The British and Irish Lions can win in New Zealand - but do they believe it?

By Jack Colwill / Roar Rookie

“When Alexander saw the breadth of his domain, he wept, for there were no more worlds to conquer.”

This famous (albeit misquoted) sentiment, attributed to Plutarch speaking about Alexander the Great, is one that will strike a chord with any modern rugby fan as they contemplate the possibility of their country going to New Zealand.

Whenever any nation ventures down to the home of the All Blacks, they go with an air of doom about them, an understanding that they are on a kamikaze mission of sorts, to do what the barest few in world rugby have ever done and take down the undisputed kings of the game in their own backyard.

They boast the highly enviable record of not having lost a Test match at home in almost eight years, when they were downed by three points by South Africa.

Even when we go back to 2003, when they went down 15-13 in Wellington, it took an England side at the absolute height of its powers who would go on to claim a maiden World Cup a few months later to scrape past them in New Zealand.

It took one of the best sides the world has seen to place a mark in the almost unfairly consistent record that is Test match rugby in New Zealand.

It comes as no surprise, therefore, that the upcoming British and Irish Lions tour – into the proverbial lion’s den, if you will – has been treated with extreme caution and restrictions on optimism.

After all, the last tour down that way ended with Brian O’Driscoll hospitalised after a minute of the First Test, a Second Test remembered for Dan Carter delivering arguably the greatest individual performance of all time, and a series overall that may as well have delivered the Lions back to Blighty in body bags.

However, there are differences this time around. Even then, the Lions squad that travelled in 2005 was considered under-par.

They had an admittedly successful coach who had been pulled back into the game fairly drastically after moving on from rugby, and the whole tour was marred by the furore over the presence of former Labour spin doctor Alastair Campbell as a media consultant.

This time, however, there has been nothing about optimism about the quality of the squad making the journey. When players like Joe Launchbury, arguably the player of the Six Nations, a Finn Russell in arguably the form of his life and Lions stalwart Jamie Heaslip are left behind, you know you are taking some serious power with you.

Gatland bucked the trends with his squad. Yes, he took some players out of loyalty, but they were players that had proven that they stepped up for the Lions jersey in 2013.

Yes, he named Sam Warburton as captain again, but he went to great lengths to state that the on-field captaincy is up for grabs and let’s be honest, is there a better man in that squad to act as an off-field captain and media-facer than Sam? I don’t think so.

AFP PHOTO / LOIC VENANCE

But Gatland picked not just the best players, as other coaches have done before. Picking guys like Ben Te’o, Ross Moriarty, Jared Payne and Kyle Sinckler, who are not even established international starters yet, Gatland has clearly picked to a game plan and given himself options.

He has picked a squad based on what he has seen from each player and pieced together the elements of their games that will fit best into the side he wants to create, rather than hoping that rubbing enough good players together will create a good team.

So the obvious question arises – is this a squad capable of not just winning a single Test match in New Zealand, but a series to boot?

Yes.

This squad is bursting with brilliant individual players, but also players who understand Southern Hemisphere rugby that bit better and players who can rattle the All Blacks. It is not to say necessarily that they are man-for-man better across the board than the world champions, but collectively it all holds up very well for the Lions on paper.

However, as we know with New Zealand, on paper and on-field are two very different things.

There is one simple thing that needs to change for the Lions to win in New Zealand. It is not tactically, in terms of personnel, or anything like that.

It is a simple question of the underlying mentality of the squad. Between now and the First Test, Gatland and his squad will talk constantly about how they believe they can beat the All Blacks. However, the question of to how far those individual players actually do believe it is going to define this tour.

Players will be putting forward the optimistic facade as soon as they touch down in New Zealand, but there will be players who still, at the back of their mind, remain aware of the uncharted territory they are attempting to breach.

No player in that squad has won in New Zealand before, and quite a few have never even played there. That will have an impact.

Gatland’s biggest task in assembling another series win is to convince every player in that squad, 100 per cent, that they can win. He needs to rid every mind of the doubts about the atmosphere, the quality of the opposition, and the nature of Lions squads being a little fractured to begin with.

(Mike Egerton/PA Wire)

He needs to keep his squad focused on themselves, the qualities they possess and the rugby they want to play. If the eyes and mind of the players wander to the All Blacks, doubts begin to emerge and the game is up – New Zealand have got you in that well-worn web.

This may well be the best Lions squad ever assembled – at least in modern tour history. It is a squad that would be roundly backed for a series win were they going to South Africa or Australia. But, maybe it is fitting – to play the best, the Lions are taking the best they have had.

This is the biggest opportunity to win in New Zealand that any team has ever had, and whether or not they can take will come down to how much they believe they can do it.

No-one can coach that. Gatland can do as much as he can to convince them, but it will come down to the players and their inner belief.

Over to you, Lions.

The Crowd Says:

2017-05-19T11:18:08+00:00

Goatee

Guest


T/Man "I watched a couple of recent NH matches" In your dreams, Taylorman... in your dreams...

2017-05-19T11:07:26+00:00

Goatee

Guest


2017-05-19T10:49:25+00:00

Colin N

Guest


Like? Who should have gone and at the expense of which players?

2017-05-19T10:48:17+00:00

Colin N

Guest


Neutral's being attacked because he's trying to suggest the Lions have the cattle to challenge the All Blacks, which is of course sacrilege to those in New Zealand. He's not even saying the Lions are going to win but merely saying that they do have the individuals to challenge the All Blacks. He's also backing it up with very salient points.

