As the ultimate series looms, Warren Gatland shows his flaws.
The task is huge. Only once have the Lions won a series in New Zealand. The All Blacks have not lost a home Test since 2009.
They have not lost at Eden Park since 1994. Two of the Tests will be played at the Eden Park cauldron. Eden Park is often referred to as the spiritual home for the All Blacks. It’s the main reason I remain guarded about a new venue on the waterfront in Auckland.
I would like to think the All Blacks will have their say in this matter, and they will play in Auckland at the ground they choose.
Steve Hansen said this about Warren Gatland, and the conservative game plan he always adheres to.
“I’ve never seen him do anything else other than that. I guess we need to be prepared for what we normally get and prepare for something different as well … he’s done most of his coaching up north and has a particular style he likes which works for him up there using big ball carriers up front, big mid-fielders to carry.”
(AAP Image/Paul Miller)
As an All Black coach, it’s nice to know what’s coming. The Rugby World Cup final 2015 had a similar theme. The All Blacks knew what to expect. They were open to some changes but they never really came. The same format was applied by Michael Cheika. The Pooper twist was played yet again.
The All Blacks were prepared for this, and then the All Blacks played a different structure from their previous matches. What came at Australia was a new wave. Australia hurried and scampered to try and contain the new rhythm. What came at them was different to what they were expecting, and it showed. Australia’s game became reactive and they were in survival mode.
What strikes me about Warren Gatland is a mindset that’s not quite in the zone. He also has a captain who normally would struggle to make the starting line-up. But a mindset that is off slightly will make these calls.
Warren Gatland has aspirations to be an All Black coach. He also wanted to be the Chiefs head coach and was offered the position after the Rugby World Cup 2011. He was offered less than what he earned when he coached Waikato. He said it wasn’t about the money, and if they offered him an extra $15,000 he would have signed. New Zealand rugby didn’t budge. Interesting.
All this makes it intriguing. He could never quite nail a Super coach role and he now returns with a desire to be an All Black coach. I just wonder if his focus is where it should be.
Gatland will say it is. I believe unconsciously he’ll be in two minds and that will cause separations in his game and affect his results. I do know Steve Hansen is focused.
He understands simplicity. Gatland has also said regarding his time away in the Northern hemisphere “how far and isolated New Zealand is and from the world stage and you realise that we are quite insignificant in terms of how we affect, the world, the finances, or politics of the world”.
It’s a subtle dig and it shows me his conflict with New Zealand. He loves the country, his birthplace and he’s coming back to try and conquer them, and perhaps show them how right he is. It’s like a feigned type of justice that he pursues.
(Mike Egerton/PA Wire)
I know he has a mainstream goal but this nagging underlying attitude will haunt him, even if it is unconscious. The Northern hemisphere gave him so much that little New Zealand refused to offer and now he goes back to where his heart wants to be. I would call it mixed emotions, and some baggage and that is why I believe Steve Hansen will be more focused.
Gatland also said this about the haka “The best person I ever saw who rose to the challenge was Lawrence Dallaglio. The bigger the occasion, the more he was ‘bring it on’ you are facing the haka, looking into someone’s eye and saying, ‘bring it on’
Those words show me a weakness in Gatland. He’s looking for a fight. He’s saying ‘bring it on.’ There are enough challenges ahead without stirring the energy and making it more potent. I’m sure Gatland thinks he’s doing it correctly and to fight is the honorable thing.
Instead, he could be at one with the challenge, and be with his own power and express that, and be free mentally. It’s a subtle change but it makes a big difference.
The Lions are showing cracks.
Jokerman
Roar Guru
Hey Dave with the Irish the stars were aligned for them. They are as good as England, but no one really thought that at the time. A neutral ground with a kiwi coach in Chicago where the All Blacks may have been slightly in tourist mode. 18 wins in a row and they were expected to win by 20 points against a team that had never beaten them. I wouldn't call it over confidence but it did sneak up on the All Blacks and all these factors including a tough penalty count on the day, and a couple of tries that weren't even seen by the eye! The Lions are different. There is no surprise element. It is a one in 12-year event. It's like a world cup. I believe the All Blacks will be happy if they win by seven points in each game, and that could happen. They could lose if they're off. The Lions are too good an opponent to be taken lightly. I just know the All Blacks will be in the best mental/heart state. It's the best vs the best really.
davSA
Guest
I have no doubt about it though Jokerman . The only ones who can beat the All Blacks is themselves really . I'm gonna throw this out there .... When NZ lost to Ireland in Chicago and taking nothing away from the Irish , was this not possibly through a dash of "Overconfidence " . I mean they really are by some distance the better side.
Jokerman
Roar Guru
Some truth amongst the rabble, Zero Gain! If you can only switch the pieces around and know the words are there but not in the right order...but you can do the opposite and that will help. The mana is there for the All Blacks, and the weaknesses of the others remain and that is how it is. The results show this to a degree huh? The All Blacks always win so something is being captured, something high and great. When the opposition have deep disdain towards this that lowers their frequency, but they don't really know it. Shades of mana get removed but they also apply some toxic energy to their mind which doesn't help with creating their success. It's hardly mindless, it's a mind full and it can make it worst because they're unaware. And the same old patterns can continue... A way to deal with a weakness is to do the opposite of what it is. Simple really.
