The scorelines and the margins and the fact that 60 per cent of The Roar‘s tipping panel picked perfect rounds tells us it was a pretty predictable Round 11. And even those of us unfortunate enough to get a tip wrong will concede it wasn’t that surprising.
When seven of the eight games featured teams with a distinct table position advantage over their opponents, it wasn’t difficult to see it coming. And the point here is that over the remaining six rounds between now and the finals, we’re going to see more of these predictable rounds.
The reason for this is simple: the top eight is set already.
As it stands after the completion of Round 11, there’s now a two-win and eight-point gap between the top eight sides and Blues and Jaguares, the next best sides trailing.
And yes, by ‘top eight’ I mean the eight teams in playoff positions. Regardless of your thoughts on the conference system, no amount of debate is going to change the format this season.
The four conference winners and four wildcard qualifiers will take part in the playoffs, and for the purpose of this exercise will be referred to as the top eight. And they’ve opened up a gap. There is, of course, one exception to this, but I’ll come back to the Australian conference shortly.
In New Zealand, the Crusaders, Chiefs and Hurricanes standout as genuine contenders for the title.
The Crusaders remain unbeaten, and if they haven’t lost a game by now, it makes you wonder if they’ll drop one at all. The Chiefs and Hurricanes are probably one step behind them, but that probably won’t matter in the grand scheme of things, because if we’ve learnt one thing about the New Zealand sides over the last few seasons it’s that they can beat anyone, anywhere, including themselves.
(AP Photo/Mark Baker)
The Highlanders are currently very up and down, but have two distinct advantages over the Blues – two wins and six points.
The wins part of the equation is particularly important, because if the Blues managed to close the points gap, the number of wins is the first step in the tie-breaking process. The Blues don’t have a bad run home, but neither do the Highlanders, and neither side has to worry about being overtaken by the next-best Australian side, with the Waratahs three wins behind the Blues.
In Africa 1, the Stormers, despite four straight losses, sit three wins and 12 points clear of the Bulls, who, frankly, wouldn’t look out of place in the Australian conference. The Stormers have a good run home, too, and will quite likely finish the season further ahead again.
The Lions are ten points clear of the Sharks in Africa 2, and to me, loom as the only team capable of beating one of the New Zealand sides in the final. They’re playing better than they were this time last year and have shown this campaign that winning away from home is something they’ve very capable of.
They’re aided by both a good run home and the very patchy form of the Sharks, and if the Crusaders’ unbeaten run does come to an end, you couldn’t rule out the prospect of the Lions finishing on top overall. They’re capable of winning a final in New Zealand this season, but if they earn an Ellis Park final, they’ll really take some beating.
The Sharks, for all their faults and patchy form, remain two wins clear of the Jaguares; their only mathematical challenger for the one African wildcard spot.
And that brings us to Australia.
Current form suggests that the conference winner is going to be the least worst of the five teams. I said last week that it comes down to the Waratahs or the Brumbies, and nothing over the weekend has changed my mind.
And that’s not because the Waratahs were great; they were far from it. But the Reds could only run with the Chiefs for about 35 minutes, the Force were as mediocre as all of the Sharks bar Curwin Bosch, and the Rebels never looked like troubling the Lions.
The Waratahs would need to win every game from here. The Brumbies need to do the same to have any hope of being competitive in the playoffs, but the Waratahs’ results will determine whether the Brumbies need to win every game to top the conference.
The teams are equal on wins, but the Brumbies hold a significantly better for-and-against record (which is the second tie-breaker step), and the current four-point advantage might just be enough to carry them all the way through to the playoffs.
Kirky
Roar Rookie
Council! Yep I agree, Armand Van Zyl was a very good contributor, but although he's a South African right through, he does have Kiwi affiliations as his Mum.is a Kiwi! Love to see him back on here!
Kirky
Roar Rookie
Biltongbek - Agree with your assumptions mate re the Bulls, boy they we're hard to watch last weekend ! The Lions as you say are really the only SA, team playing the game. ~ What do you reckon about the Kings mate? A couple of games I've seen them play, they went pretty well, better than the Bulls or Sharks in my opinion! You're right also about there being not much difference between the OZ and SA boys! Did you read Bryan Habana's article this morning? Very interesting! Cheers!
ScottD
Roar Guru
If two rubbish teams play and nobody turned up to watch the game are they still rubbush?
