It’s time for me contribute my customary pre-tournament prediction. And yes, England are my pick to win the ICC Champions Trophy.
Who wouldn’t pick the Poms? Best short-form side over the last two years. Best balance of youth and experience. Best preparation out of any team.
Best adaptability to the conditions. For the first time since January 5, 1971, England are the best team leading into a one-day tournament.
But I can’t write off South Africa just yet. Irrespective of their performances against England this week, playing against the best team is perfect preparation leading into a knockout tournament.
Look at New Zealand – they comfortably lost 2-0 against the Proteas in October 2014. But five months later, they conquered them in a thrilling semi-final at Eden Park. Obviously there’s more to it than that – Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui isn’t nearly as intimidating as Auckland’s Eden Park. And Eden Park played host to a World Cup semi-final.
So do South Africa choke in semi-finals? Maybe they do, maybe they don’t. They’ve often left their worst performance for knockout games, but they’ve often versed irresistible opposition in the process.
I could go and measure the physics of momentum and key moments in games. Or I could analyse the psychological pressures associated with South Africa’s ‘choker’ tagline. Or I could study the probability of losing X amount of knock-out games, compared to winning Y amount of normal games.
See what I’m doing here? I’m overthinking the nuances of a sport that fundamentally just has a winner and a loser. Past coaches and players may have been shackled by this mindset. But the Proteas broke these shackles at Eden Park. Aside from a few errors in the field, they were defeated by rain, a controversial selection and a formidable Blackcaps batting line-up.
(AFP PHOTO/Tony ASHBY)
I believe South Africa will not be intimidated by this tournament. Their personnel are battle-hardened and in full playing mode. A long home summer split by tours to Australia and New Zealand, a longer IPL campaign for several of their players, and an even longer tour to England will allow the Proteas to approach the Champions Trophy as ‘yet another campaign’. This is heightened by a lacklustre build-up to a tournament increasingly losing its relevance.
Now to the playing personnel. In an ever-batting friendly tournament, South Africa have three of the game’s top ten ODI batsmen: AB de Villiers, Faf du Plessis and Quinton de Kock. Add the in-form Hashim Amla and dangerous David Miller to the top six, and South Africa have a line-up brimming with match-winners.
In the bowling department, Kagiso Rabada and Imran Tahir are the key wicket-takers. It will be up to the support bowlers, and South Africa as a fielding unit, to limit the damage in the other thirty overs.
Following the England series, South Africa will enjoy facing weaker opponents in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Their final match in Group B is against India. A lot will ride on India’s performance in the tournament, and more specifically, the output from India’s out-of-form captain.
It is interesting then, how Virat Kohli described the hype from India as “a knife hanging on your neck”.
South Africa’s potential semi-final opponents are Australia, England, New Zealand and Bangladesh. New Zealand and Bangladesh just don’t have the all-round fire-power to pose a serious threat.
Australia, like India, have the all-round fire-power but face other distractions. Add to this a fairly meagre preparation, along with the memories of a 5-nil whitewash in October, and South Africa may just have the edge over the Australians.
As far as England goes, South Africa will be hoping to not face them in the semi-finals. A raucous home crowd at Edgbaston isn’t ideal for any opposition.
Sophia Gardens in Cardiff isn’t as bad. But as South Africa are well-accustomed to, anything can happen in the game of cricket, especially when it’s a knock-out match.
Tapeshwer Singh
Guest
You would be surprised to know who has lost most worldcup finals and semifinals ,and can alternatively be called "chokers", SA is not even close.
Tapeshwer Singh
Guest
No they are not,they have a batting lineup full of bashers, and nothing to show for spin bowling.Pretty glasring weaknesses.
davSA
Guest
As an employer ,and having invested effort , time and of course cash into a staff member and they resign via a text message .............Yup I would indeed be P...ed off .
Bakkies
Guest
From what I got out of it is that they were very annoyed at putting all that time and money in to Rossouw he hasn't really reached his potential and he is now off for money.
davSA
Guest
Yes I did watch it Bakkies . Domingo and Lorgat were very harsh on Rossouw. But I think it was as much to do with his manner of informing them. ( He sent a text message) . Whereas Abbott I believe was more upfront and direct about his intentions.
