Owen Farrell may not be the best player in the world, but he is close to it.
Without doubt he is the key player for the British and Irish Lions in 2017. If Farrell continues in the fashion he has played for England and Saracens over the past 18 months the Lions have a better than 50/50 chance of winning the series against New Zealand.
Sadly, the early rumours and selection signs suggest that Warren Gatland may not select Farrell in the starting XV.
While it is always difficult to separate tabloid mischief from well sourced steers, the selection of Ben Te’o seems like a pursuit of Jamie Roberts Mark II.
That is particularly the case given the numerous sources in the British and Irish media that suggested England’s 13 Joseph, was lucky to make the plane and that Davies is Gatland’s preference at 13.
Gatland has form. He has been heavily criticised in the Northern Hemisphere for refusing to steer away from ‘Warren Ball’.
The predictable Welsh side of the 2015 World Cup lacked imagination and much of that was a result of Gatland’s obstinate midfield selections that showed a reluctance to ‘move with the times’.
It is entirely possible that the Biggar, Roberts, Davies Welsh combination will be replaced with a Sexton, Te’o, Davies Lions axis. That would be a mistake. In fact it would be a tragedy for all neutrals too.
Gatland’s reasoning for such an approach seems to be that no side can beat the All Blacks with a distributor at 12.
Yet this almost assumes that a ‘distributor’ in the midfield will be a compromise defensively and at the gain line.
Farrell is a vicious competitor and rock solid tackler. While he can take the ball to the gain line hard, his real talent is in bringing big runners into the game in a manner that is not always predictable and exploits weaknesses in defensive patterns.
There was no better example of this than the Saracens versus Clermont European Cup Final. Time and again, Farrell kept the fence guessing and ensured that hard running team mates like Brad Barritt, Chris Ashton and Billy Vunipola were cracking open the game.
If Gatland adopts the approach of past Welsh sides and picks Te’o as well as Davies in the midfield then the Lions will have no chance.
The All Blacks are easily good enough to sit back and soak up the battering, just as the Wallabies did at the World Cup with 13 men for much of the game.
On the other hand Farrell’s Saracens have almost created a blue print for how to beat New Zealand. Clermont play a very similar off loading game to the Kiwis with superbly talented back rowers and a mobile front 5.
They score most of their points from broken field play and counter attacks, just like the All Blacks.
In beating Clermont, Farrell was sure to control the tempo of the game. All of Farrell’s options were right, a trait Eddie Jones loves. He ensured the game was played in Clermont’s half.
The exchanges at the breakdown were ferocious, Saracens dominated at scrum time and the ball only went wide after Saracens had drawn in Clermont’s big men.
But when it did go wide there was imagination. There was no one obvious tactic, like a crash ball at 12 or a futile box kick that dominated the game.
Farrell’s passing and carefully judged kicking made it impossible for Clermont to sit back and wait to get Saracens through a breakout counter attack.
It was as if Farrell and Saracens had listened to the ghosts of school boy coaches. Passing was in front of runners. Players did not run one out. Kicking was not aimless. The ball did not go wide until the forwards had earned the right. Who would have thought game of rugby could be won so simply!
Speaking of Saracens, Gatland must surely have watched the European Cup Final and it is difficult to see how many of the 6 Saracens Lions he can leave out of the first choice side.
Farrell along with Mako and Billy Vunipola, Maro Itoje, Kruis and Jamie George must be all at least certainties for the Test match 23.
It makes a lot of sense to maintain that spine for the Lions and preserve combinations where at all possible.
All neutrals and even allot of Kiwis must be hoping that the Lions side is at its strongest for the First Test. If Owen Farrell is not selected, it won’t be.
My Lions XV: McGrath, Owens, Furlong, Itoje, Kruis, Stander, Warburton, Vunipola, Murray, Sexton, Watson, Farrell, Joseph, North, Hogg.
Reserves: M Vunipola, George, Cole, AWJ, O’Brien, Webb, Te’o, Daly.
Henry Honey Balls
Guest
Last 3 NZ v Ireland tests: NZ penalised 36 times vs 11 Ireland penalties NZ 3 yellow cards including 2 in the last test vs 0 Ireland cards NZ one suspension vs 0 for Ireland Maybe criticism of NZ's discipline is warranted?
