Irresistible force versus immovable object? Nah, not going to happen

By The Crowd / Roar Guru

As we move towards the first Test at the Garden of Eden, global rugby is abuzz with the pending clash of styles between the rush/press defence of Warrenball versus the wide running and unstructured play of Hansen’s All Blacks.

There is the possibility of BIL strangling the free-flowing ABs out of the game.

It’s a really nice narrative, but is highly unlikely to be the way the game will pan out – especially for the first hour.

Will New Zealand allow Beauden Barrett to become a potential target for the BIL rush defence without a forward platform?. Equally unlikely, I would think.

Since prior to Rugby World Cup in 2011, the ABs, and even more so under Hansen, set out to win the battle of the gain line, and it is difficult to recall a match during his era when the Darkness have not dominated this aspect of the game.

The tackling output of the All Blacks’ two locks is best in class. They have a set of gain-line tacklers who know their job is to win the opening battle before the backs get a turn.

But the big question is how will New Zealand handle the excellent BIL press/rush defence? It’s certainly not the first time they have had to face it. Most recently South Africa in the Rugby World Cup semi and the Irish in Dublin, both times they met fire with fire at the gain-line, showed excellent patience and stayed in the arm wrestle and took their chances when they came up.

They scored five tries to nil across the two matches. As in both these games, the fighting lines on Saturday will be in channels one and two.

So the set piece is going to be critical as to who gets the gain line upper hand.

This tour BIL have looked excellent on their own ball, but to date they have not really faced a side with multiple options against them.

Scrum time – bring it on this is going to be a beauty. Said it before and will repeat, am far from convinced that Mako Vunipola is top drawer international standard at scrum time, and while Franks is not what one would call a destructive tighthead, he does produce a very stable platform with a high pressure push.

This is going to be a key battle. Maybe the BIL will surprise on the upside here, but they didn’t dominate against the Highlanders or Blues, and when Mr Reynal did allow the scrums to pack in Christchurch, I counted only one where the BIL got a decent shove on.

And also of interest, in the Blues, Highlanders, Crusaders games the BIL conceded more turnovers than their opposition, a contest up front it seems causes the BIL a few handling issues too.

So the first hour will be the battle of the big boys, head to head, bash each other to bits and see how it turns out.

So what do we expect the last 20 to look like as the game opens up? The first question is can the BIL go 80 when they have a scrap up front on their hands first, it certainly hasn’t been an issue for them versus the Maori and the Chiefs where they dominated in the Eight. In the game where they were challenged in the pack it wasn’t quite so flash. They didn’t score in the second half versus the Crusaders, had two penalties second half versus the Blues, and couldn’t get a point in the last 25 against the Highlanders when it really mattered.

Rather than putting his faith in the ability of his side to contain and wear down the All Blacks over 80, Gatland has introduced Williams and Daly hoping that the same type of counter attack that worked against a 14-man Chiefs on Tuesday will turn up trumps again in the first Test.

I just wonder whether in the stare down battle of tactics, Gatland just blinked.

The Crowd Says:

2017-06-24T05:59:09+00:00

taylorman

Roar Guru


Ha ha yes that's right I think I used the word cremated, which it was. I used to look forward to those matches as they competed with Wales etc but here...it's like they give in before they start. Hour and a half left...!?

2017-06-24T05:54:48+00:00

taylorman

Roar Guru


Yes good win by Fiji. Oz leading Italy at half time. Nice Folau try from the Hunt pass.

2017-06-24T05:33:14+00:00

Beezlebub

Guest


Watch the Lions delays as they get tired, someone will be on the deck & watching the clock tick over until the lads all get their breath back....

2017-06-24T05:29:30+00:00

The Neutral View From Sweden

Roar Guru


How different do you think the Lions would have been viewed if they had lost 5 in a row? Well, it did not happen, so it hard to know. But surely it would not have been positive. But I think as long as they don't get whitewashed over and over again, the Lions will continue to fascinate. The Lions concept - so far - is set up to help the SH unions in all aspects (they face a scratch side and get a huge financial boost) so that the Lions can compete should always be applauded. About 2013, I remember that Halfpenny missed a kick in the last minute of the second test, that would have secured the series. Overall the first two matches were very even.