Fox
Roar Guru
Valid points Nick but their most recent losses the Hurricanes and failing to hold onto a good lead to get thrashed was poor and then a loss to NZ lowest side on the table and at home says a lot for me. They used to be a side that was very difficult to beat at home but this not so much the case now which is a worry and when your home game is beginning to slip as well as your away game then you are in trouble regardless of the margins or some decent things that are going on as you point out Credit to them - yes they have salvaged bonus points - but their win-loss ratio is still not good and they were beaten by the Sharks at home this year as well and in the past I would never have tipped the Sharks against the Brumbies at home but sadly I did this year. They also lost to the woeful Rebels this season - a side who have turned getting thrashed into an away game art form So I think while they might be doing some things better than say the Tahs - which they certainly are and will win the Australian Conference - which they probably will - it would seem to me they are slipping further with their two most recent losses. Tough judgement you may argue - but for me their last to games say a lot. You might argue they had some 50/50 call not go their way in close games but... As Hansen says - " You need to try and score enough points to take ref decisions out of the equation" And seriously every side - winning or not - can say that about 50/50 calls in most games.
piru
Roar Rookie
Well someone has definitely blunder'd mate
Fox
Roar Guru
Yes I was in rush eaglejack and didn't check it but typed it quickly -but fair point
taylorman
Guest
Sounds like the Blues Nick, 1,4,5,9 with a semi blowout vs the Chiefs. Highlanders would be in trouble had two or three of those gone the other way.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
When they’re not properly ‘on’, they can let any team run through them. The only blow-out I can recall is the second half against the Canes Brett - otherwise the Brumbies have kept their defeats to close margins.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
The Brumbies only lost by 4 to the Crusaders, by 5 to the Highlanders, by 6 to the Blues - so apart from the second half against the Canes, they've played NZ opponents on more or less even terms. They are also the only Australian side that has shown a real improvement or expansion to their play this season (whole game against the Reds, half of it versus the Canes), so a bit silly to knock them as just rolling maul obsessives. Their kick return game has shown some real sparks of life!
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
That will provide a stern test for the Wallabies Bakkies...
soapit
Guest
this must have been quite a moment when all of this finally dawned on you.
soapit
Guest
yep. promotion relegation is only feasible in a pro comp when there is so much depth that comps within the comp develop and where there is sufficient support for fans to follow clubs (and the clubs be financially viable) no matter which comp they play think epl where theres a battle in the top 5 year after year and then a separate battle for relegation and clubs dont fold every time they go down.
Council, sadly our rugby these days doesn't merit much to discuss
Cuw, points men little when you stand no chance of winning the comp. The New Zealand teams are streaks ahead of the South African teams with exception of the Lions.
Baylion
Roar Rookie
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Sylvian Mahuza, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Ruan Ackermann, 6 Kwagga Smith, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Andries Ferreira, 3 Johannes Jonker, 2 Robbie Coetzee, 1 Corne Fourie Substitutes: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Jacques van Rooyen, 18 Ruan Dreyer, 19 Lourens Erasmus, 20 Robert Kruger/Cyle Brink, 21 Dillon Smit, 22 Jacques Nel, 23 Anthony Volmink Some interesting changes and selections: Bench front row to start Ruan Ackermann and Andries Ferreira back from their rest last week but not Faf de Klerk, who signed with the Sale Sharks
Council
Guest
Harry and Biltong, an amusing little side story while you're both here. I saw a post on a ABs rugby page on FB the other day, the name was rather familiar so I asked, do you happen to be the same Armand Van Zyl from the Roar? And it was! It's been such a long time that we've seen him post here and it's been a shame. The three of you really added a great view of SA rugby to the roar. He was surprised to hear that you were back here posting occasionally Biltong, and sad to hear that the mighty pen of Mr Jones hasn't written many articles of late. I'm still waiting to hear what happens to the captain of the rugby team you wrote articles about Harry!
davSA
Guest
I realise that injuries played a role Bakkies but I am peeved off a bit too . Some pretty daft selections didn't help them at all.
Paul
Guest
Sorry Fox. Yes NZ is superior in every way and Australian fans should not seek to salvage any positivity out of their rugby teams. Lest it be construed as attempting to take any gloss off your awesomeness..
Bakkies
Guest
Too many injuries Dav. Letting Taute stay at Munster when his loan deal was up was stupid too as they had to recruit a Kiwi as they ran out of centres
Bakkies
Guest
The Brumbies have lost a lot of close games after playing the toughest matches so far. The most difficult match left despite the road schedule is the Chiefs. The Rebels loss was inexcusable I will give you that one.