Australian cricket was in a dark place on 15 November, 2016.
The team had lost the first two Tests of the Australian summer and fallen to a humiliating series defeat to the rampaging South Africans.
The cricket watching public had just witnessed back-to-back batting collapses that resulted in an innings loss for their team donning the baggy green. A truly horrible defeat after conceding a more than manageable first innings total to the men from another great southern land.
For the cost of their 20 wickets the team had faced a mere 528 deliveries. A wicket every 26 balls. This was the lowest ratio of wickets to balls in a home Test since Don Bradman’s debut in 1928.
As those last two Australian batsmen trudged from that cold Hobart field the grey skies of doom closed overhead. The media pundits inside the shed had sharpened their proverbial scribes. A lack of skill. No application. No desire or pride in the rich history of the national team. The end of Test cricket in Australia.
What would become of Steve Smith’s team?
But as has oft been written – it is always darkest just before the day dawneth. The captain bravely faced the baying media and publicly drew a line in the sand.
To the surprise of many, this desperate call in the dark was heeded by the powers of Australian cricket. The same circle of suits and boardroom elite many feared lost to the gods of T20 capitalism. Selectors fell on their sword, failing players were dropped, promising youth selected.
The results followed.
The third Test against South Africa fell to Australia. Then Pakistan became cannon fodder for a once great team regaining its swagger. But, it was the series against India, on the sub-continent in March, where this new Australian team finally found the drive and application the cricket watching public had longed craved.
The traits of determination and aptitude long feared lost in this new era of high octane big bash cricket.
So now, with only six months before the first ball is bowled in anger, the Australian cricket team is once again on the precipice of regaining the Ashes from the old enemy. While we can wax lyrical in generalities about this improvement we can identify three key areas that will once again secure the sacred urn for Australia:
1. The fast bowling cartel
The awesome speed and left arm swing of Mitchell Starc, the raw aggression of James Pattinson, the unerring accuracy of Josh Hazlewood and the ‘once in a generation’ skills of Pat Cummins.
This fast bowling unit, now coming into their prime, may just be the strongest Test cricket has seen in a generation.
While some cricket writers, perhaps in a mood of giddy excitement, have suggested that the selectors may ‘quadruple down’ on four pacemen in Brisbane and Perth, the strong likelihood is that the four will be competing among each other to not be the drinks vest come November.
Next to the Australian line-up, the pace line-up of England, still led by the swing of James Anderson and the line and length of Stuart Broad, presents a distinctly pedestrian and ageing façade.
While there are strong supporting pacemen in Mark Wood and Jake Ball, plus the all-round abilities of Ben Stokes and Chris Woakes, the lack of searing pace from the lead duo may result in long spells on these hard and flat Australian wickets.
While these English players are conditioned to excel on the seaming and swinging decks of England, these same skills are generally wasted on the flat, hard decks of the Southern Hemisphere.
2. Nathan Lyon
While it may seem controversial to suggest that an off-spinner could be the difference in Australian conditions, the increasing ability for Nathan Lyon, to not only bowl tightly but to a clearly defined plan, will be crucial to successfully breaking English partnerships (and hearts) in Australian conditions.
The bowling numbers don’t lie, at the age of only 29 years he has now played 69 Tests for 247 wickets with a strong Test bowling average of 33.39.
While he may be walking in the domineering shadow of Shane Warne, and the constant media speculation about his place in the side, the ability of Lyon to turn matches in the favour of Australia has increased markedly.
This is in comparison to the sorry state of English spin. Since the retirement of Graeme Swann, and the problems suffered by Monty Panesar, the England Test team has relied most often on the bits and pieces spin bowling of Moeen Ali.
While Moeen has been serviceable in the role of the key spinner, he is nevertheless a batsman at heart, and his inability to bowl to a consistent plan has left England with a distinct lack of options.
If the Australian batsman can dominate Moeen, forcing him from the attack like they did Graeme Swann in 2013, then the leadership skills of the new English captain will be sorely tested.
It will be crucial for England’s chances that he can hold an end for prolonged periods to allow the rotation of the England pace bowlers – an area in which Lyon excels for the Australians.
3. The Gabba
From Nasser Hussein’s error of judgment at the coin toss, to the first ball bowled by Steve Harmison, to the destruction of the England middle order by Mitchell Johnson in 2013, The Gabba has been a graveyard for visiting English cricket teams.
The pace of the wicket, combined with the heat of the early Queensland summer, provide the most foreign of playing conditions for the visiting English. Conditions in stark contrast to the swing of Trent Bridge or the chill and seam of Headingley.
If Australia can once again make a strong statement in the first Test, with the pace and bounce of Perth to follow, like 2006-07 and 2013-14, it could be a long hot summer for the touring English.
