Coming into Indigenous round this week, it’s fascinating to revisit Buddy Franklin’s charge up the all-time goal-kicking ranks.
He needs just four more goals to move into the top ten and overtake Bernie Quinlan – and has every chance of nailing this feat on Friday night.
In fact, everything is set up perfectly – Sir Doug Nicholls round, Friday night lights, and against his old club Hawthorn.
I have been keeping tabs on his progress and touched on this briefly last year in an article on a similar theme.
Buddy has 27 goals this year from nine matches which is just a tad under his career average. I believe he will get to 60 by the conclusion of the season, so will factor in another 33 goals to get to 847 this year from the remaining 13 home-and-away matches.
(With the Swans’ poor start, I cannot see finals in 2017 despite their recent realisation the season has actually commenced).
Under his nine-year deal, after this year Buddy has another five seasons at the Swans, equating to 110 regular season matches.
Being the eternal optimist, I will include ten finals in that period to round out to 120 games.
I will factor in Franklin losing roughly a ”season’ (20 matches) to injuries/suspension as a cumulative measure – and thus estimate he will still manage close to another 100 matches in the red and white.
Coupled with a reduced output, from 2018 I predict he will realise 220 majors from these 100 games at an average of 2.2 per game (currently his career average stands at 3.18).
If this forecast is close to the mark, it will bring Buddy to a total of 1067 goals from around 365 career games. He will pass Gary Ablett and Doug Wade, to end up fourth overall behind Gordon Coventry, Jason Dunstall and Tony Lockett – not bad at all.
I will also suggest there won’t be anyone near this mark for a long time, perhaps forever with the way football has changed.
When you look at this current list of goal-kickers, there is no one close to even approaching these figures.
There are obviously some outstanding forwards, but at best the likes of Josh Kennedy, both the Riewoldts, and Jeremy Cameron will be looking at outputs to challenge the 750-800 goal mark by the end of their careers.
(AAP Image/David Moir)
Unless formalised zones or another way to curb the player crush is brought into the game in the future (who knows with the way the Laws of the Game Committee seemingly change everything every five minutes), Buddy will be a unique legend among legends – having mastered the art of scoring heavily, with consistently and longevity, despite the intricacies of flooding and zoning in the modern game.
In Sir Doug Nicholls round, designed to celebrate Indigenous players and culture, lets hope the game’s two exciting most exciting goal-kickers in both Buddy and Eddie Betts can light up the stage.
I believe Kevin Sheedy’s 2005 comments when introducing ‘Dreamtime at the G’ encapsulate what this round aims to promote.
“Anzac Day is a very spiritual day for this country, there is no doubt about that – where men and women lost their lives. But this is about building a country.
“It’s in another direction, the people who were here first, and the people who have come since. It’s whether you get your act together and have the great country we should have.”
This round also takes on extra significance this year with the 20th anniversary of the Bringing Them Home Report occurring this week, which extensively documented the experiences of the Stolen Generation members.
In the overall scheme of things football is obviously not the answer to reconciliation, but it can play a part.
Bretto
Guest
If you think Buddy will play for another 5 years you are dreaming. Probably 3. So call it 70 games.
Sexton1
Guest
And Lockett and Dunstall played full forward their whole careers, unlike Ablett of course, and probably are the best pure full forwards of all time, regardless of era.
Sexton1
Guest
I don't agree, but I acknowledge you speak for most coaches, and maybe most players. My question is: are the professionals right in their claim that Ablett wasn't as consistent as Matthews or Carey? I believe the numbers suggest no. Professionals are just as susceptible to "legends," groupthink, as other people, even if they do have some advantages, and they tend to rate highly, perhaps too highly, "intangibles" like character, work-ethic etc., as opposed to on-field performance as such. And in Australia, unlike in America, they're generally not asked to back up their claims with evidence. Anyway, my view is that not only was Ablett's best better than anyone else's (not many people dispute that), but his career as a whole was better than anyone else's too. But maybe I'll write a column on it and we can debate it in detail, because it definitely IS debatable.
Brian
Guest
No he isn't. He was lazy at training and inconsistent on field. He played in the best era the game has ever had fro being a full forward given that two of his contemporaries kicked more goals. Sure there is the legend but from a serious discussion involving senior VFL/AFL players/coaches I've never heard Ablett rated above Mathews or Carey. I don't mean to sound harsh he was easily in the top 10 of the last 40 years and that is impressive but he did not have the consistency for the claim you are making.
Sexton1
Guest
What's really arguable is whether Ablett is really "clearly" number one (a strong claim I know).
Sexton1
Guest
Check the "greatest ever" rankings compiled by people like Ron Barassi, Mike Sheahan etc. and I think you'll find Ablett isn't ranked number one (or even number two) in most of them. Whereas I think he is pretty clearly number one, and according to polls, so do most fans. So there is something of a split between fans and "experts" on this subject. That was all I was claiming. If I'd said "no one rates Ablett," that might have been "ridiculous" and "bizarre" (geez guys, there are points between 0 and 100 you know).
Rocko
Roar Guru
Not under-rated in my view - one of the two or three greatest ever.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Agreed - physically he puts himself in great position, but unforunately those shoulders can't go where they used to.
Slane
Guest
Bizarre comment. Gary Ablett Snr is a player who always ets thrown into the conversation about the 'best ever'. The only reason Carey, Matthews and even Ablett Jnr ever get talked about infront of 'God' is because he couldn't win a flag or even just captain his team.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Yes. Oddly the worst overhead mark of all time while being probably the best and most consistent ground level and long kicking player.
Glenn
Guest
No he isn't. What makes you think he is strangely underrated? His name doesn't have to come up in every football conversation. He was ridiculously good. He didn't always play as a forward, but still kicked 1000 goals.
Slane
Guest
Buddy has more chance of kicking 1000 goals than he does of playing another 100 games.
Sexton1
Guest
Slightly off topic, but I think Gary Ablett Snr. is strangely underrated by football "experts." Yeah, sure, everyone concedes he's the most spectacular player to have played the game, but the idea is that he wasn't as effective as Matthews or Carey. But going by the "hard" numbers, his record is incomparable: in his first 100 games, he kicked 346 goals, took 590 marks, and had 1584 disposals. By the end of his career, he had kicked over over 1000 goals when he didn't move to full forward until he was 31! Had he played forward his whole career, he would certainly have kicked the most goals in VFL/AFL history. If Australia was America, Ablett would be more highly rated (and a few other things would be different too, of course!). The Americans rate numbers more highly, too highly sometimes, perhaps, but at least they push "experts" to actually justify their opinions with evidence rather than just appealing to old clichés about "team players" and so on (one thing the statistical revolution in baseball showed was that the fans were sometimes rights and the experts and coaches sometimes wrong—e.g., more spectacular fan favourites like Babe Ruth and Micky Mantle were actually better, had more impact on results, than accumulators like Ty Cobb and Willie Mays).
Roger of Sydney
Guest
The key piece missing in buddies arsenal is his ability or lack there of to contested mark over head. That probably costs him about 20 goals a year. The Swans play better when they share the ball around so 60 goals a year should be on the money.