2017-06-24T05:21:35+00:00

The Neutral View From Sweden

Roar Guru


Well well well, who has World Champs back then Moa? And there is always a big hype when the Lions comes to town. Nothing new under the sun here.

2017-06-24T05:18:57+00:00

The Neutral View From Sweden

Roar Guru


As I remember it it was everyone else who predicted that Samoa will get beaten with 15-20 points. You, on the other hand, said that Samoa always is soft and easy to beat for the AB's at home. And you sure nailed that prediction.

2017-06-24T05:16:37+00:00

The Neutral View From Sweden

Roar Guru


It is hard to get the legend status before the series. Those old names you mentioned got their legend status after the beat the AB's (and Springboks), not before. In two weeks time, we will know if there are any Lions players the deserves to be ranked ahead of players in the AB's. And you are right, a couple of Lions have to step up and deliver at a level they have never done before. But they are aware of this and have prepared for that. They will not die wondering what if, they will give a real go I think.

2017-06-24T05:11:13+00:00

The Neutral View From Sweden

Roar Guru


I think there has been more interest in the Lions because we all been able to see how they have built their team the last 2-3 weeks. Everyone knows that the AB's are the number one in all aspects. And I think it is more here at the Roar the AB's have been "ignored" the last few weeks (not in the comment section though), all the big newspapers up north have published several articles about the Mighty All Blacks. In my personal ranking over best players in the world for 2016, I had Ben Smith as number one and Dane Coles as number two. I am massive fan of Coles and I think he has forever changed the way Hookers can/should play. He is a once in a lifetime player (just like Michael Jones changed the flanker position forever). The loss of Coles is a big one, but to able to replace him with a solid hooker from Crusaders is great for the AB's. I expect set pieces to work very well for the AB's. Barrett is very much capable of destroying any side, but he needs lots of help and space for it to happen. I expect him to play pretty deep today, like a QB in American Football, and use his cross kicks just as much as his speed. Whitelock/Retallick is the best lock combo I have ever seen. It is a bit sad the Itoje is not playing since he and Kruis are a very gelled unit. Maybe we will see that in Test 2.

2017-06-24T04:47:18+00:00

taylorman

Roar Guru


Neutral one of the very real possible outcomes is this AB side absolutely bowls this side over. Versus Samoa we were saying 15-20 plus. Nobody but nobody was saying 78-0. That is what the ABs are capable of. The Lions are the unknown. They could win, they could be hammered. The ABs are up for this so the Lions will have to be, or...goodnight nurse.

2017-06-24T04:41:50+00:00

taylorman

Roar Guru


Yes but this is NZ. The others are not comparable here. One test in the last ten here is the stat. Take 2013, the Lions were one penalty kick from losing thevseries 2-0. They clung on and beat them in the third. Same year NZ beat oz 3-0, the Boks 2-0. The Lions had the worst result of the three. The other thing is this Lions side doesn't have individuals who would be considered greats of the game outside the Northern hemisphere. Only two or three would be considered as strong contenders for this AB side so their ability to compete here has always been in their ability to combine as a team. Itoje, Farrell, Murray, and perhaps one or two props. The 71 side had legends of the game, Edwards who is still considered by some as the greatest halfback of all time. In a series like this you need individuals to stand up and stand out, you need heroes. All I've seen so far is good teamwork and a few good individual efforts.

2017-06-24T04:37:42+00:00

moaman

Guest


Interestingly...the Lions hype prior to the 2005 series was very similar to this time around.