Bakkies
Guest
The press conference announcing the moves is worth watching. There was sympathy for Abbott on the other hand they laid in to Rossouw
Alex L
Roar Rookie
Couldn't get them in anyway without a stern letter from the government.
davSA
Guest
Without Kyle Abbott and Riley Rossouw ( taking the Kolpak gap) the team just does not look as potent as that which tackled Australia in SA recently. Abbott would have brought some added potency to the attack and Rossouw right now would be a superior choice to either Duminy or Behardien in the middle order.
Alex L
Roar Rookie
Amla is a great player but also one on a clear decline (regardless of what he may do to C tier IPL bowling), de Villiers will flop at least once (because he's not super human), and they're stuck carrying Behardien and Duminy. The only way they win is either an amazing run of fortune or everyone else crapping the bed.
Giri Subramanian
Roar Guru
Yup they are the favourites this time around and have a great chance of lifting the trophy. Their batting looks in great form and that can carry them on flat tracks. It will be interesting to see when they come up against Australia, who also have explosive batting line up but a good attack with Starc leading the way. On their Indian tour, they lost two straight batting shoot outs out of 3. So their bowling is a big concern.
Rats
Guest
Rightly said about England.. Their bowling is not the best and their strong batting line up against quality spin need to be watched. That's why their match against Bangladesh will be tricky for them.. Still England are in top two favorites for me to lift the cup. Their confidence level is sky high..
Giri Subramanian
Roar Guru
It is disappointing that they keep losing these close games. The fact that they still had 5 wickets in hand is baffling. I can understand if you get bowled out with 2 runs needed, that can happen but having 2 set batsmen in the middle and still losing is something I cannot comprehend. But again, SA will be happy that in the two games they played all their batters scored runs. Their bowling has come in for some stick but again the pitches seem to be very flat. England though are enhancing their reputation as a power hitting team but again their bowlers are getting hammered all the same. It will be interesting if they have to chase 340 against an attack which has good spinners.
Rats
Guest
Did you anyone watch the second odi vs England? How SA lost in the last two overs. Exactly the reason why some people are hesitant to call them favorites despite having a strong team almost always. The mental thing.. If they can overcome that, they can win the cup.
Giri Subramanian
Roar Guru
SA will always be favourites in any tournament they play. They can never be written off. In fact except for the 2003 WC I don't remember them not qualifying for any 50 over world tournament knockout stages. It is the final punch they lack. For the kind of teams SA have had over the past 25 years, they should have won at least one world cup, if not two.
davSA
Guest
There are cracks in the make up which are being exposed under pressure .. Without Morkel the pace attack looks ordinary .Rabada is getting no support out there. . Fielding was poor , 5 dropped catches and ......this will get me flak here in SA , but relieve AB of the captaincy . FAF should surely be the man in charge... Having said this it may be a blessing in disguise. SA have never coped with the favorites tag very well . Also bear in mind in the previous One Day series in England SA also lost the first 2 games only to come back with 3 in a row for the series win. I really don't think the coaching staff or the players will be all that concerned about losing 2 in a row . Plenty of cricket to come. As a footnote .. Rabada is getting an awful lot of attention in SA . He is being feted , wined and dined at every opportunity .. I'm going to whisper this but seems to have lost a yard of pace...Its a lot of fame for such a young cricketer , hope he is mentored and managed properly through it all.
BurgyGreen
Guest
Well after their last two games it's hard to see them as favourites. The loss last night will have smashed their confidence. As good as they are on paper, they seem to just be a poor chasing side.
DavSA
Guest
I am not sure Australia have the best team on paper two dogs . One of the best yes. Very thin in the spin department and don't bat very deep . Too much is made in this tournament of the Proteas chockers tag . This is not where they want to bury that demon it is at World Cups that they are so desperate to win , where they have never . There already is a Champions Trophy in the cabinet albeit quite a while back now.
twodogs
Guest
Australia have theoretically the best side by far on paper. A team of stars make star team necessarily not but should the groove thing happen, it's curtains for all other hopefuls.
TheCunningLinguistic
Guest
It will be Oz vs the Poms, and Oz will win due to a far better bowling line up. I'm pretty confident on this, which means it won't happen! ;-)