Jokerman
Roar Guru
No need to worry there, Dav. I'm sure the All Blacks don't get their confidence from the public. New Zealand is determined and would like to win the series, and ideally 3-0. The opposition is respected but the All Blacks haven't lost at Eden Park since 1994. They haven't lost at home in eight years. They are current back to back RWC holders. All that gives confidence. The series hasn't been played so it is only the forecast that lays ahead. But we can come back after the series and we can see what the result will be. I'm feeling it will be 3-0. The All Blacks will respect their opposition. They always do. There will be no complacency (it's simply absurd to believe there would be any). The All Blacks are so determined to win this, and they will.
Jokerman
Roar Guru
Well said, Ethan :)
davSA
Guest
No I was not referring to you at all taylorman . It was a statement of generality . What I meant was once the general consensus becomes , "We are gonna murder these bums " the press , the talk on the streets all begin to affect the mindset of the players . History is littered with sporting corpses having succumbed to overconfidence. My take from so many of the postings on The Roar is that the consensus from many New Zealanders is a one sided thrashing . I stand by my perspective and simply warned against the dangers of it. Cheers !
Old Bugger
Guest
Paul Yep, I share your concerns also but, there's still a lot of water to pass under this bridge and the NZRU, may have a new selection criteria - fingers x-ed aye!! With regards to Rennie's choice - I'd like to believe that Rennie contacted Cotter and got the low-down about Scotland's club scene - as simple as that really. But, another slant could be that Glasgow, was probably the only club that would be on the lookout for a new coach once Townsend, departed for the national job, to replace VC. At any rate, I think DR's choice is rather inspiring. He leaves the Chiefs and joins, the Warriors......
Derm
Roar Guru
Err.... it's unlikely that my parents would be accompanying me anywhere, Joker. There are people older than you on this forum in case you hadn't noticed, so I've no idea what "stardust, starchid, the wicked witch" refers to. Peruse a few Kiwi news or blog sites and you will find excitable young fellas like yourself predicting clean sweeps. Us old timers on here are a bit more grounded in our wishful thinking. :)
Jokerman
Roar Guru
Please excuse the small typo. I lost my net connection during the edit. I'm at a place called Neo cafe...hmm but I'm sure this ain't The Matrix :)
Jokerman
Roar Guru
A clean sweep and all ten, Poth Ale! Wow. This must be coming from a kiwi friend of yours? Whatever you do not do not take his advice and place any bets. If you do, please take your parents with you. You tell that kiwi friend of yours ...which I suspect could be imaginary; that he or stardust, starchid, the wicked witch or whatever his name is has got it wrong!!
PaulRollup
Guest
Unfortunately, if Steve Tew remains NZRFU boss, Dave won't get the job he deserves; Gatland certainly doesn't deserve it!!! I still can't understand why Dave accepted Glasgow (a winning combination) for his OE. Where he specializes is recruiting and in Glasgow you are stuck with 1 to 3 yr contracts?$!@#
Ben
Guest
Hiring an import? Hansen and Henry were hired after coaching Wales. Getting old? Hes only 53!
taylorman
Guest
Nice, now imagine how good that would have felt without the dripping irony...try it. :-)
taylorman
Guest
The players themselves? Can't see that happening. They've learned to be pretty grounded when it comes to these sort of things. If not, who? Fans? You'll get every option under the sun from fans, win them all, lose them all, as you've mentioned I've seen some pretty scattered views.
Zero Gain
Guest
"Every non-Kiwi and every opponent has a weakness. Every Kiwi has Mana." There you go, JMan, I have written all of your articles for you.
Derm
Roar Guru
He said beware of arrogance NZ. Not that you personally were arrogant, Tman.
Derm
Roar Guru
Yep Tman - that matches the more moderate NZ fan assessment.
taylorman
Guest
I just don't see it as arrogance Davsa. The statistics heavily support an easy series win, the form of the top 100 or so NZ players supports the fact that they're playing well. I get we could lose but to not be confident when practically all the pointers suggest an easy win is illogical. After 11 series out of 12, nine of the last ten test wins, an unbeaten home run of 45 tests in 8 years, Super sides that have won 30 from 31 foreign matches this year, at what point do we get to say gee, I'm confident, without being called arrogant.
taylorman
Guest
Don't think many were suggesting ten wins Poth, no way that'll happen. I've always thought it would be 3-0 in the series. That's simply based on historical results, recent NZ form and their obvious eagerness to be involved in this series looking at the Super rugby efforts. The nature of that I believe will be a large score in the third test, one or possibly but doubtfully two close matches. Two Super wins...Blues and Saders. I think Lions will win the rest, they're very strong traditionally against non test sides. The intinerary, potential for injury, the Lions concept of team at short notice, Gatland as a predictable coach and Eden park. All factors that will likely conspire against the Lions. NZs drawbacks are several key injuries, something Hansen isn't worried about, and the midfield. That's it.
DavSA
Guest
Beware of arrogance Nz