Lroy
Guest
Had to check the date.. Owen Farrel wouldn't get a game with a NZ super franchise let alone the All Blacks. But what would a Lions tour be without a little hype eh?? Im at a bit of a loss to remember the last time the Lions even won a game against the All Backs.. s'pose I could google it....
Blue
Guest
All Gatland needs to do is watch South Africa trying to play his style with a 12 like De Allende agains the Darkness. They man up in that channel as much as you think you can run over them you hardly ever do. If he plays a crash baller at 12 he throughly deserves to not only lose but get his a** handed to him. Farrel should be at 12. It is so obvious.
Jock Cornet
Guest
That's a great idea Bb,mauls should be allowed to be pulled down, then it is up to the offensive side to have a solid maul and allows the defensive side to defend as well as less penalties.
adastra32
Guest
Keep waxing that head....if you want to see what Farrell can do at 10 at high level, watch the extended highlights of last Saturday's European Cup final: Saracens vs. Clermont.
Liam
Guest
Neutral, why not stick with your convictions? If OF is so good at IC, then the abs will have no chance of breaking the defensive libe, especially with the superior british forwards and their insane depth. Right? Isnt that the argument? So the lions wont need 30 points. Right? Im dubious.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
The Lions do have great depth in the forwards. If every Alison's forwarded got injured Gatland could send for this pack: Healey Hartley Lee Launchbury J. Gray Robshaw Haskell Heaslip
FunBus
Roar Rookie
The Lions do have great depth in the forwards. If every Lion's forward got injured Gatland could send for this pack: Healey Hartley Lee Launchbury J. Gray Robshaw Haskell Heaslip
Sinclair Whitbourne
Roar Rookie
In terms of the headline, I think the forwards are the key, as always. They will need to dominate set piece to limit the supply of ball for the AB's dangerous backs and to limit kicking options for NZ. They will also need to make a mess of loose play to enable pressure to be placed on the NZ halves. I like the backline you have selected and I agree that Farrell is a key player. It would be nice to have a physically powerful player at 12 but as you say, Farrell is a sound defender and whilst not a great attacking force he is a solid distributor and better than the other options at 12. His kicking and, especially, goal kicking are what really make him hard to go past. If the Lions win it will be by converting a limited number of opportunities. His goal kicking is a key to this. He also covers 10 if needed and his selection allows the freedom to select a more attacking 15 than Halfpenny. This is not a criticism of Halfpenny - he is a fine player but I see him as a defensive fullback. What would be ideal would be someone like T'eo with skills like Umaga, or Nonu. What a series it promises to be - more like 1993 than 2005 I hope!
jemainok
Guest
Neutral it will be Warrenball for sure. That is just his way.
jemainok
Guest
In my memory he doesn't fit the bil for WG IC imo Wre01 happy to be proven wrong as I feel you should try to get your best players on the field. But WG said he see's him as a ten so we will see .
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
It is easy to see Farrell and Sexton being the leaders on the field and driving the team on. They are from the same mould. Real obsessed winners. If the squad buy into their leadership, it would be a good start for the Lions. The third wheel in the Lions creative machinery - Murray - could make it a leadership trio. First the Lions needs to win the forward battle. But even if they do, they still need to execute on that and score points, otherwise AB's will kill them on the turnover. So in order to keep the score board ticking, these three has to click and lead from the front. Thirty points is the minimum needed to beat the AB's. Problem is, if Sexton or Farrell gets injured, they have to change tactic. They have no players that can replicate Sexton and Farrell. Than it would be Warrenball for sure.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Hi there Thugby. For the record, I think Ryan Crotty is fine fine player. So useful. Would slot in nicely in any team. But when you describe Crotty's strengths I think he and Farrell are very similar. Farrells play at 12 reminds me so much of Conrad Smith. A glue player. He does not make mistakes, and despite not being fastest or strongest, superior rugby brain compensates that. His passes stick. Add his kicking boot on that, and I think you can see the upsides selecting him. AB's now with a real "kicking crises" would love to have Farrell.