2017-05-19T10:38:28+00:00

Colin N

Guest


There is Google taylorman but I know you don't want your perceptions altered so I've done it for you. For Leinster, in their semi against Clermont, there were two non Irish-qualified players in the starting XV, although Triggs qualifies in 2018. On the bench there were two more, although Gibson-Park will also qualify at some point. For Munster, there were two, although Bleyendaal will qualify in 2018. On the bench, there were also two. For Clermont, rather surprisingly, there were just two southern hemisphere imports starting (Yato and Lee) and two more on the bench. So there you are, there was not much of a SH influence in the latter stages of the Champions Cup this season. Dan Carter and co need to up their game, evidently not good enough to compete with the NH best.

2017-05-19T10:24:22+00:00

Colin N

Guest


"What about a SH -less Saracens side?" Duncan Taylor (who would have been in contention for the Lions if not for injury) for Bosch and Petrus du Plessis (English-qualified having been there for over 15 years) for Koch and you're sorted. That team still would have won the Champions Cup.

2017-05-19T10:15:21+00:00

Colin N

Guest


"Having watched a considerable amount of Superugby this year and also a bit of European league I don’t see the NH players being better at all." Super Rugby this season, with the exception of the New Zealand derbies, has been woeful.

2017-05-19T10:10:30+00:00

Colin N

Guest


English did alright without Itoje and Kruis.

2017-05-19T09:46:00+00:00

Colin N

Guest


I count 11 of the Saracens starting XV that won the Champions Cup last weekend as English-qualified. That will go up to 12 when Michael Rhodes qualifies. Of the others in that starting XV, Chris Wyles has been in England since the age of 11 but decided to play for the US because he was never going to be selected for England. That leaves Marcelo Bosch and Vincent Koch who, while very good players, are not what you would consider 'stars.' In fact, Schalk Burger is probably their only 'top level' foreign import and he was on the bench because of Jackson Wray's form, another academy graduate. I would argue that Saracens is leading the way in world rugby right now in terms of the talent it's producing.

2017-05-19T00:18:59+00:00

jemainok

Guest


True. But that is not Irelands fault.

2017-05-19T00:16:56+00:00

jemainok

Guest


Well since one of my grand parents travelled from Cork to NZ and another from Donegal I have a fair idea were Ireland is. it was just a little play on words not really a serious comment.

2017-05-18T23:44:32+00:00

Derm

Roar Guru


Yes, I'm an islander. You'll find it located to the left of another island called Great Britain. :)

2017-05-18T23:44:01+00:00

Jeffrey

Guest


Maybe, but I am just echoing what Steve Hansen has said post that match. Sometimes we are so afraid of being politically incorrect and won't say what we believe. I genuinely believe the ABs were not as switched on as they could have been.

2017-05-18T21:35:55+00:00

FunBus

Roar Rookie


Does Google not exist down south? None of the 'big' players for Saracens are SH imports.

2017-05-18T21:19:09+00:00

FunBus

Roar Rookie


'So why are they hiring them' Because there's a salary cap and it's cheaper to fill out the very large roster they need with so many players often away on international duty with some SH players no longer playing international rugby.

2017-05-18T21:07:23+00:00

FunBus

Roar Rookie


Your comment about Saracens was silly. They could field an all NH starting 15 from their own squad and be just as good. The only debate is whether you class the Vunipolas as SH or NH.

2017-05-18T21:03:11+00:00

FunBus

Roar Rookie


You mention Saracens a side stacked with SH players...remove those players and they'd be a shell of what they are now.' None of the Saracens 'stars' are SH players, unless you want to count the Vunipolas who moved to the UK as small children.

2017-05-18T20:43:18+00:00

taylorman

Roar Guru


That's a tough one Sweden, it's hard to know who actually qualifies in terms of any new players. It's actually not a game I'm particularly fussed about compared to the tests and Super sides, being a one off. Like to know what other kiwis think about this one. I think the Ioane brothers will feature though as an outsider I think Reiko could make the ABs if injuries like Ben Smith and SBW persist as he can cover wing and Centre. Ash Dixon captained the 2016 side so should he not make the ABs...with Read, Kaino sidelined he probably will. Otere Black perhaps at 10. With these types of games I just tend to go with the flow. I know it's special to Maori, I just struggle with its place in today's professional environment. They beat the Lions last tour, the only non test side to do so, so they'll be looking to repeat that. For me the Super sides hold more appeal, particularly the Blues and Crusaders who get their All Blacks, due to the familiarity and we played the provinces...mitre 10 sides as they're known now, last time.

2017-05-18T18:09:23+00:00

Goatee

Guest


With regard to former SR players, I didn't say that they didn't add value... I simply emphasised that there are clubs in the NH who have demonstrated their capacity to win their domestic competitions without being totally reliant upon them. Surely, you can grasp the difference between those two statements?

2017-05-18T15:05:04+00:00

Carlos the Argie

Guest


Just my two cents about Cardiff 2007. That year I met my current wife. She is a sports fanatic (NCAA basketball and cycling) and I told her we were going to the RWC to watch the ABs, a team that never loses.... It was her intro to international rugby. It was an amazing day at the stadium, but we left in total shock. Like all kiwis there (even though I am an Argie). She kept asking me how come the ABs lost. How come there were no penalties against the French in one entire half? I have never seen that. She kept asking me how come the referee and the touch judge didn't see the forward pass that was so obvious for us to see from the stands? I have seen this before... She asked me how come they selected a 26 year old guy to referee this game, his first international big game, a QF at a RWC.... I have never seen this before. And so it went the entire drive back to London. The next day, we took the TGV to Paris to see Argentina-Scotland. I had purchased the Cardiff tickets thinking it would be an Argentina-AB match, except the first game of the RWC changed the plans. Stade de France was better. Marcelo Campo, a former Pumas, sat next to me in the stands. We had played together in my early days. Well, he played first team, I played second. But he recognized me!

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