they say to media - regaining world number 1 is unequivocally the hardest thing in tennis, harder than winning a slam. It would be a massive feather in his cap to take number 1 with Djok/Rafa/Murray all 5 years his junior.
Bandy
Roar Guru
The more it becomes possible the more he will likely take wild cards into extra events towards the end of the year, IMO.
clipper
Guest
Yes, agree, but by limiting your tournaments you limit the number of early exits you can have before the ratings are affected. The clay court season will play a big part in deciding this - if Federer can do well, he may be on his way, but they are more exhausting, so it's understandable he's only doing 2 and the FO.
express34texas
Guest
Actually looks very likely given what we've seen through the first 3 months of the year, but he shouldn't be focused on becoming #1 unless maybe if it becomes very close. Fed's easily the best player in the world right now. He needs to focus on being fresh, staying healthy, and peaking at the GS. Murray/Djoker/Nadal will all have to play a lot and do extremely well themselves have a chance at #1 by the end of the year. Fed will play 2 clay Masters, then the FO. Halle and Wimby for grass season. Montrea/Cincy/USO probably, then likely 3 tourneys after USO but before year-end finals, I'm guessing. That's still lots of tourneys and they're big tourneys to get lots of points. I'd say a very conservative prediction for Fed would be to have around 8,000 points before the year-end final if he stays healthy, which seems quite low given he could have over 4,000 on the year if he wins Miami. Murray would struggle to reach 8,000 even if healthy. Djoker/Nadal could get there, depending on how Nadal does on clay.
Mike Anger
Guest
Right now Roger could not GAF about rankings. Only one thing he's after: grand slam titles.
Bandy
Roar Guru
Yes massive task indeed, but Murray's back end is exhausting, he finished with beijing, shanghai, vienna, paris and london wins all in a row! That is nearly impossible for him to replicate. Federer post wimbledon will be adding points with every match he plays - Murray will be protected right through till October even with a poor french/wimby given this finish to the season. Remember not every tournament counts - its only the four slams, your best 8 masters and then 6 500's/250s. Already he has a slam, a masters (at least quarter in miami) and you would have to think if he is healthy a solid US masters showing in july/august. 250/500 will be stuttgart/halle/basel best chances.
clipper
Guest
It's possible, but a massive task considering he's not playing that many tournaments and relies on Andy and Novak not doing that well. But what a story that would be - would eclipse the AO title this year.
Hutchoman
Roar Pro
Possibility to be 4th in the rankings at the end of Miami and not much more than a free ride in terms of points all the way to Wimbledon. Anything like a good showing in the clay court season and the French and he could be hitting Wimbledon ranked 3. Djokovic and Murray will be looking over their shoulders from that point, especially if Federer defends/improves his Wimbledon points.
BrainsTrust
Guest
Ande Murray has an injured elbow at the moment, Djokovic is going to be playing Davis cup so he is on the mend. IF Murray and Djokovic keep getting injured anyone the points total for being no 1 will be low enough. Federer could be back at no 1, even Kyrgios could have a shot.