Not in love with the shape of you: Warrenball's statuesque stagnation

Warren Gatland is the least Kiwi of Kiwi coaches.

During the most recent British and Irish Lions press conference, he explained rugby to the attending journalists: “The modern game of rugby is about getting across the gain line, trying to get front foot ball, and playing to space if that is possible.”

We can look to Gatland’s body of work and see precisely how he sets about getting his teams to accomplish this. There’s big ball carriers picking up at the base and coming around the edges only into channels one and two, to set ruck targets close enough to the cleaners that a turnover is unlikely without infringing, only feed the (even bigger) backs after a few phases, but cutting in to those same two channels, until the 15-metre channels on the sidelines open up – if ever – where (huge) wings exploit mismatches.

In the red zone, repeat, until a three or five or seven point haul is won.

If his teams struggle to get over the gain line in the first three attempts, his halves kick up-and-unders, with hot pursuit.

If his teams fail to win the battle of the collisions, they do actually lose every time – thus, Gatland has invented a tautology? A self-fulfilling paradigm?

There are a few problems with the Warrenball thesis.

First, we play post-modern rugby now. He is stuck in modern times. The physical margins and edges in power have shrunk. Almost every top tier Test team has an identical shape of pack. Big ball carrier? Meet big tackler.

(Mike Egerton/PA Wire)

Second, if the main predictor of game results were only “gain line success: and setting a sequential series of forward-facing rucks, until defensive lines tire and stretch and break in the second half, this would be an easy game to select for, coach and win.

But as Gatland will soon see, teams from New Zealand will force the gain line backwards with a rush defence not seen (in its speed and power) in the Six Nations or domestic club competitions.

Therefore, just because Owen Farrell does his best Rohan Janse van Rensburg impression and busts Sonny Bill Williams backward a couple of metres, the Lions’ loose forwards and big cleaners will still be tracking back or sideways.

Also, there won’t be any attritional value to Warrenball when playing superior-fitness opponents. Any Lion spill or loose kick ceded to the opposition will be punished; with as many as thirty per cent of those resulting in points or red zone possession to the Kiwis, where they can camp for a good long while.

Finally, the garryowen kick-chase against a New Zealand team fails many times because of the receiving team’s expert escorting schemes, using diagonal fade retreats, which hamstring the chasers just enough to set the magic men from the back free.

. (AAP Image/Ross Setford)

Warrenball also places a high degree of importance on snaffling – not just from his designated fetcher and favourite player Sam Warburton – but from front rowers and the rest of the pack. And he always fields team with super-accurate placekickers: better than the All Blacks usually have.

The All Blacks and their peers face this type of breakdown-and-penalty approach all year and every season when they play the Jaguares, Stormers, Lions, Brumbies, and Sharks. Not going to surprise them.

What new thing can Gatland bring?

Can his ‘shape’ of attack trouble Steve Hansen’s defensive schemes enough to score four or more tries in each Test? No.

So, is it really Shaunball that is going to be the key here? Try to keep the All Blacks to 20 or less points, and win it off the tee?

I don’t see it. I am not in love with this approach; this shape is not going to worry Aaron Smith, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Aaron Cruden, Israel Dagg, Ben Smith, and the other visionaries of the All Black backs.

As for the ‘roll over you like a tank’ method, that can only get you through to halftime; in the end, you will have play in more parts of the field, because of the vagaries of kicks, restarts, turnovers, cross-kicks, offloads, and the inevitable All Black line breaks.