Henry Honey Balls
Guest
He may not be the best 10 or even 12 but Farrell is a real winner and leader. England rugby doesnt have too many players like him. Himself and Sexton are cut from the same cloth. They will both be frothing at the mouth to get a series win be that foolhardy or not. If Farrell and Sexton gel then they will be formidable opposition. They are the type of guys that drive standards and urge everyone on. My sense is that they will both start even though someone like Henshaw is possibly as better 12.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
G'day Fionn and Neutral Sweden View. Funny that the WB have a wanna-be #12 playing at #7 whereas the AB have a wanna-be #7 playing at #12. As a coach, I would always take R.Crotty over O.Farrell. That's no disrespect on O.Farrell as I think he is a great footballer. They both are good organisers in defence and attack, but are fierce defenders also. For me, Crotty wins for 2 reasons; (a) he is a much harder runner of the ball so presents more danger to the opposition and more importantly (b) Crotty attacks the wider rucks thus allowing continuity of keeping the ball in attack even if a player is isolated near the wings as well as slows down opposition rucks out wide.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
G'day Biltongbek, agree with you there although I doubt if we will ever see the game legalising mauls being pulled down. Too much risk of being sued. I think SA teams have made defending against a maul almost an art form, whereas Aussie teams are hopeless. Most seem to just try to collapse the maul, get pinged and hope they don't cop a yellow.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
I sorta agree with wre01 here. I honestly think a lot of people underestimate O.Farrell's abilities and how he holds the backline together. I remember last years England series against the WB, 1st test in Brisbane. O.Farrell is the 5/8 and L.Burrell the IC. First 15 minutes, WB are carving up England even though the Poms are winning the forward's battle. Eddie Jones replaces Burrell with G.Ford (an inconspicuous defender) to #10 and moves Farrell to IC. O.Farrell may not be the greatest runner with the ball but he is a mighty good organiser/ball distributor. England wins the game thanks to the Farrell move, the WB inability to change plan A, a Frog referee and 6 penalties. Everybody calls E.Jones a genius who has never changed that #10-12 formula since. If W.Gatland plays Farrell at #10, the BIL will get hammered. If he takes the cue from E.Jones, he will play Sexton at #10 and Farrell at IC and the BIL with their very very good forward pack have a fair chance of beating the AB. I think the Crusaders vs Highlanders was a perfect blueprint on how to beat the AB. Are the BIL good enough to do that for 80 minutes is the question.
I tend to agree, the issue with rolling mauls has a lot to do with howreferees interpret them as well. The changing lanes is a contentious issue most of the times. I know that pulling down the maul is illegalbecause it is supposedly dangerous, however I think it should be legalised.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
My personal opinion (counts for nowt, may I add) is rolling mauls are legalised obstruction, as once the ball is behind the front players then there is no direct contest for the ball. Even in the WR/IRB Book of Rugby Laws, (pdf on their web site) the diagrams show only 2-3 players and oddly enough there is absolutely NO mention of the ball being passed to others behind the front players of the maul. It's almost that the current thinking of a maul as a hand-held scrum moving forward has evolved from certain coaches and team styles into acceptance by all. This is a ridiculous take as scrums have set positions, rules and you cannot just hive off a scrum and form a second scrum as you can with mauls. For my money, mauls can only move forward if the ball is held by one of the front players. If the ball is passed behind, then no player from the opposition can directly compete for the ball so the maul must remain still (or be pushed backwards) keeping in mind the 5 second rule (Law 17:6 (d). The ball or a player with the ball can then leave the maul and play continues. These changes would ensure the contest for the ball remains but we won't see it as some team's sole tactic with more than 20 rolling mauls per game. That's almost as bad as watching a match with more that 20 scrums in it (easy to see that I never played as a prop/hooker). :)
moaman
Guest
Neutral; I don't think you ar ecomparing apples with apples mate. The ABs were out on their feet by Dublin and exhausted at Paris....the top NZ players had clocked up an unprecedented amount of miles (swedish or otherwise) by the time their gas ran out on the EOYT last year. Adding The Jaguares and Pumas to the various competitions has meant an awful lot of extra travel for players from Crusaders, Chiefs,Highlanders and 'Canes in particular. June, injuries aside, will see a whole different level of energy and enthusiasm displayed.Watch out!