Jayhaitch
Guest
Australia start favourites due to home advantage but it will be a close series. The Aussies have given England a massive advantage in allowing them a warm up game in Townsville before the Brissie test - usually they're made to play in the cold of Canberra or Hobart before changing to the humidity of Queensland, but not this time. It's also possible that the Gabba wicket will need to be replaced by a drop-in pitch because of the damage caused by the Adele concert and playing NRL on it - hence it won't be as quick. England's bowling attack isn't as callow as you think - Anderson probably won't play but Wood is genuinely quick, Woakes deceptively fast and can reverse swing and Ball, Finn and possibly Plunkett can generate steepling bounce. Broad generally does well in Ashes contests too. The game changer could be Rashid - he hasn't cracked Test cricket yet but can be destructive, particularly on hard and bouncy wickets. I suspect that both Adelaide and Sydney will spin. The batting is more brittle - I'm not convinced by Hameed but Jennings should do well at 3 and will be used to bouncy pitches from his upbringing in South Africa. Potentially having Bairstow bat at 7 is a massive advantage. He and Stokes can destroy an attack in a session. Australia's bowling attack could be the difference. Hazlewood and Pattinson are brilliant and Starc and Cummins can run through teams. But as yesterday showed, players like Root and Stokes like the ball to come onto the bat, so raw pace doesn't always work. Plus all 4 bowlers can't play in the same team and Australia lack a decent fourth seamer who can bat at 6. A final thought: when England won Down Under in 2010/11, it was not through express pace but through tight bowling and racking up huge batting totals. It's possible that Cook, Root, Stokes and Bairstow could so the same this time around. But I suspect that Australia will just sneak it.
13th Man
Guest
David you've lost it. First you suggested that England if they win this tournament will become the Greatest ODI side of all time, even though England has never won a World Cup and Australia have won 4 of the last 5. Now your suggesting that England will win 2-1 or 3-1 IN AUSTRALIA. It's not gonna happen. England's bowlers are toothless, there batting is inconsistent and Australia are a completely different team on home soil. Warner can't bat away from home but in Australia he is World Class, same as Khawaja. Smith will outscore Root at home and our bowlers are a damn sight more threatening than yours. The one English bowler that is dangerous in Australia is Broad and there is no guarantees he will even get picked. Australia to win 3-1 (England to maybe win the Day night test when there is actually something for the bowlers)
TheCunningLinguistic
Guest
I'm gonna screenshot this post, David, and then let's talk post-series. I hope you will enjoy the taste of humble pie.
David a Pom
Guest
Anyone who believes Australia will win the ashes simply doesn't have a solid grasp of cricket or hasn't been following closely lately. England to win 2-1 or 3-1.
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
There's only really one stand out reason. This Ashes series is in Australia. Don't need to look any further than that.
davSA
Guest
It is going to be a terrific series. England have a very good squad but one senses The Gabba and Australia's track record there will hold sway ..
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
"And in the last series in England the Pommie quicks gave our boys serious trouble." Only on the green decks .... on the more batting-friendly surfaces in England the home quicks struggled and were outperformed by the Aussie bowlers, which is why Australia comfortably won the 2 Tests in that series played on flatter tracks. Apart from perhaps the day-night Test, the rest of the decks this summer won't be seam-friendly at all, they'll be much more similar to the pitches on which Australia dominated the Poms in England.
JohnB
Guest
They have, but while you put the positive side of the case, the negative side is Cook had one great series against Australia what is now a fair while ago, and has been moderate otherwise; Root will be under a lot of pressure as captain and carrying a pretty thin batting lineup; it's too much to ask Bairstow to bat and keep; the rest of the specialist batting is who; Stokes is a good player but not immune to injury; a bits and pieces player like Ali rarely succeeds in Australia and they have no other spinner; the 2 main bowlers are getting to the end of their careers and in Andersen's case is unlikely to do better than he did last time, which was poor, and in Broad's case will be lucky to do as well, which was good in one game and only ok otherwise; leaving a lot of pressure on the 3rd seamer, who has either not played here (Woakes, Wood, Ball) or is very fragile (Finn). All of that's a recipe for a repeat of the last tour. Now what will actually happen is more likely to fall somewhere in between the 2 extremes of your version and my version - I'd guess nearer the negative end, but that's no doubt just the bias talking.
Ouch
Guest
"We'll have a bowl thanks". Was that the worst decision Nasser Hussain ever made?
Bucks
Guest
Australia's team for the Gabba (barring injury) should read; Warner, Renshaw, Khawaja, Smith (C), Handscomb, Maxwell, Wade (wk), Starc, Cummins, Hazlewood, Lyon. Pattinson (12th)???
Trebla
Guest
The England team has a few good players. They will be primed for the Ashes. I predict a good close series. Cook may see it as his final hurrah. He has been hitting centuries galore this season. Root may see it as his defining series, a series where he dominates with big centuries (like Kohli a few years back). Stokes may use it to add a few million rupees to his IPL price tag. Bairstow promises greatness. And in the last series in England the Pommie quicks gave our boys serious trouble. Same bowlers this tour.
Thunder Nation
Guest
Warner ainty no good vs the swinging ball Uzzy is no certainty of starting Expect Maxwell in the XI for very little bowling and quick batting and thne out
BurgyGreen
Guest
Biggest reason for me is that Smith, Warner and Khawaja will cash in big at home against the English attack.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Hi Martin, I agree on Lyon being a major advantage for Australia if, that is, he is near his best form. When he's getting heavy revs on the ball and bowling well wide of off stump, rather than at the stumps, he is very effective in Aussie conditions. Lyon likes playing against England - he has a very good record in the Ashes, averaging 29.8 with the ball from his 13 Tests. He completely outbowled Moeen in the last Ashes. And you only have to look at the past records of visiting spinners in Australia to know that Moeen will likely be cannon fodder in this Ashes - if Moeen averaged 45 at home I can't see him averaging less than 50 with the ball in Australia.