2017-06-24T04:35:13+00:00

Fionn

Guest


2001 was an excellent series, I admit. In 2005 the Lions were annihilated. In 2009 the Boks won the first Test pretty comfortably, won the second Test in one of the best matches I've ever seen and seemed not to be able/want to get up for the Third so well. I definitely think it is fair to say that the Boks improved throughout the year (remember that was their first hit out and they weren't as in-form – 3-0ing the All Blacks that you was incredible). In 2013 I thought the Wallabies were poor without being awful. The game plan was just really poor and they lacked a fly-half. Deans had really run out of ideas by 2012/13. How much they got annihilated by both the Boks and All Blacks indicates how poor they were until Link got it together on the EOYT. I agree they are a LOT better than the 2017 Wallabies though.. It's interesting to think that if Kurtley Beale hadn't missed those horrible kicks in the first Test (or if Lealiifano hadn't been injured) then the Lions probably would have lost four in a row (likely 5 after this series...). How different do you think the Lions would have been viewed if they had lost 5 in a row?

2017-06-24T04:32:25+00:00

The Neutral View From Sweden

Roar Guru


That is fair point T-man. As said before, I like that there is a golden standard in NZ and anyone who really wants respect needs to prove themselevs in NZ. And I believe the Lions player and coaches like it also. It is nice to win a series in Australia, but that immortal legendary status can only be achieved in NZ at the moment. Great win by Fiji over Scotland 27-22. Very entertaining Test.

2017-06-24T04:30:15+00:00

Highlander

Guest


Very good Thugby - and good luck v Italy not that you should need it. Local version of that joke has our ex Prime Minister Robert Muldoon arriving at the Pearly Gates - St Peter - Can I help you Muldoon - I think your sitting in my chair.

2017-06-24T04:27:03+00:00

taylorman

Roar Guru


Whereas I don't call this Lions side strong at all until I see them play test rugby, then I'll decide. Until then their status is unknown. The ABs are a strong side, because they've proven it time after time. In term of other players who would make this Lions side, yes about seven or eight I can think of, including Launchberry, picamoles, Etzebeth, crevey, Pocock and a couple of others.

2017-06-24T04:26:15+00:00

WEST

Roar Guru


Neutral.. Just seems strange that not a lot has been said about the All Blacks this week, its all the Lions defence and the Lions ability to push the All Blacks... The ABs on edge and nervous bla bla. IMO... The two hookers will have a major role to play in this series. For the past year, this was being billed as Dane Coles vs Dylan Hartley or Rory Best, yet here we are. Strangely, this is George’s first ever career test start, and what an occasion it is. Taylor is slightly more experienced and is hugely respected, but the bottom line is that he is not Dane Coles. The line-out will be a key battle, and this duo will need to find their targets. Another battle is Owen Farrell vs Beauden BarrettThe best in the business, Barrett, aims to push on after an award-winning 2016 season. Can he continue to drive the All Blacks on? Up against him is Owen Farrell, the 25-year-old who has played the majority of his test rugby in recent times at 12, but has shown time and time again for Saracens that he is a truly world-class out-half. If Barrett puts in the performance he is capable of, the Lions will be in trouble. There is huge pressure on Farrell to pull the strings. Also... If Kruis and Jones can disrupt the All Blacks set-piece, they will give their side a fighting chance. Many are expecting the Lions to play a kicking game, so the line-out will be key. However, Retallick and Whitelock aren’t revered as the best lock pairing in world rugby for no reason. This is going to be an interesting one…

2017-06-24T04:08:34+00:00

Dave

Guest


It isn't raining forecast to rain for the match, ball might be a bit wet is all.

