This season’s MVP race has been one of the toughest to call in recent memory. In reality, there are four candidates who in any other year would be a certainty for the NBA’s most prestigious award.
Russell Westbrook is on pace to be the first player in over 50 years to average a triple-double over the course of an entire season.
James Harden has put up similarly gaudy numbers, on a team that have been one of the NBA’s pleasant surprises.
LeBron James is putting up career highs in rebounds and assists, which is amazing when you consider his outstanding 14-year career.
Finally, Kawhi Leonard has been an absolute monster on both ends of the floor, developing into a premier scorer to go with his standout defence.
Voters certainly have a difficult decision to make and whatever the outcome there will be indignation from some.
The Cavaliers’ struggles throughout March have probably taken James out of the running. LeBron is the best player in the league, but all too often since the All Star break, The King has looked more interested in getting ready for the playoffs.
While I’m sure LeBron would love a fifth MVP to move level with Michael Jordan, making a deep playoff run is infinitely more important.
The voters’ tendency to reward offensive excellence over standout defence also means that Kawhi Leonard will in all likelihood miss out too. If you look at the last 15 years of MVP winners, the only true two-way players to win are LeBron, Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan, whereas offensive powerhouses such as Steph Curry, Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki have dominated recent years.
This leaves us with two remaining contenders, and boy is it difficult to separate the two.
Westbrook is having one of the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the league – the records just keep on tumbling.
He has the highest scoring triple-double ever, the first triple-double without missing a shot or free throw, and he is leading the league in scoring. By any measure, that is a truly outstanding season.
Harden is not far behind on the stats front, leading the league in assists, is second behind Westbrook in scoring, and has put up two 50-point triple-doubles of his own, including a simply insane 53 point, 16 rebound, 17 assist effort against the New York Knicks.
On a purely statistical basis, it is impossible to separate them. Westbrook’s extra rebounds and points are cancelled out by Harden’s assists and slightly better scoring efficiency.
The argument that Westbrook should win simply because he is going to achieve something that hasn’t been achieved in 50 years is also flawed. If you look at the amount of triple-doubles achieved in each of the last three seasons, the numbers have swollen massively. In 2014-15 we had just 44, the season after 75, and this year we have had a mind-boggling 108, before the season has even finished.
While still an impressive feat, achieving a triple-double isn’t the white whale it used to be. The pace of the NBA has increased massively, meaning more possessions per game and more chances to score, assist and rebound at a higher rate.
This is not to demean Westbrook’s season, but merely to put it in its proper context. I would not be surprised to see many more players over the coming years threaten to average the fabled triple-double.
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So how do you split them? It comes down to two things: winning and watchability, and in both those categories, Harden has the edge.
He is leading a team without another superstar to a 50-win season and a top seed in the uber-competitive Western Conference. While Westbrook has dragged his Thunder squad into the playoffs, there is little suggestion his team can make it past the first round. This fact should matter in the final reckoning.
The other thing to remember is that basketball should be fun – it is okay to prefer a player simply because you like watching them more – and Harden has been the most fun to watch this season. Watching him bisect defences in Mike D’Antoni’s high-paced offence has been a joy and will always trump Westbrook’s more physical play.
The real MVP of the league is James Harden.
Brad Holst
Guest
Stop the Flop! There's no argument that Floppy McHarden is a supremely gifted athlete (with stats to prove it) who drives the success of the Rockets, but OMG his constant flailing histrionic flops in pursuit of cheap fouls makes it almost impossible for me to watch him play. I'm embarrassed for the the officials that keep rewarding those flops by repeatedly sending him to the charity line.
Nicholas Nakos
Roar Guru
James Harden has had a marvellous season, but I had the Thunder missing the playoffs this season. The fact that they are there is solely down to one player. When the second best player on your team is Steven Adams then you're usually going to be in a lot of trouble most nights. Westbrook has played phenomenally so consistently this season its not funny. The Rockets play a completely different game style to the Thunder, one in which teams defensive systems are stretched thin due to the Rockets 3 point shooting. I look forward to watching these 2 teams battle in the first round of the playoffs.