2017-06-24T03:21:31+00:00

The Neutral View From Sweden

Roar Guru


Hello WEST No doubt that the team that wins the first Test will get a boost of confidence. But it is three-match series, and today both sides will show their full hand. And since both teams have excellent depth in their squads, both have a good chance to come up with something for Test 2 to counter whatever lost them that first Test. The AB's attack is the best in the world. Everyone knows that. But everyone knows you gotta win the battle up front if the backline is gonna make a serious difference. I think Lions attack has improved all through this series. And they have created chances non-stop during this tour. Obviously, they need to step another level today, but I can see that happening. I think they look as prepared as they possibly can. Don't count me among those who don't rate the AB's defense. And ignore all the pundits' comments, what really matters is what the Lions players and coaches have said. Since day one they have been clear about that they are facing the best team in the world - in all aspects - today. And that is what they prepared for the last 4-5 weeks. If you look you will find close to hundred comments from different players and coaches from the Lions who had not said a bad word about the AB's They know they are up for the ultimate challenge in rugby. Gatland comments at the pressers are more theater and is a side show of insignificant importance.

2017-06-24T03:08:36+00:00

The Neutral View From Sweden

Roar Guru


Ofc we are speculating, that is all we can do for another couple of hours. But I don't think I am able to anything else right now, I am trying to arrange a breakfast here at home and o far it has been a total failure ;) The Lions touring record in recent times is not that bad. 1993: 1-2 against the AB's. I did not see that series, but to my understanding, it was a very competitive series. 1997: 2-1 against the SB's. And that was the World Champs back then. 2001. 1-2 against the WB's. Probably the best WB's side ever. All three Tests were very very even. 2005. 0-3 against the AB's. That is the one that really sticks out. Total failure. 2009. 1-2 against the SB's. Again against the World Champs. All three Test were super competitive. And that Boks team clean swept the AB's later that year. 2013. 2-1 against the WB's. Was the WB's really that weak that everyone says? I don't think so. Neither the Boks or the AB's blew the WB's of the park back then. It is an excuse that is made in hindsight I say.

2017-06-24T03:03:00+00:00

WEST

Roar Guru


Neutral, the first test is massive and it could have a big influence on the remaining two test as far as phycological warfare is concerned. But ultimately defence decides games, the Lions have an incredible defence and line speed which potentially will be able to stop the All Blacks from running riot, but that’s all it will do – stop them from running wild but might not stop them from winning. The All Blacks have the best attack on the planet, easily. The Lions attack seems to barely exist at this stage. Yes, they have managed the odd try that would be worthy of a SR match but kicking penalties and having a strong set piece won’t be enough to rattle the All Blacks. I’ve noticed lately which has left me a little confused is that nobody seems to be talking about the All Blacks’ defence, which is arguably better than that of the Lions, maybe not by much but it’s still better. The only thing the Lions have in their favour is the breakdown. Taking the tackle is something the All Blacks seem to be avoiding like they’re allergic to it as of late. Almost everything is off-loaded, even if it doesn’t look pretty and even if it doesn’t lead to a line break. This messy, creative, anything goes type of play is what is going to guarantee the All Blacks success at Eden Park. Even when the Lions do manage to effectively make a tackle, the rucks are so fast that I just can’t see them being able to cope. All that the All Blacks need is a hint of a chance to spot a gap and they’ll punish you. The Lions may be capable of stopping 95% of the carries they face, hell maybe even 99% but it’s what they don’t stop which will ensure their demise. Putting up high balls and applying a territory focused strategy won’t work and neither will slotting the odd penalty. If the Lions want to manage even a single test victory on this tour against the All Blacks they’re going to have to find their attacking flair. Actually, they’re going to have to do more than find it, they’re going to have to apply it relentlessly until something clicks and they seem dangerous from anywhere on the field and not just when they’ve reached the twenty-two. It’s more or less a certainty that the All Blacks will win the tour. Do I think the Lions could potentially snare an upset and snatch a single victory? Maybe, but it won’t be this weekend at Eden Park. Eden Park is the stronghold of New Zealand rugby, a field where the All Blacks are normally at their absolute best. No matter how hopeful everyone seems to be at the moment I just can’t see this game going any other way than a conclusive win for the All Blacks. To beat the World Cup champions, you have to catch them off guard and I’m sure that leading into this test they are more than ready, this is a game being played at a ground that almost makes the All Blacks seem invincible.

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