JGK
Roar Guru
Westbrook has now made the 6 assists in the current game which guarantees him the triple double season.
express34texas
Guest
Mushi, where do you find these +/- stats, just wondering? Thomas isn't good defensively, no denying that. But, one advanced stat is going to be able to necessarily tell us that. If 101 guys are better than him defensively who never play, that doesn't make sense at all.
mushi
Guest
That's becuase thomas is dead last amongst every single NBA player for adjusted +/- on Defense. Which is the problem with his height. Literally it ranks 460 players (and remember only 360 guys actually dress) higher than him so 101 guys not able to get a game are obejctively better on D than him. You can't be MVP if you're the worst player in (or in some cases out!) of the league on that end.
express34texas
Guest
Thomas is having a nice season, but he should get barely any votes. RW, KD, Harden, Leonard, Curry, and James are all clearly better. MVP votes only go to 5th place. He looks like a fringe top 10 player to me this season, but still might have trouble making even 3rd team all-nba. Got to have RW, Harden, and Curry ahead of him. Then there's Wall, Thompson, and Derozan. DeRozan/Thomas are basically the same player, except DeRozan is nearly a foot taller. I'll take the size. Thompson would be scoring 25ppg+ on pretty much any other team, he's also tall for a guard(6-7), and plays excellent defense.
express34texas
Guest
It wasn't in 1962 when Oscar finished 3rd in MVP despite averaging a triple-double, and Wilt's 50/25 season saw him finish 2nd. Harden's a much more efficient than RW, which might not mean much, but just saying.
JGK
Roar Guru
Maybe Thomas gets the pound for pound MVP.
The Doc
Roar Guru
Nice read. Hard to go past Russell as everyone on this thread has said. The numbers tell the story and as you well know - number never lie. No one has had to carry his team as much as Russell Westbrook. There is 1 smokey that you have left out - Isaiah Thomas from Boston. He is averaging 29.1 peg, 6 assists pg and 3 rebounds. Obviously won't win it as his number are not near enough to Russells or Hardens but worth a mention in the conversation given his outstanding season thus far.
JGK
Roar Guru
A few years ago (2012), in Major League Baseball, Miguel Cabrera acheived the triple crown of highest batting average, most RBIs and most HRs which hadn't been done since the 60s. Meanwhile Mike Trout had a similarly unbelievable season and could add in golden glove level fielding and outstanding baserunning stats and dominated what the baseball statos refer to as the WAR - Wins Above Replacement. Cabrera won the MVP convincingly because of the rareness of his achievement. I see the NBA MVP going the same way. Regardless of the argument for Harden - averaging a triple double is an automatic MVP.
Nate
Guest
Interesting comment you make Steve. The ESPN talking heads have been doing that to themselves all season, try to make a case for one and inadvertantly make a case for the other. I agree that in an ideal world we have dual MVP's but as with Highlander, there can be only one. Off with his head Russell!
steve
Guest
You actually answered why Russell Westbrook should be the MVP. He has simply dragged his team to the play offs on the back of his outstanding, and llikely new record averaging a triple double season in the process. OKC would be sitting at the foot of the NBA without Westbrook's performances. It will be a travesty for him to miss it while also acknowledging James hardens very good season. In a perfect world, it gets shared between them.
Nate
Guest
You point out how many more triple doubles there have been this year, without acknowledging that Westbrook is a HUGE part of the reason for that jump. Take out his 41 this year and its mid 60s.
mushi
Guest
But if you lined up 16 coaches and said you can pick a side and you get the exact performance from them as this past regular season it's probably a different answer right?
McNaulty
Guest
Westbrook has just broken the unbreakable record for most triple doubles in a season and there is a month to go. He almost has an many triple doubles this season as Lebron has in his career. Its not going to be close.
Brian
Guest
If you lined up the 16 playoff coaches and said your career depends on winning the playoffs all NBA players are available lets have a draft. I bet you 16 out of 16 if given first pick go LeBron. Sure people are sick of him, but that is a different issue. The best Basketball player is still Lebron.